Key Takeaways HOLX now earns 25% of revenues internationally, with room to expand compared to peers.Hologic's International Surgical sales rose 16.2% in Q2, led by strong MyoSure and NovaSure performance.HOLX sees a global drag from Korea strikes, China headwinds and lower HIV testing in Africa.International expansion continues to play a central role in Hologic’s (HOLX) growth strategy. Currently, it generates around 25% of its total revenues from outside the United States — a lower proportion compared to o ...

Core Insights - The demand for gynecology surgical instruments is increasing due to the rising prevalence of gynecological diseases and government investments in women's health, with a projected market growth rate of 8.26% CAGR from 2024 to 2032 [1] - Hologic's GYN Surgical business has shown a 7.6% CAGR over the past decade, driven by the MyoSure suite and the Fluent fluid management system [1][8] - The launch of the Fluent Pro system in late 2024 is expected to enhance MyoSure's performance and user experience, contributing positively to Hologic's Surgical performance [2] Market Position and Growth - Hologic's International Surgical segment remains the leading revenue driver, supported by investments in market development for minimally invasive GYN products [2] - Legacy NovaSure devices are gaining traction in Europe, despite declining volumes in the U.S., indicating significant expansion opportunities in international markets [3] - Inorganic investments, such as the acquisitions of Acessa Health and Gynesonics, have strengthened Hologic's product offerings and global market reach [4] Competitive Landscape - Hologic faces competition from major companies like Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic in the GYN Surgical space [5] - Johnson & Johnson's MedTech segment reported $8 billion in sales for Q1 2025, with a 4.1% year-over-year growth [6] - Medtronic's Medical Surgical Portfolio saw a 2% increase in Q4 2025, with expectations for improved growth as it expands its robotic platform [6] Financial Performance - Hologic's stock has declined by 8.7% year-to-date, slightly better than the industry's 9.1% decline [7] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.85, which is lower than the industry average of 28.39 [9] - Consensus estimates for Hologic's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings show a bearish trend, with current estimates remaining stable [10][11]

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) is currently attractively priced with a Value Score of B, trading at a forward five-year price-to-sales (P/S) of 3.39X, which is lower than its median of 4.33X and the industry average of 4.14X [1][4] - The company has faced a tough macroeconomic environment, resulting in a 10.8% year-to-date decline in shares, underperforming the industry and S&P 500 [5] - Despite returning to top-line growth in Q3 of fiscal 2024, fiscal 2025 has shown mixed performance with a 0.9% revenue increase in Q1 and a 1.2% decline in Q2 [7][10] Valuation Comparison - Hologic's P/S ratio of 3.39X is favorable compared to peers QIAGEN (3.30X) and Abbott (2.50X), but it trades at a premium to the broader Medical sector's historical average of 2.33X [4] - The company has reaffirmed its revenue guidance but lowered its adjusted EPS forecast to $4.15-$4.25 from $4.25-$4.35, indicating potential challenges ahead [12] Performance Challenges - Hologic's performance has been impacted by a stronger U.S. dollar, a significant drop in Breast Health revenues, and the loss of a $50 million annual revenue stream from HIV testing in Africa [8][10] - Analysts have become increasingly cautious, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 EPS decreasing by 2.1% to $4.19 over the past 90 days [13] Growth Drivers - The Surgical business has shown a 7.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last decade, driven by products like MyoSure and the acquisition of Gynesonics [15] - Hologic's strong financial health is highlighted by $169.5 million in operating cash generated in Q2 of fiscal 2025 and a cash position of $1.43 billion [16] Overall Outlook - While Hologic's Surgical division shows ongoing momentum and financial stability, macroeconomic headwinds and declining sales in key areas have negatively impacted performance [17] - The negative earnings estimate trend suggests continued near-term challenges, leading to a less compelling investment case at this time [18]

Core Insights - Hologic (HOLX) has seen a significant share price increase of 13.3% over the past month, outperforming both the industry and broader Medical sector gains of 2.4% and 3.4% respectively, with current prices 23.9% above the 52-week low of $51.90, partly due to the rejection of a private takeover bid from TPG and Blackstone valued at up to $16.7 billion [1][6][9] Performance Comparison - Hologic has outperformed key competitors Exact Sciences (EXAS) and Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) during the same timeframe [2] Financial Performance - Following the release of fiscal 2025 second-quarter earnings, Hologic met adjusted EPS expectations but revised its annual outlook due to tariff impacts from China and Costa Rica, funding cuts affecting the Africa business, and a soft capital equipment market [4] Acquisition Interest - The rejected buyout offer from TPG and Blackstone would have valued Hologic's shares between $70 and $72, indicating strong confidence in the company's growth potential [6][7] Clinical Advancements - New data presented at the 2025 American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting highlighted the significant clinical impact of the Breast Cancer Index (BCI) test, which has been a key growth driver in Hologic's molecular diagnostics business [10][11] Valuation Metrics - Hologic's stock is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.40X, below its five-year median of 4.33X and the industry average of 4.16X, indicating an attractive valuation [12][14] Long-Term Growth Prospects - The molecular diagnostics segment is expected to remain a principal revenue driver, with ongoing efforts to expand in the U.S. vaginitis market and a strong pipeline of innovations such as the Envision Mammography Platform [15][16] Analyst Price Target - The average price target for Hologic shares is $68.13, suggesting a potential upside of 8.02% from the recent closing price [17]

Champions of Women's Health Q2'25 Corporate Presentation Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking information that involves risks and uncertainties, including statements about the Company's plans, objectives, expectations and intentions. Such statements include, without limitation: financial or other information based upon or otherwise incorporating judgments or estimates relating to future performance, events or expectations; the Company's strategies, positioning, resources, capabil ...