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花旗:全球外汇策略
花旗· 2025-07-15 01:58
Investment Rating - The report initiates a long position on EURUSD targeting 1.20 with a stop at 1.1540 [3][4] Core Views - The report expresses optimism regarding a potential EU-US trade announcement, which could support the EURUSD position [6] - A bearish view on GBP is reiterated, with expectations for EURGBP to rally towards a target of 0.8750 [16][19] Summary by Sections Long EURUSD Position - The report goes long on EURUSD at 1.1680, expecting a move towards 1.20 in Q3 due to anticipated weakening US data [3][5] - Supports are noted around 1.1630-1.1670, indicating a favorable risk/reward scenario for entering longs [4][8] Long NOKSEK Position - The report converts a long EURSEK position into a long NOKSEK position, targeting at least 0.97 and potentially parity [9][11] - The rationale includes diversification of trades and potential benefits from a hawkish repricing in Norges expectations [12][13] Long EURGBP Position - The report maintains a long position on EURGBP, citing recent GDP data that reinforces a bearish outlook on GBP [16][18] - Upcoming UK inflation and labor data are expected to act as catalysts for further GBP weakness [17][19]