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Q3 Earnings Outlook Remains Positive: A Closer Look
ZACKS· 2025-09-17 23:06
Core Viewpoint - Overall earnings expectations for Q3 2025 show a positive trend, with anticipated earnings growth of +5.1% and revenue growth of +6.0% for the S&P 500 index, although concerns exist regarding whether these expectations are too high, particularly in the Tech and Finance sectors [2][5][12]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - For Q3 2025, total S&P 500 index earnings are projected to increase by +5.1% year-over-year, supported by +6.0% higher revenues [5]. - The Magnificent 7 group is expected to see a significant earnings increase of +12.2% on +14.6% higher revenues compared to the same period last year [5]. - Excluding the Tech sector, the S&P 500 index earnings growth would only be +2.0% [5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Five of the 16 Zacks sectors, including Finance, Technology, Energy, and Retail, have seen modest increases in earnings estimates since the start of Q3 [4]. - The Tech sector is expected to achieve +11.9% earnings growth and +12.5% revenue growth in Q3 [6]. - Conversely, the remaining 11 Zacks sectors are experiencing downward pressure on earnings estimates, particularly in Medical, Basic Materials, Construction, and Transportation [6]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Microsoft is projected to report earnings of $3.65 per share in Q3, reflecting a +10.6% increase year-over-year, with revenues expected to reach $75.37 billion, a +14.9% increase [7]. - Nvidia's Q3 EPS estimate has risen by +2.6% over the past month and +4.4% over the last two months [8]. - Oracle's strong backlog numbers suggest a continuation of positive trends, particularly in the AI sector, although the impact on non-tech areas remains uncertain [13].