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高盛:中国_6 月贸易增长加速
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-15 01:58
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on China's trade growth, with exports and imports both showing unexpected increases in June [1][9][10]. Core Insights - China's trade growth accelerated in June, with exports rising by 5.8% year-over-year (yoy) and imports increasing by 1.1% yoy, surpassing consensus expectations [1][2][9]. - The rebound in US-bound exports is a significant factor, attributed to tariff reductions following US-China trade talks [1][9]. - The trade surplus reached a record high of US$114.8 billion in June, up from US$103.2 billion in May [1][3][9]. Summary by Sections Trade Growth - Year-over-year, exports increased by 5.8% in June compared to 4.8% in May, while imports rose by 1.1% compared to a decline of 3.4% in May [2][9]. - Sequentially, exports grew by 0.8% non-annualized in June, recovering from a decline of 0.7% in May, and imports increased by 0.9% non-annualized, up from a 6.0% decline in May [2][9]. Regional Analysis - Exports to the US rebounded significantly, while exports to the EU and some emerging markets declined [10]. - Chinese imports from the US saw the largest increase in June, while imports from Latin America and ASEAN fell [10]. Product Categories - Export values for automobiles and housing-related products rose, with automobile exports jumping by 23.1% yoy in June [11]. - Import values for energy goods and metal ores increased, although imports of semiconductors, automobiles, and agricultural products declined notably [12].