Summary of BYD Co. (002594.SZ/1211.HK) 2Q25 Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: BYD Co. (002594.SZ/1211.HK) - **Industry**: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) Key Financial Results - **Revenue**: Rmb200.9 billion, missing expectations by 6% [1] - **Gross Margin**: 16.3%, down 1.8 percentage points from expectations [1] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Rmb23 billion, up 171% quarter-over-quarter and 489% year-over-year [3] - **Net Income**: Rmb6.36 billion, down 38.2% year-over-year [9] Core Insights - **Revenue Decline**: The revenue miss was attributed to lower-than-expected sales in mobile handset components and assembly services, with significant internal eliminations between BYD and BYDE [1][7] - **Unit Profit Analysis**: Domestic unit profit fell to Rmb523 in 2Q25 from Rmb5.8k in 1Q25, primarily due to increased costs from autopilot models and promotional expenses [2][10] - **Cost Factors**: Higher costs included Rmb4.4k for BOM of autopilot models, Rmb2.9k for a one-month promotion, and Rmb666 in dealer incentives [2][10] Market Position and Outlook - **Market Share**: BYD's NEV retail market share declined to 29% in the first seven months of 2025 from 34% in 2024, facing competition from over 50 new model launches by competitors [12] - **Volume Estimates**: Revised 2025-2027 volume estimates lowered to 5.0-6.0 million units from 5.5-6.8 million due to declining domestic market share [4][12] - **Future Projections**: Expected recovery in unit profit to Rmb4.4k in 3Q25 and Rmb5.0k in 4Q25 as prices stabilize under government guidance [2][10] Investment Thesis - **Growth Potential**: BYD is positioned to capture mass-market demand and expand in overseas markets, with expectations of total vehicle sales volume growing from 4.3 million in 2024 to 8.9 million by 2030 [18][20] - **Price Target**: 12-month DCF-based price targets adjusted to Rmb133 for A shares and HK$130 for H shares, implying upside potential of 21% and 20% respectively [4][21] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Include intensifying competition in the electric vehicle market, slower-than-expected overseas expansion, and lower-than-expected external battery sales [20][21] Additional Insights - **Cash Flow Improvement**: Shortening payment periods to suppliers, with payable days reduced to 128 in 2Q25 from 169 in 1Q25 [3] - **Operating Expenses**: Total operating expenses decreased by 3.5% quarter-over-quarter, indicating cost management efforts [9] This summary encapsulates the key financial results, market position, and future outlook for BYD Co. based on the 2Q25 earnings review.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Auto Manufacturers Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Auto Manufacturers** industry, specifically insights from Mr. Cui Dongshu of the **China Passenger Car Association (CPCA)** regarding sales forecasts, stimulus outlook, and market trends in the automotive sector. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **August Sales Forecast**: - Mr. Cui forecasts a **6% month-over-month (MoM)** increase in domestic retail for passenger vehicles (PV) in August, translating to a **2% year-over-year (YoY)** growth. - Wholesales are expected to rise by **5% MoM** and **9% YoY**, while exports are projected to grow by **3.8% MoM** and **20% YoY**, reaching **500,000 units** [1][2]. 2. **Auto Stimulus Outlook**: - The Chinese government is expected to be conservative with auto industry stimulus in the second half of 2025, potentially reallocating some funds to 2026 due to strong GDP growth in the first half of 2025 and high sales driven by previous stimulus policies. - The available funding for the consumption replacement scheme is estimated at **Rmb138 billion** in 2H25, down from **Rmb162 billion** in 1H25 [2][10]. 3. **2025 Forecast**: - Mr. Cui anticipates a **6% YoY growth** in PV retail for 2025, with the second half likely to be flat YoY. - NEV (New Energy Vehicle) wholesales are expected to increase by **27% YoY**, with a **20% YoY growth** in 2H25 [3]. 4. **July Sales Review**: - PV production volume decreased by **7% MoM** but increased by **12% YoY**. - Wholesales fell by **11% MoM** but rose **13% YoY**, while retail sales dropped **12% MoM** but grew **6% YoY**. - The decline in retail sales is attributed to consumer hesitation [4]. 5. **NEV Performance**: - NEV wholesales grew by **24% YoY**, with retail up **12% YoY**. - Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) showed strong performance with a **45% YoY** increase, while Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) and Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREV) were weaker, with growth of **3%** and a decline of **6% YoY**, respectively [4]. 6. **Market Trends**: - The average pricing of passenger vehicles has been declining, with July 2025 average pricing at **Rmb169,000**, down from **Rmb183,000** in 2023 and **Rmb177,000** in 2024. - The high-end segment is experiencing weaker sales, particularly among German luxury brands [8][9]. 7. **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: - Mr. Cui noted that the current inventory of lithium carbonate is estimated at **140,000 tons**, with a reasonable future price around **Rmb60,000 per ton** due to low production costs and tepid global NEV demand [7]. 8. **BYD Sales Forecast**: - BYD's wholesales for 2025 are projected to be around **4.8 million units**, with a potential increase in dealer discounts if the target of **5.5 million units** is not adjusted [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Discount Levels**: - NEV discount levels remained stable at **10.2%** in July, while luxury ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) discounts increased to **27.2%** from **25.7%** in May [4][11]. - **New Model Highlights**: - Several new models were highlighted, including the **Leapmotor B01** and **BYD Seal 06 Touring**, which are competitively priced to target existing market players [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China auto manufacturing industry.