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中国白酒追踪-市场情绪从低位回升,需求仍在逐步改善;茅台 - 五粮液批发价走弱-China Spirits Tracker_ Market sentiment recovering from low, demand still improving gradually; Moutai_Wuliangye wholesale price weakens
2025-08-26 01:19
Summary of China Spirits Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The spirits industry is experiencing a recovery in market sentiment, with investors adopting a "worst is over" perspective as the impact of anti-graft policies normalizes [1][1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) gap between spirits and A-share indices is nearing a decade low, approximately 2-3x, which is an 18% premium compared to the last decade average of 103% [1][1] - Northbound fund flows into spirits stocks remain low as of the end of Q2 2025 [1][1] Demand and Consumption Trends - Retail demand is gradually improving month-on-month, although banquet consumption is still significantly affected by anti-graft policies, with an estimated 30-50% of commercial banquet demand under policy impact [1][1] - A 30% decline in retail sales for spirits was observed in August due to these ongoing impacts [1][1] - Distributors are cautious with channel stocking, leading to minimal prepayments in July and August [1][1] Company-Specific Insights - **Shede Spirits**: Despite policy challenges, management reported a sequential improvement in retail demand, with some SKUs showing positive bottle-open ratios year-on-year in August [1][1] - The company remains cautiously optimistic about sell-through performance during the upcoming peak seasons [1][1] - Regional performance varies, with Jiangsu and Guangdong under pressure, while Shandong, Hebei, and Sichuan show resilience [1][1] Price Trends - **Moutai**: The wholesale price of original case Feitian Moutai decreased by RMB 65 from RMB 1,910 to RMB 1,845, while unpacked prices fell by RMB 55 from RMB 1,875 to RMB 1,820 [5][5] - Other Moutai SKUs also saw price declines, with significant drops in various products [5][5] - **Wuliangye**: The wholesale price decreased by RMB 90 to RMB 860 and RMB 80 to RMB 835 for different product lines [5][5] - **Guojiao 1573**: Prices remained stable at RMB 835 [5][5] Market Focus - The upcoming peak retail season, particularly around the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6, 2025, is a key focus for the industry [1][1] - The direction of future policies, including property-related policies and clarifications on anti-graft measures, will significantly influence market dynamics [1][1] Additional Developments - Moutai launched a new full-case specification on August 14, 2025, priced 30% lower than previous offerings [17][17] - ZJLD's chairman is actively building personal branding and engaging with merchants to boost sales [17][17] - Gujing launched a new product targeting younger consumers, emphasizing a minimalist design and mix-drinking scenarios [17][17] Conclusion - The spirits industry is navigating through a challenging environment with cautious optimism as demand begins to recover. Key players are adjusting strategies to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences while keeping an eye on regulatory impacts and upcoming seasonal opportunities [1][1][1]
: 中国烈酒追踪:年度股东大会前后的关键趋势检查;预计端午节消费趋势疲软,预付款滞后::
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-27 07:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the spirits industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The spirits industry is currently experiencing a transition period, with companies focusing on stability, channel profits, and product quality rather than aggressive growth targets [3] - There is a noted weak trend in consumption around the Dragon Boat Festival, with only Moutai showing a slight increase in prepayment compared to the previous year [1][6] - Companies are increasingly targeting younger consumers and expanding their brand rejuvenation efforts to capture this demographic [3] Summary by Company Moutai - Moutai has introduced new promotional policies for residential and wedding banquets to stimulate demand, including cash rebates and complimentary honeymoon trips for larger events [13] - The wholesale price of original case Feitian Moutai decreased from Rmb2,165 to Rmb2,125, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's price fell from Rmb2,080 to Rmb2,060 [2][22] Wuliangye - Wuliangye's wholesale price remained stable at Rmb950, with prepayment rates in the first quarter of 2025 reported at 40%-50% [6][22] Guojiao 1573 - Guojiao 1573's wholesale price decreased from Rmb860 to Rmb855, with prepayment rates around 40%-45% [6][22] Yanghe - Yanghe reported a prepayment rate of approximately 45% and is focusing on expanding its sales network [6][8] Gujing - Gujing aims for nationwide expansion and a focus on sub-premium strategies, with a sales network covering over 70% of regions nationwide [7][8] Yingjia - Yingjia targets total sales of Rmb7.6 billion for 2025, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase, and plans to improve dividend payout ratios [11][13] Market Trends - The retail sales of liquor and tobacco in China grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the market [13] - Spirits companies are focusing on improving retail sell-through, inventory destocking, and channel expansion amid industry-wide growth deceleration [13]
Moutai vs. Wuliangye_ We Expect Greater Divergence
2025-05-06 02:29
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Consumer Staples - **Companies Discussed**: Kweichow Moutai (Moutai) and Wuliangye Yibin (WLY) Key Points on Kweichow Moutai (Moutai) 1. **Channel Adjustments**: Moutai's recent strategy to focus on large distributors has stabilized the price of Feitian, positively impacting Moutai's share price [1][2] 2. **Management Goals**: Moutai's management aims to stabilize Feitian prices by 2025, with recent visits to 15 provinces to engage with distributors [2] 3. **Earnings Forecasts**: Moutai's earnings forecasts for 2025/26 have been trimmed by 5% and 9% respectively, but are still 3-5% higher than consensus estimates [4] 4. **Cost Management**: The company is expected to maintain superior cost and operational expense management as distributors regain control over direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales [4] 5. **Price Stability Confidence**: There is increased confidence that Moutai will stabilize or potentially raise Feitian prices moving forward [4] Key Points on Wuliangye Yibin (WLY) 1. **E-commerce Impact**: WLY is facing significant disruptions from e-commerce, with smaller distributors reselling inventory online due to dissatisfaction with price hikes and low rebates [3] 2. **Free Cash Flow (FCF) Concerns**: WLY's estimated FCF for 2024 is projected at RMB30 billion, a 20% decrease year-over-year, raising concerns about its recovery capabilities [5] 3. **Distributor Health**: There are strong concerns regarding WLY's distributor margins and overall health, which may necessitate supply cuts or special rebates to stabilize pricing [5] 4. **Brand Equity Risks**: WLY's brand equity is at risk due to unauthorized reselling activities, which could further complicate pricing strategies [5] 5. **Earnings Forecasts**: WLY's earnings forecasts have been cut, with a new price target set at RMB100, which is 6-12% lower than consensus estimates [5] Additional Insights - **Market Divergence**: The report anticipates a widening performance gap between Moutai and WLY, with Moutai expected to outperform WLY in the near future [1] - **Management Engagement**: Moutai's proactive engagement with distributors is seen as a positive step towards stabilizing market sentiment and pricing [2] - **Model Updates**: The report includes updated models reflecting the latest results for both companies, indicating a cautious outlook for WLY compared to Moutai [4][5]