报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 供需构筑底线，政策强化弹性——稀土行业2025年中期策略报告 报告日期：2025.07.03 报告作者： 于嘉懿 （ 分析师） ，登记编号： S 0880522080001 兰洋 （研究助理） ，登记编号：S 0880123070158 价格复盘： 2020 年以来新能源汽车需求为稀土下游核心拉动力，该终端的增速基本对应着稀土价格的高 低点。 2021 年 3-5 月稀土价格快速下跌，主要由于 21 年第一批配额增速超预期，但进入 H2 ，市场 发现供给增速可以被需求消化，且第二批配额给定后供给被限定，价格重回上涨。 2022-2024 年稀土价 格持续下跌：表面看是国内配额供给大幅增长的原因，本质上在于新能源渗透诉求 & 全球市占率管理。 供给方面，国内整合持续推进，供给刚性时代开启。 国内稀土资源整合持续推进，目前已经形成两大集 团，供给格局明显优化。海外整体稀土资源禀赋不差，但产业链不完备，在产的大型稀土矿山仅 MP 和 Lynas ，其余矿山进展持续推后。从目前国内最重要的稀土矿进口来源地缅甸来看， 2025 年 4-5 月缅 甸 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **rare earth industry in China**, particularly the supply and demand dynamics, export regulations, and market outlook for 2025 [1][3][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Regulations**: China has implemented strict controls on the export of heavy rare earth elements since April 2025, leading to a significant reduction in export volumes. Although some companies received export licenses in May, the overall export volume is expected to remain limited, potentially stabilizing at 2,000 to 3,000 tons per month in the coming six months [1][3][6]. - **Demand Sources**: The primary demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials comes from the **electric vehicle (EV)** sector, followed by wind power and white goods. The demand from consumer electronics has not shown significant growth, while orders for white goods have increased due to national consumption policies and trade-in programs [1][4][5][16]. - **Market Competition**: Rare earth processing companies are facing overcapacity issues, with the operating rate of neodymium-iron-boron magnet manufacturers at only 50%. Large enterprises are expanding production, intensifying competition and making it difficult for smaller firms to survive [6][11]. - **Wind Power Impact**: Despite the growth in wind power installation capacity, the demand for rare earth materials has not increased significantly due to the adoption of direct drive and semi-direct drive technologies, which require less rare earth [9][16]. - **Mining and Processing Indicators**: The release of rare earth mining indicators for 2025 has been delayed, with expectations that they will remain at levels similar to 2024. The smelting and separation indicators will include stricter management of imported ores [10][11]. - **Import Dynamics**: Approximately 100,000 tons of imported ore oxides are expected in 2025, primarily from the U.S., Mongolia, and Southeast Asia. The U.S. has reduced exports due to tariff issues, while Laos has increased its share of exports [12][13]. Additional Important Content - **Recycling and Supply**: The recycling of rare earth materials is projected to increase, with a recovery rate expected to reach 27% in 2025. This is significant as about one-third of the rare earth supply comes from recycled materials [15]. - **Price Trends**: The market for rare earth materials is expected to experience a strong oscillation in 2025, with a projected supply-demand gap of about 3,000 tons, equivalent to ten days of domestic production. The overall price trend is anticipated to be better than in 2024 due to substantial government support [16][17]. - **Emerging Applications**: New fields such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy are beginning to utilize rare earth permanent magnet materials, although they require more time and policy support for development [2][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the rare earth industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the regulatory environment, demand dynamics, competitive landscape, and future outlook.

我问你个问题：如果对手天天拿你家门口的砖头砌炮楼，你会不会把砖头都封起来？ 稀土是什么？是武器系统、导弹制导、雷达通讯、航天器、F-35战机、芯片制造等一大堆尖板眼的基础原材料。美国国防部2023年就发过报告，说全球超过 80%的稀土加工能力集中在中国（数据来源：美国地质调查局USGS 2023年报告），哪怕你在澳大利亚、美国本土开矿，最后还是得运到中国来提纯。你说 他们急不急？ 而且，美国不是没想办法绕过。他们在2022年投了几个稀土项目，比如MP Materials那个加州山口矿，还搞了个和澳大利亚Lynas合作的稀土分离厂。但到真 正能投产的没几个。有也就是试运行，连自己军工那点用量都不够填。 讲真，美国人根本不是在谈合作，而是在逼我们自废武功。我查了下，美方最近在世贸组织又提出申诉，说中国搞出口管制不透明，不公平。拜登还拉了日 本、欧洲一起施压，试图把稀土问题搞成一个多边规则问题。 但说句不客气的：你们搞芯片战封锁我们供应链，怎么好意思要求我们开放稀土？这就像有人先把你家饭桌掀了，再回头要求你把厨房敞开。 我最近反复在琢磨一件事。美国那边又开始嚷嚷稀土问题了，说什么希望中国放开稀土出口限制、搞市场化自 ...

MP Materials (MP) 2025 Conference May 16, 2025 09:30 AM ET Speaker0 Everybody, Speaker1 without any further delay, I would like to get started. This is the final panel of our conference this year. Thank you all for being here. This has been a great conference. Barcelona's treated us well. This panel is going to ask the question, are rare earths the ultimate strategic metal? Perhaps we have some answers with these two gentlemen here. So to to introduce them from left to right, we have Ryan Corbett, who's the ...

1)传感器是人形机器人感知世界的最主要的方式--光学六维力矩传感器具有精度高、敏感度高等优势,而 使用金属3D打印制造传感器可以实现传感器微小化，建议关注潜在获益公司铂力特、华曙高科;触觉传 感器是当前机器人发展的重要方向,其导电材料的选择关乎到电极的灵敏度和稳定性，建议关注:①传感 器相关企业:福莱新材、唯科科技等;②导电材料生产企业:道氏技术(碳纳米管)、黑猫股份(导电炭黑); 2)驱动系统是机器人运动的核心，建议持续关注仿生机器人中驱动系统涉及到的新材料和新技术。 ①SMA合金具有易于加工、技术成熟等优势，建议关注具有Ni-Ti记忆合金研发经验的企业:西部材料、 有研新材;②EAP(电活性聚合物)是制造人工肌肉核心材料，建议关注上游弹性体材料:道恩股份、南京 聚隆; 3)传动系统是机器人的骨骼和肌腱，在运动过程中承担传力传动的作用,而腱传动具有灵活性好，距离 长等优势,有望成为灵巧手的重要解决方案,建议关注高分子腱绳方案潜在受益企业:南山智尚、同益中; 金属腱绳提供商:大业股份。 能源新材料助力续航能力提升 智通财经APP获悉，中航证券发布研报称，仿生或成为人形机器人最终形态:机器人被设计成人形的明 面 ...