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固定收益部市场日报-20251201
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-12-01 07:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Maintain buy on FAEACO 12.814 Perp due to its decent risk - return profile, larger cushion against the covenanted adj. net gearing ratio, and expected cash inflow from project deliveries in Australia and the UK [2] - Maintain buy on MEITUA 3.05 10/28/30 and MEITUA 0 04/27/28 (CB) as Meituan's overall credit profile remains robust with a strong net cash position, despite near - term headwinds [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, there was small better buying on JP/AU financial names and TW lifers; balanced two - way flows on Chinese AMCs 2 - 5yr notes which closed 1 - 2bps tighter; MEITUAs were unchanged to 3bps wider [2] - In FRN space, PBs were buying Chinese banks, leasing, and SEA names, while AM flippers were taking profit; FAEACO 12.814 Perp dropped 5.6pts; LASUDE 26 increased 0.5pt; CWAHK 26 - 30 edged 0.1 - 0.5pt firmer [2] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 lowered 0.8 - 1.3pts; LNGFOR 29 was 1.7pts lower; ROADKG 28 edged 0.6 - 0.9pt higher; AMs were buying ZHHFGR and selling CPDEV [2] - Yankee AT1s were 0.1pt firmer, Japanese AT1s and insurance subs were largely stable, ACPM 5 1/8 Perp was 0.6pt higher; in SE Asia, some bonds were unchanged to 0.5pt higher [2] - This morning, BBLTB senior and JP financials tightened 1 - 2bps; VNKRLE 27 - 29 recovered 0.5 - 1.2pts; some bonds were 0.6 - 1.1pts higher, while others were 0.7 - 1.0pt lower [4] - MEITUAs were unchanged to 3bps wider post 3Q25 results announcement last Friday and unchanged this morning; IDASALs were unchanged this morning [4] Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (+0.54%), Dow (+0.61%), and Nasdaq (+0.65%) were higher; UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.47%/3.59%/4.02%/4.67% [7] Desk Analyst Comments on Meituan - Meituan's 3Q25 adj. EBITDA dropped to negative RMB14.8bn due to the price war in China's food delivery market, with intense competition weighing on profitability [8] - The aggressive price war has eroded sector - wide margins, and the pressure is expected to persist until the competitive landscape becomes more rational, possibly through regulatory intervention [8] - Meituan's overall credit profile remains robust with a net cash position of RMB90.0bn as of Sep'25, which should cushion near - term earnings impact; near - term pressure on MEITUAs is expected, but further volatility presents better entry opportunities [9] Meituan's Financial Performance - Meituan's 3Q25 total revenue increased 2% yoy to RMB95.5bn, with core local commerce segment revenue decreasing 2.8% yoy to RMB67.4bn and turning into an operating loss of RMB14.1bn; new initiative segment revenue rose 15.9% yoy to RMB28.0bn, but segment loss increased 24.5% yoy to RMB1.3bn [12] - In 3Q25, selling and marketing expenses increased 90.1% yoy to RMB34.3bn, and R&D expenses increased 31.0% to RMB6.9bn; Meituan reported an operating loss of RMB19.7bn and negative adj. EBITDA of RMB14.8bn [13] - Meituan expects losses in the core local commerce segment and at the consolidated level to continue in 4Q25; the operating loss in the new initiative segment is expected to widen in 4Q25 for overseas expansion [13] - Meituan's liquidity position remained solid with a net cash position of RMB90.0bn as of Sep'25, down from RMB106.7bn as of Dec'24, and it had an average net cash position of RMB70.6bn in the past five years [14] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [17] - Agricultural Bank of China Limited Tokyo Branch has a pipeline issue of 3 - year tenor with a coupon of SOFR + 100 and an issue rating of A1/-/- [18] News and Market Color - Last Friday, 70 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB59bn; in Nov'25, 2,133 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB2,286bn, a 17.8% yoy increase [22] - China Jinmao pledged a Shanghai property asset valued at RMB4.8bn as collateral for RMB9.9bn of syndicated loans [22] - China Water Affairs 1HFY26 EBITDA dropped 18.6% yoy to HKD2.2bn [22] - eHi Car 3Q25 fleet utilization rate rose 4.9 pct pt to 72.3% [22] - Seazen issued RMB616mn ABS backed by a Shanghai shopping mall [22] - HD Hyundai Heavy and its partner failed to win Poland's KRW8tn submarine project [22] - Mineral Industri Indonesia repurchased USD95.8mn of IDASAL 6.53 11/15/28 [22] - Melco Resorts Finance 9M25 operating revenue was up 14% yoy, and Studio City 9M25 operating revenue was up 10% yoy [22] - A Hong Kong tycoon seeks to sell some Rosewood Hotels [22] - Vedanta Resources is looking to raise USD600mn bank loan for refinance and secure INR20bn via INR - denominated NCDs at its subsidiary [22] - Vanke provided its entire stake in its property management arm as loan collateral to its controlling shareholder [22]