Natural Uranium

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CGN MINING(01164.HK):SALES FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT IMPLEMENTED; BENEFITING FROM GROWTH TREND OF URANIUM PRICES
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-11 02:48
Core Viewpoint - CGN Mining has signed a new sales framework agreement with CGN Uranium Resources Co., Ltd. for the period from January 2026 to December 2028, which is expected to enhance pricing flexibility and boost sales prices due to a higher forecasted natural uranium price [1][2]. Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing formula for natural uranium is set at 30% of the forecasted price of US$94.22 per pound, with an annual escalation factor of 1.041, and 70% based on the latest spot price at the time of delivery [1]. - The previous pricing mechanism for 2023-2025 was 40% of the forecasted price of US$61.78 per pound and 60% based on the latest spot price [1]. Market Expectations - The forecasted natural uranium price of US$94.22 per pound is significantly higher than the average spot price of US$71 per pound and the long-term contract price of US$80 per pound, indicating a bullish outlook for uranium prices [1][2]. - The increase in the proportion of the latest spot price indicator from 60% to 70% in the new agreement allows CGN Mining to benefit from rising spot market trends [3]. Production Guidance - CGN Mining has provided production guidance for its subsidiaries, estimating contracted sales volumes of 1,438 tU in 2026, 1,617 tU in 2027, and 1,598 tU in 2028 [4]. Financial Projections - Following the new sales framework agreement and anticipated uranium price increases, CGN Mining has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 14% and 31%, respectively, to HK$611 million and HK$1.00 billion [5]. - The stock is currently trading at 26.5x 2025 estimated P/E and 16.3x 2026 estimated P/E, with a target price of HK$2.51, suggesting an 18% upside [5].