Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. reported a 10.6% year-over-year increase in Ollie's Army membership, reaching 16.1 million, which now accounts for approximately 80% of total sales, highlighting the program's significance in driving growth and customer engagement [1][8] - The reimagined Ollie's Days event, aimed at rewarding loyal customers, resulted in a nearly 60% increase in new member acquisitions during the event week and contributed an estimated 100 basis points to comparable store sales for the quarter [2][8] - Ollie's Army members exhibit stronger spending habits, spending about 40% more than non-members, which underscores the program's critical role in the company's sales momentum [3][8] - The company anticipates comparable store sales growth of 3-3.5% for fiscal 2025, reflecting confidence in its strategic initiatives and the strength of its loyal customer base [4] Competitive Landscape - Walmart's membership strategy, focusing on Walmart+ and Sam's Club, saw a 15.3% growth in membership fee income globally, with Sam's Club U.S. achieving 7.6% growth in membership income [6] - Target's Target Circle 360 program led to over 25% growth in same-day delivery and a 4.3% increase in digital comps, with a penetration rate of 16.9% for the Target Circle Card, indicating strong customer engagement [7]

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) is expected to report first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on June 3, with projected revenues of $564.7 million, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase [1][9] - However, the company is anticipated to experience a decline in earnings per share, estimated at 70 cents, which represents a 4.1% decrease from the previous year [2][9] Key Factors Driving OLLI's Q1 Performance - The business model of "buying cheap and selling cheap," along with cost-containment efforts and a focus on store productivity, is likely to contribute to strong revenue performance [3] - The Ollie's Army loyalty program has seen continuous membership growth, with over 15.1 million active members, accounting for more than 80% of sales [3] - The company is expected to achieve comparable store sales growth of 1% for the first quarter [4] Expansion and Market Position - Ollie's ongoing store expansion strategy is projected to drive incremental revenues, with plans to open 21 new stores in the first quarter [5] - The company has successfully opened former "99 Cents Only" stores and Big Lots locations, showcasing the scalability of its business model [5] Cost Pressures and Margin Outlook - Earnings are likely to decline due to elevated pre-opening and dark rent expenses from aggressive expansion, as well as rising selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs [6] - A sluggish start to the quarter and tough year-over-year comparisons are expected to limit same-store sales growth, with an anticipated contraction of 160 basis points in operating margin [6] Earnings Prediction Model - The model predicts an earnings beat for Ollie's, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +4.29% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7][8]