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交银国际:科技股走势分化 看好2026年AI基础设施相关的投资前景
智通财经网· 2025-12-12 09:45
Group 1 - The discussion around the AI bubble coincides with uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a pullback in AI-related chip design and foundry companies. However, the potential risks of overbuilding AI infrastructure globally are considered manageable, with a positive outlook for investments in AI infrastructure by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Recent trends show a divergence in technology stock performance across different markets, with A-shares performing notably well. From November 11 to December 10, the MSCI Information Technology Index rose by 0.5%, slightly outperforming the MSCI Global Index, which increased by 0.3%. The A-share Wind Information Technology Index surged by 2.8%, making it the only sector to achieve positive returns during this period, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.3% [2] Group 3 - The average spot price of DDR5 (16Gb) memory has surged from $7.676 at the end of September to $27.167 by the end of November. Additionally, contract average prices for DDR4 (8Gb) and NAND (128Gb MLC) increased by 11% and 15% month-over-month in October. The current memory price upcycle has exceeded expectations in both magnitude and duration, with a continued supply-demand imbalance expected until the end of 2026 [3] Group 4 - In October, China's semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports reached $3.86 billion, marking a 26% year-over-year increase and achieving significant growth for five consecutive months. The semiconductor equipment market in mainland China is projected to reach $52 billion by 2025, with a 5% year-over-year growth forecast. The outlook for investment in mainland China's semiconductor equipment remains positive, with a further 4.2% growth expected in 2026 [4] Group 5 - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$343.6 billion for November, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase but a 6% decrease month-over-month. The company is expected to face continued demand for advanced processes and packaging capabilities, with 2nm process technology anticipated to launch in Q4 2025 and 1.6nm products expected in the second half of 2026. TSMC's pricing power relative to downstream customers is expected to improve compared to previous cycles [5]