State Bank of India (SBI) is expected to see its net profit decline for the the September quarter even as healthy loan growth and one-off treasury gains from its stake sale in Yes Bank offset pressure on margins, according to analysts.The country's largest state-run lender is expected to post a standalone net profit of ₹17,523 crore in the quarter, down over 4% year-on-year, according to a Bloomberg analyst poll. The bank’s June-quarter bottom line stood at ₹19,160 crore. The public sector lender saw its op ...

Core Insights - The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.91 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.76, and reflecting a 25.7% increase from the prior-year quarter [1][10]. Financial Performance - The results were driven by increased fee revenues and net interest income (NII), alongside a provision benefit, while higher expenses and lower assets under management (AUM) posed challenges [2]. - Total revenues rose 9.3% year over year to $5.08 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.96 billion [4]. - NII reached $1.24 billion, up 17.9% year over year, attributed to reinvestment of maturing investment securities at higher yields [4]. - Net interest margin (NIM) expanded by 15 basis points to 1.31%, exceeding the estimate of 1.24% [5]. - Total fees and other revenues increased 6.8% year over year to $3.85 billion, driven by growth in investment services fees and financing-related fees [5]. Asset Management - As of September 30, 2025, AUM was $2.14 trillion, showing a slight decline year over year due to net outflows, while assets under custody and/or administration (AUC/A) increased 10.9% to $57.8 trillion [7][10]. - The allowance for loan losses decreased to 0.36% of total loans, with non-performing assets dropping to $160 million from $211 million in the prior year [8]. Capital Position - The common equity Tier 1 ratio was 11.7%, down from 11.9% a year earlier, while the Tier 1 leverage ratio improved to 6.1% [11]. Shareholder Returns - In the reported quarter, the company repurchased shares worth $849 million [12]. Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from relatively higher interest rates, global expansion efforts, and a strong balance sheet, although there are concerns regarding concentration risk due to reliance on fee-based revenues and elevated expenses [13].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce its first interest rate cut of the year, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the policy rate to 4.00-4.25% [2][9] Economic Context - Recent data indicates a weakening U.S. economy, characterized by slower hiring and a rising unemployment rate, which suggests a softening labor market [6] - Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but increasing unemployment pressures policymakers to shift focus towards supporting growth and financial stability [7] Impact on Banks - The expected rate cuts are likely to stabilize banks' funding costs and support net interest income (NII) expansion, a critical earnings driver for banks [8] - Lower benchmark rates may compress yields on loans and securities, but easing funding pressures can help preserve margins [8] - A rate cut is expected to make refinancing more affordable, reducing default risks and improving credit quality for banks [10] Bank-Specific Insights M&T Bank (MTB) - MTB's NII has a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.4% over the past four years, with projections for NII to rise to $7.05-$7.15 billion in 2025 from $6.85 billion in 2024 [11][12] - The bank expects average loans and leases to be between $135 billion and $137 billion in 2025, with total deposits projected at $162-$164 billion [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB's earnings implies year-over-year increases of 10.9% and 13.7% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [14] Bank OZK (OZK) - OZK's NII rose in the first half of 2025, with expectations for continued improvement [17] - The bank has experienced a 10.8% revenue CAGR from 2019 to 2024, driven by loan growth and higher fee income [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OZK's earnings implies year-over-year rises of 3.6% and 5.9% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [19] Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) - TCBI's NII has a CAGR of 4.1% over the past three years, with expectations for continued growth due to rate cuts and improving loan demand [22] - The bank is advancing its strategic plan to improve efficiency and diversify revenues, including acquiring a $400 million healthcare loan portfolio [23] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TCBI's earnings implies year-over-year increases of 39.1% and 11.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [25]