Core Viewpoint - Oil markets are experiencing a bullish trend, with Brent crude nearing $109 per barrel, primarily due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has lasted for three weeks, tightening supply despite various policy measures aimed at easing market conditions [1][4]. Price Movements - Brent crude is priced at $109.93, reflecting an increase of $1.28 or 1.18% [2] - WTI is at $96.82, up by $1.27 or 1.33% [2] - Murban crude has seen a significant rise to $139.26, increasing by $15.19 or 12.24% [2] - Natural gas prices have decreased to $3.10, down by $0.066 or 2.08% [2] U.S. Oil Production - U.S. oil production has shown a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.010 million barrels per day from the previous week, now at 13.668 million barrels per day [3]. Geopolitical Developments - The Trump administration is actively trying to alleviate market concerns by waiving the Jones Act and easing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, although the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant factor in the market's bullishness [4]. - Iran has retaliated against Israel's attacks on its gas facilities by targeting key energy infrastructure in Gulf countries, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which has raised regional tensions [6][7]. Policy Responses - The White House has denied plans to impose an export ban on oil and gas, although a potential export tax is still under consideration to address rising gasoline prices, currently at $3.91 per gallon [5]. - A 60-day waiver of the Jones Act has been announced, allowing foreign-flagged tankers to transport refined products and fertilizers between U.S. ports, aimed at reducing shipping costs amid rising oil prices [8]. Infrastructure Impact - Damage from Iran's drone attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefaction plant is expected to take 3 to 5 years to repair, affecting 17% of Qatar's liquefaction capacity [9]. EU Energy Policy - The European Union's ban on Russian LNG has entered its first phase, prohibiting European buyers from engaging in spot deals, with further restrictions planned for the future [10].

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The ongoing Israel-US-Iran conflict has led to a $10 per barrel increase in oil prices, with LNG prices rising by $15 per MMBtu and refined products like diesel and jet fuel experiencing significant price hikes [6][12] - The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for crude oil and LNG transits on March 2-3, with numerous fully loaded ships waiting in the Persian Gulf [7][12] - ICE Brent crude has reached $84 per barrel, with potential to test $90 per barrel if pressures on Gulf producers escalate [12] Group 2: Rig Count and Production - As of February 27, 2026, the total U.S. rig count stands at 550, a decrease from 593 a year ago, with oil rigs at 407 and a net change of +1 from the previous week [3] - The Permian Basin remains the most active with 240 rigs, showing a slight increase of +1, while other basins like Haynesville and Eagle Ford maintain stable rig counts [4] Group 3: Corporate Movements - Shell is considering selling its minority stake in Australia's North West Shelf LNG project, potentially raising $24 billion, with interest from ADNOC and MidOcean Energy [9] - Equinor is looking to divest its Angolan assets, following its exits from Azerbaijan and Nigeria, focusing on quicker returns in Brazil and the U.S. deepwater [10]

Core Insights - The halt to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting the pricing of major oil grades, with S&P Global Energy ceasing to accept bids and offers for crude varieties that transit this critical chokepoint [1][2] - The ongoing crisis in the Middle East is exacerbating the situation, leading to potential dislocation in crude and fuel markets, as traders express concerns over the volatility of the pricing mechanism [2][4] - S&P Global Energy will also stop publishing bids and offers for Middle East refined oil products loading from inside Hormuz, indicating a significant shift in market operations [4] Pricing Mechanism - Platts, the S&P Global Inc. unit, sets the Dubai oil price, which serves as a benchmark for most Middle Eastern crudes, with prices determined daily based on bids, offers, and trades during a specific trading window [3] - The current situation has led to an admission that the Arab-Gulf market is "unhinged and rudderless," highlighting the unprecedented challenges faced by Platts in maintaining its pricing methodology [4] Impact on Supply - Loadings of Murban, Abu Dhabi's flagship grade, from Jebel Dhanna are affected, although loading from Fujairah, which is outside Hormuz, remains operational [5] - Asian refiners, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, may face disruptions in purchases from major markets like China, India, and Japan if pricing issues persist [5]

Core Insights - Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with new U.S. maritime guidance, are contributing to an increase in oil prices as traders reassess geopolitical risks [1][9] Oil Market Overview - Current oil prices are as follows: WTI at $64.36, Brent at $69.22, and Murban at $69.55, with slight increases of 0.00%, 0.26%, and 0.23% respectively [2] - Natural gas is priced at $3.166, reflecting an increase of 0.89% [2] Rig Count and Production - The total rig count stands at 551, with 412 oil rigs and 130 gas rigs, showing a net increase of 5 rigs from the previous week [3] Company-Specific Developments - Shell's proven reserves have decreased to 8.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which is less than 8 years of current production, raising concerns about its future production capabilities [4] - Shell is projected to face a production gap of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, despite its commitment to grow hydrocarbon output by 1% annually [5] - BP has suspended its buyback program after incurring a $4 billion impairment on renewable and biogas assets, resulting in a 6% drop in its share price [8] Mergers and Acquisitions - Transocean has agreed to acquire Valaris in an all-stock deal valued at approximately $5.8 billion, creating a combined entity worth $17 billion with a fleet of 73 rigs [7] Exploration and New Projects - ExxonMobil is in discussions with the Ivory Coast government to explore three new license blocks after Tullow Oil relinquished its acreage [8] - ENI has commenced its first liquefied natural gas cargo from the Nguya FLNG facility in the Republic of Congo, marking the start of the Phase Two expansion of the Congo LNG project [7]

Core Viewpoint - Oil markets are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties driven by U.S. President Trump's comments on Iran and mixed signals regarding India's stance on Russian crude imports [1][5][10] Oil and Natural Gas Prices - As of February 3, 2026, WTI is priced at $62.67 per barrel, Brent at $66.70, Murban at $67.57, and Natural Gas at $3.330 per MMBtu [2] U.S. Rig Count - The total U.S. rig count as of January 30, 2026, is 546, down from 582 a year ago, with a gas rig count of 411 and a net change of +2 from the previous week [3] Rigs per Basin - The Permian basin has 242 rigs, with a net decrease of 2, while the Haynesville and Cana Woodford basins saw increases of 1 and 5 rigs, respectively [4] Market Dynamics - January 2026 oil prices were consistent with the previous year's levels, with ICE Brent averaging $64.7 per barrel and closing at $70.7, despite predictions of oversupply [5] - Open interest in ICE Brent futures reached a record high of 2.65 million contracts on January 26, 2026, although it has since decreased by over 200,000 contracts [6] Company Movements - Equinor has agreed to sell its onshore business in Argentina's Vaca Muerta for $1.1 billion, while Shell's Nigerian subsidiary will suspend production at the Bonga field for maintenance [7] - Excelerate Energy is set to develop a 1.5 mtpa LNG import terminal in India, marking a significant step in the country's LNG infrastructure [8] Geopolitical Influences - Trump's comments regarding Iran and the U.S.-India trade deal are creating uncertainty in the oil markets, particularly concerning Russian oil exports [9] - OPEC+ has decided to maintain production quotas in March 2026, citing lower global oil demand in the first quarter [10]