艺婕认为不管在交易还是分析方面，我认为女性和男性在性格上有着天然的区别，大多数女性更加细 致，在行情分析上，会有更加敏锐的视角和更严谨且稳健的指导建议。在分析领域，我们更多面对的是 普通投资者，一个普通投资者在交易中会面临各种技术和心理上的问题，女性分析师在疏导投资者心理 上或面对一些简单而重复的技术问题，能够给予更多耐心或鼓励。毕竟大道至简！从业这些年，这是所 有投资者的死穴，只要犯了这三个中的其中两个就基本上被市场扫出局了。从业这些年以来的一些心 得，无论是你我的同行，还是我的学生，无论这是说你的故事，还是讲我的经历，这些都不重要，重要 的是做到了我讲到的内容你能有所收获，有所感触，对你有所帮助。让我们一起共勉…… | XAUUS 2:20 2 | | | | | | XAUUS 2:20 A | | | | ·II @ 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | XAUUSD, buy f | | | | | 12.16 17:19:18 | XAUUSD, buy | | | | 25.12.1 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 经济数据方面，欧元区10月份失业率6.4%，连续6个月保持不变。11月核心通胀率2.4%，连续三个月保 持不变。中央银行调整货币政策的依据是就业市场和通胀的变化的情况，在欧元区失业率和通胀率均保 持绝对稳定的状态下，我们认为，欧央行没有必要调整货币政策。对比来看，英国的失业率在2025年一 直在稳步升高，意味着英国的宏观经济存在衰退迹象，英央行将不得不降低利率以提振经济。 ▲ATFX图 行情方面，日线级别，EURUSD处于中期横盘震荡状态，震荡开始的时间是6月19日。EURUSD的震荡 状态能够持续半年时间，足见当前震荡区间的上下限得到了广泛资金的认可。在没有新的超预期信息扰 动下，EURUSD不会轻易突破震荡区间。图中1.1917是中期高点，1.1467是中期低点，1.1467低点形成 后开的上涨波段，是在寻找新的中期高点。考虑到当前中期趋势为震荡，所以前一个中期高点1.1917有 可能成为本轮上涨走势的强阻力位。 12月19日，ATFX汇评：今日有英国央行和欧央行两场重量级利率决议，前者预期降息25基点，但仍存 在按兵不动的可能；后者预期将按兵不动，维持三大关键政策利率不变，但 ...

靠运气是走不远的，只有实力才能在市场中存活下去。有投资者亏损了太多，对很多有实力的分析师也 不认可，因为区分不出来谁才有真正的技术。那么你可以多观察一个老师的准确率，加入实盘初期了， 就用最小的仓位去交易，经过长期的磨合观察，看老师的准确率究竟如何。我相信，所有的实力是需要 考察的，这样既是对自己负责，也能真正找到可以带自己盈利的老师！ | 22:39 A | | | .11 @ 919 | 17:27 A | | .1 ? 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日 | 風 | 月份 | 血定义 | | 设置 | | | 4275.08 -> 4284.20 | | | 456.00 | | | | | XAUUSD, buy 1.00 | | | 2025.10.17 16:43:26 | | | | | 4284.10 -> 4265.37 | | | -1 873.00 | | AT Global Markets LLC | | | XAUUSD, buy 0.50 | | | 2025.10.17 16:43:31 | | ATFXGM ...

杜绝弄虚作假，以实事求是为准。大家好，我是冷艺婕。（添加冷老师即刻给出目前跟单思路） 目前实盘可提供跟单账户查验收益!自10月10号截止现在已经完成多次增倍! | XAUUS 21:43 | | | .. 11 2 90 1 200 | XAUUSB1:4 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 76.40 | | | | | | GBPUSD, sell / | | | 20 16:46:53 | GBPUSD, sell * | | | 25.11.20 16:46:53 | | 1 1.31181 -> 3 | | | 自定义 407.10 | 1.31181 -> | | M | 自定义 407.10 | | AUDUSD, sell 1.15 | | | 2025.11.20 16:47:39 | AUDUSD, sell 1.15 | | | 2025.11.20 16:47:39 | | 0.64984 -> 0.64486 | | | 572.70 | 0.64984 -> 0.64486 | | | ...

▲ATFX图 历史数据看，过去五个月，ADP数据有三个月都处于负值状态，就业市场形势极为严峻。美联储官员普遍认为，造成美国就业市场疲软的主要因素是移民问 题和AI人工智能对基础岗位的替代。移民政策问题由特朗普发起，预计将贯穿其四年任期，短期内无法实质性改变。人工智能AI的发展，受到各国政策层 面的重视和扶持，美国也不例外。即便面临短期的劳动力替代问题，也不大可能停止高速发展的态势。 导致美国就业市场恶化的两大核心因素，都无法在短时间内出现变化，衡量美国就业市场波动的数据，大概率将持续恶化。本次市场预期美国11月ADP就业 人数仅1万人，就是基于上述悲观预期得出的结论。如果ADP公布结果与市场预期一致，意味着美国劳动力市场和宏观经济仍在衰退，美元指数将遭受显著 冲击，黄金白银受益。 美联储将于本月10日公布利率决议结果，而10~11月的非农就业报告在本月16日公布。这就意味着，自动数据处理公司的ADP数据是美联储年内最后一次利 率决议之前，唯一可以参考的相对可靠的劳动力市场数据。ADP数据结果的好坏，将直接决定12月份美联储是否再次降息的决定。由于目前市场预期11月份 ADP数据表现不佳，所以对10日的美联储降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September exceeded expectations, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly higher than the market forecast of 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000. However, the market's reaction to this data was relatively muted, as indicated by the minor fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index and precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The September non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 jobs, while higher than previous values and expectations, remains low compared to earlier months, such as May when the increase was 323,000 jobs, approximately three times the September figure [3]. - The employment market showed improvement in September compared to the previous months of May to August, but it still appears weak when compared to earlier periods [3]. - The positive non-farm data has led to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, dropping to 40% from over 90% a month prior, according to CME Group's FedWatch data [3]. Group 2: Future Employment Reports - The upcoming non-farm payroll reports for October and November are uncertain due to the government shutdown, which affected data collection for October and may impact the November report as well [3]. - The potential delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll report is anticipated, as the first Friday of December may not see timely publication due to data collection issues [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the strong non-farm employment report, the market's response was subdued, with the U.S. dollar index showing a volatility of only 0.09% and gold and silver fluctuating by 0.15% and 0.98%, respectively [1]. - The dollar index had already shown a bullish trend prior to the data release, suggesting that some investors may have positioned themselves in advance [1].

Group 1 - The final Q2 GDP showed one of the largest upward revisions in recent years, indicating the strongest growth in nearly two years, primarily driven by consumer spending [1][3] - The contraction in the first quarter was attributed to higher imports as companies stockpiled goods ahead of new tariffs, but the positive Q2 results were not solely due to a decline in imports [2][3] - Personal consumption expenditure rose by 2.5% in Q2, significantly higher than the second estimate of 1.6%, suggesting that concerns about a downturn in the USA may be premature [3] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims on 25 September were significantly lower than consensus, indicating a potentially stronger job market than previously perceived [4] - The likelihood of a Fed rate cut on 29 October remains high at around 85%, but the probability of cuts at future meetings has decreased by over 20% compared to the previous week [5] - The euro-dollar has declined recently as sentiment on the dollar improved, supported by the upward revision to GDP and lower initial jobless claims [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the foreign exchange (FX), interest rates, and commodities markets, with a focus on the implications of stagflationary risks and monetary policy adjustments in various regions. Core Points and Arguments Foreign Exchange (FX) Market - The EUR-USD forecast has been revised upwards, with expectations of further USD weakness. The end-2025 forecast is now set at 1.20 (up from 1.17) and 1.25 for end-2026 (up from 1.20) [3][22][39]. - The dollar is expected to depreciate further due to rising stagflationary risks and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to lower relative real interest rates [20][21][22]. Interest Rates - US interest rates have been revised lower, with the end-2025 forecast for the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.5% and the 10-year yield at 4.25% [4][16][19]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to reassess its risk balance, potentially leading to lower rates in response to cooling employment data and inflation concerns [14][17]. - The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut rates further, with a forecast of 3.5% by the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [58][64]. Commodities - There have been revisions to core energy commodity price forecasts, including Brent and WTI oil, while forecasts for industrial and precious metals remain unchanged [8]. Regional Insights - **Emerging Markets (EM) Asia**: The forecast for the Chinese Yuan (CNY) remains stable at 7.10, with a mildly bullish outlook for the Indian Rupee (INR) [5]. - **Latin America (LatAm)**: The GDP growth forecast for the region has been upgraded due to stronger expected growth in Mexico, despite external volatility [7]. - **EEMEA**: A structurally bullish outlook is maintained for EEMEA FX, driven by US stagflationary risks and concerns over Federal Reserve independence [6]. Important but Overlooked Content - The potential erosion of US data credibility poses additional risks for the dollar, complicating the market's outlook [20][23]. - The ECB's recent hawkish tilt may not be sustainable, as the economic implications of the US-EU trade deal could negatively impact the euro area [27][29]. - The Japanese government is expected to adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which could influence the JGB market and yield forecasts [43][45]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights significant shifts in FX and interest rate forecasts due to evolving economic conditions, particularly in the context of stagflationary risks and monetary policy adjustments across major economies. The outlook for commodities remains stable, with specific regional insights indicating varied growth trajectories.

Group 1: Economic and Political Developments - President Trump vowed to remove homeless individuals from Washington D.C. and imprison criminals, despite the mayor's assertion that crime rates have not significantly increased [1] - The White House is preparing to deploy hundreds of National Guard troops to Washington, although the final decision on troop numbers and specific roles is still pending [1] - The U.S. trade representative confirmed that a 15% tariff is not being imposed, leading to a significant drop in European exports to the U.S., particularly a 36% decline in automobile exports [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Commodity Prices - Gold prices reached a record high due to tariff uncertainties, with futures rising over 2% before the White House clarified that no tariffs on gold would be imposed [2] - Gold closed at $3,397.79 per ounce, with a trading range between $3,379.26 and $3,408.18 per ounce, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The market is closely monitoring the implementation of tariff policies, changes in Federal Reserve personnel, and geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily chart for gold shows an expanding BOLL channel and a KD death cross, while the four-hour chart indicates an upward BOLL channel and a KD golden cross [3] - The one-hour chart suggests a narrowing BOLL channel with a KD golden cross, indicating potential short-term upward movement [3] - The key support level for gold is identified at $3,350 per ounce, which is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum [3] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For gold, buy recommendations include entering at $3,365.00 with a stop loss of $7 and a take profit target of $3,400/$3,410 [5] - Another buy strategy suggests entering at $3,350.00 with the same stop loss and a take profit target of $3,395/$3,400 [5] - The strategies emphasize the importance of adjusting stop losses to mitigate risks while trading [20]

Investment Rating - The report initiates a long position on EURUSD targeting 1.20 with a stop at 1.1540 [3][4] Core Views - The report expresses optimism regarding a potential EU-US trade announcement, which could support the EURUSD position [6] - A bearish view on GBP is reiterated, with expectations for EURGBP to rally towards a target of 0.8750 [16][19] Summary by Sections Long EURUSD Position - The report goes long on EURUSD at 1.1680, expecting a move towards 1.20 in Q3 due to anticipated weakening US data [3][5] - Supports are noted around 1.1630-1.1670, indicating a favorable risk/reward scenario for entering longs [4][8] Long NOKSEK Position - The report converts a long EURSEK position into a long NOKSEK position, targeting at least 0.97 and potentially parity [9][11] - The rationale includes diversification of trades and potential benefits from a hawkish repricing in Norges expectations [12][13] Long EURGBP Position - The report maintains a long position on EURGBP, citing recent GDP data that reinforces a bearish outlook on GBP [16][18] - Upcoming UK inflation and labor data are expected to act as catalysts for further GBP weakness [17][19]