Core Insights - Freight volumes decreased significantly in January, with Cass Information Systems reporting a 7.1% year-over-year decline in multimodal shipments index, marking the lowest level since 2009 [1] - Despite lower volumes, freight rates continued to rise, with the TL linehaul index increasing by 1.7% from December and 3.2% year-over-year, indicating a tightening truckload market [8][10] Volume and Expenditure Trends - Shipments were down 2% from December on a seasonally adjusted basis, influenced by severe winter weather and retailers reducing inventory levels [2] - The expenditures index, which includes total freight spend, rose by 0.6% year-over-year and 0.4% seasonally adjusted from December, although it experienced a sequential decline of 3.6% without adjustment [3] Rate Dynamics - The increase in freight rates is estimated at 8% year-over-year in January, driven by the changes in volumes and expenditures [4] - The TL linehaul index has shown consistent growth, with 13 consecutive months of year-over-year increases following a period of declines [8] Market Conditions - Poor weather conditions have been identified as a key factor influencing freight rates, with expectations that improved weather could lead to a trend reversion [9] - The market is experiencing a shift, with more shippers initiating one-year bids, suggesting a potential recovery in the trucking industry [10]

Core Insights - The freight market saw a rebound in September, primarily due to truckload volumes, although the future outlook remains uncertain [1][2] Freight Market Performance - Cass' multimodal shipments index rose by 2.5% sequentially in September, with a 1.5% increase when seasonally adjusted, reversing the decline seen in August [2] - Year-over-year, the volumes dataset decreased by 5.4%, marking the smallest decline in three months, supported by delayed tariff implementations [2][4] - The truckload (TL) market gained market share from the less-than-truckload (LTL) market for the second consecutive month [2][3] Rate and Expenditure Trends - The TL linehaul index increased by 1.7% sequentially in September and was up 2.6% year-over-year, representing the largest annual increase in three years [9] - Cass' freight expenditures index, which includes total freight spending, rose by 5.1% sequentially (2.5% seasonally adjusted) and was up 2.2% year-over-year, marking the fifth increase in the past six months [5] Capacity and Demand Dynamics - Shippers are consolidating smaller loads into full truckloads to benefit from lower rates, which has contributed to the shift in trucking dynamics [3] - The report suggests that the positive trend in TL volumes may be temporary due to potential air pockets in demand caused by pre-tariff shipping [4] - Inbound container flows from China are expected to be subdued in the latter half of the year, with a forecasted 6% year-over-year decline in October [4] Market Indicators - The Outbound Tender Reject Index indicates that current tender rejections are outperforming prior-year levels but do not signal a recovery [7] - The National Truckload Index shows that spot rates are modestly ahead of year-ago levels, reflecting a slight improvement in the market [8] Future Considerations - The immigration crackdown and the halt in issuing non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses could significantly tighten capacity in the next two years [9]