Core Viewpoint - Gambling.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:GAMB) is identified as an oversold stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $8.50, highlighting its potential as a capital-light investment opportunity in the rapidly legalizing US online gambling market [1]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Gambling.com reported a 21% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $39 million, primarily driven by a quadrupling of revenue in its sports data services segment to $9.2 million, which now constitutes 25% of total revenue for 2025 [2]. - Despite the revenue growth, the company faced challenges in its marketing division, which remained flat year-over-year due to unfavorable search ranking dynamics and poor organic search quality, leading to a downward revision of its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $165 million [3]. Company Overview - Gambling.com operates as a performance marketing company within the online gambling industry, serving markets in North America, the UK, Ireland, Europe, and internationally [4].

Market Outlook - Dan Greenhaus expressed a positive outlook for the market, citing strong earnings growth, the ongoing AI narrative, and a more accommodative Federal Reserve as macro tailwinds [1] - Despite a lackluster year-end performance, Greenhaus emphasized that underlying tailwinds are more significant than the specific closing figures [2] - Sonali Basak predicted mid-to-high single-digit returns for the year, attributing end-of-year weakness to selectivity in the AI theme and rate sensitivity [3] Earnings and Valuation - Cameron Dawson suggested a fair value range for the market of 7,200 to 7,400, indicating that lower returns would keep valuations flat, with earnings growth as the primary driver [4] - Current earnings are at $310 per share with a projected growth rate of 15%, but there is limited room for volatility or multiple expansion [4] Company-Specific Insights: Life360 Inc. (NASDAQ:LIF) - Life360 experienced a 39.24% decline over the past three months, with an average upside potential of 50.29% [10] - The company completed a $120 million acquisition of Nativo, enhancing its advertising capabilities and surpassing 50 million Monthly Active Users in the US [11] - DA Davidson initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $94 price target, highlighting potential for international growth and new revenue streams from advertising and pet GPS subscriptions [12][13] Company-Specific Insights: Gambling.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:GAMB) - Gambling.com saw a 32.81% decline over the past three months, with an average upside potential of 57.75% [14] - The company reported a 21% year-over-year revenue increase to $39 million, driven by a quadrupling of revenue in its sports data services segment [15] - Despite revenue growth, the company faced challenges in its marketing division, leading to a downward revision of its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $165 million [16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record third-quarter revenue of $39 million, representing a 21% year-over-year increase [13] - Adjusted EBITDA grew 3% year-over-year to $13 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33% compared to 39% in the previous year [16] - Gross profits increased 17% to $35.6 million, while the gross profit margin decreased to 91.2% from 94.7% year-over-year [13][14] - Free cash flow was $9.6 million, down from $14.2 million in the previous year due to timing differences [16][17] - The company revised its full-year guidance to approximately $165 million in revenue and $58 million in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting continued headwinds from poor search dynamics [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sports data services revenue quadrupled to $9.2 million, accounting for 25% of total revenue [5][13] - The marketing business revenue remained flat year-over-year, with new depositing customers (NDCs) down 13% to 101,000 [13] - Subscription revenue constituted 24% of total revenue, and recurring revenue was 49% of total third-quarter revenue [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North American market saw a 55% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, primarily driven by sports data services [45] - The marketing business in the U.S. grew year-over-year, while it was flat globally, with a decline in Canada impacting overall performance [45] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on the growth of its sports data services business, which is expected to continue growing organically at a healthy pace in 2026 and beyond [6][12] - The marketing business is expected to grow in 2026 and beyond, with a focus on diversifying away from SEO channels [20][41] - The company aims to leverage its strong cash flow to invest in product development and diversification strategies [16][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of search rankings and the potential for revenue improvement as Google addresses quality issues in search results [26][28] - The company anticipates mid-teens revenue growth and around 10% adjusted EBITDA growth as it heads into 2026 [39] - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in the marketing business but emphasized the resilience and potential for future growth [21][22] Other Important Information - The company acquired Spotlight.Vegas for $8 million and repurchased approximately 562,000 shares for a total of $4.7 million during the quarter [17] - The company has $70.5 million of undrawn capacity in its credit facility, providing flexibility for capital structure optimization [17][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What gives confidence to grow the business in 2026 despite current challenges? - Management noted improvements in Google search rankings towards the end of October, leading to better traffic and revenue [26][27] Question: How is the B2C side of the business performing? - Consumer data services revenue grew marginally, with RotoWire subscriber numbers up 21% year-on-year [30] Question: What is the progress on OpticOdds commercialization? - Management indicated a clear product-market fit and a long runway for growth, with opportunities beyond data and bet settlement [35] Question: How does the company view the upcoming U.K. budget? - An increase in gaming duty could negatively impact player lifetime values, but management does not expect significant growth or decline in the U.K. market next year [61] Question: How is the company thinking about leverage and capital allocation? - Management is focused on optimizing capital allocation, with no plans to leverage beyond existing credit facilities until there is more growth visibility [63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 39% year over year to $40.6 million, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 56% to $15.9 million [7][14] - Gross profit rose by 42% year over year to CHF 38.4 million, with a gross profit margin of 94.5%, up 200 basis points from the previous year [15][16] - Adjusted net income increased by 78% to GBP 16.5 million, and adjusted diluted net income per share rose by 92% to $0.46 [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The marketing business grew by 13%, delivering over 138,000 new depositing customers (NDCs), representing a 29% growth year over year [14] - The sports data services business quadrupled in revenue contributions, with subscription revenue accounting for 24% of total revenue [14][15] - Recurring revenue, including revenue share arrangements, constituted 50% of total first-quarter revenue [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - iGaming revenues increased by 24% year over year, driven by organic growth and contributions from acquisitions [10] - The company continues to grow market share in the UK and Europe, with expectations for growth in North America as well [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve $100 million in adjusted EBITDA, with a focus on expanding beyond marketing into sports data services [8][12] - The integration of OddsJam and Optic Odds is progressing well, with expectations for at least 20% growth in adjusted EBITDA from these acquisitions [9][12] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance technology and digital marketing capabilities, which is expected to drive organic growth [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the online gambling industry, stating that economic slowdowns have historically not impacted growth [11] - The company reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting a midpoint revenue of $172 million, representing 35% year-over-year growth [21] - Management highlighted the potential for growth in the prediction markets, indicating a favorable regulatory environment [90][95] Other Important Information - The company has total cash of CHF 21.5 million and CHF 70.5 million of undrawn capacity on its credit facility [20] - A swap agreement was entered into to convert a portion of US dollar borrowings to euro, reducing the cost of debt capital by approximately 200 basis points [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is Gambling.com doing to keep its content relevant amid changing consumer behavior? - Management noted that they are seeing high revenue from their marketing business driven by natural search and are also benefiting from referrals from generative AI tools like ChatGPT [25][26][29] Question: Any updates on the performance of Optic Odds? - Management reported that Optic Odds is growing rapidly and has hired a senior salesperson to expand its distribution in Europe [32][34] Question: How does the company view the potential for other operators to increase performance marketing? - Management indicated that as low-cost acquisition channels become exhausted, operators will increasingly rely on affiliate marketing, which is central to their strategies [38][40] Question: Can you quantify the impact of the euro on revenue and EBITDA guidance? - Management stated that while there are slight positive effects from the euro's strength, it is not significant enough to alter revenue expectations [42][45] Question: What is the path to achieving the $100 million EBITDA goal? - Management indicated that with current guidance, they would be 68% of the way there this year, and strategic acquisitions could accelerate this timeline [48][49] Question: How is the company positioned to benefit from potential tax increases in the US? - Management acknowledged that tax increases could impact player lifetime value but noted that adjustments would be made over time [79][80] Question: What is the outlook for iGaming legislation in the US? - Management expressed optimism about developments in Ohio and the potential for a streamlined regulatory approach, which could benefit the market [60][62]