Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tencent Holdings Ltd. and reiterates it as a "Top Pick" with a price target raised to HK$650.00 from HK$630.00, reflecting a 31% upside potential from the current price of HK$496.60 [6][8][24]. Core Insights - The report anticipates solid revenue growth of 11% and non-IFRS operating profit (OP) growth of 14% for 2Q25, driven by strong performance in online games and advertising sectors, while also noting a slight recovery in FinTech and Business Services (FBS) [1][2][4]. - Online games are expected to grow by 16% in 2Q25, with international game growth outpacing domestic growth, supported by strong grossing receipts from previous quarters [2]. - Advertising revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-over-year, bolstered by AI-driven ad technology improvements and enhanced user engagement through Weixin Search [3]. - FBS is expected to see a 6.5% year-over-year increase, with solid business service growth of 15% and gradual expansion in international cloud services [4]. - The report highlights a narrowing leverage between revenue and operating profit growth due to increased AI-related costs, while gross profit is expected to reach Rmb98 billion, up 15% year-over-year [5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Estimates - Total revenues for 2Q25 are estimated at Rmb179.018 billion, reflecting an 11.1% year-over-year increase, with gross profit expected at Rmb98.314 billion, a 14.5% increase [12]. - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at Rmb66.580 billion, up 13.9% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 37.2% [12]. Financial Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, revenue is estimated at Rmb732.526 billion, with a projected net profit of Rmb207.054 billion [8][40]. - The report also provides a detailed breakdown of expected earnings per share (EPS) growth, projecting Rmb22.11 for 2025 and Rmb26.29 for 2026 [8]. Valuation and Price Target - The price target of HK$650 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, including a DCF value of HK$569 per share for core businesses and HK$81 per share for associate investments, applying a 30% discount to the investment value [20][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HK$670, implying an expected share price return of 28.6% and a total return of 29.5% [3][10]. Core Insights - Tencent's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, with total revenues growing by 13% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb180.0 billion, driven by strong performance in domestic games and online advertising, which grew by 24% and 20% yoy, respectively [1][2]. - Non-IFRS net profit for 1Q25 was Rmb61.3 billion, reflecting a 22% yoy increase, surpassing consensus estimates [1][2]. - The report highlights the ongoing benefits of AI integration across Tencent's business segments, contributing to higher margins and revenue growth [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Total Value-Added Services (VAS) revenues increased by 17% yoy to Rmb92 billion, with online games revenues at Rmb59.5 billion, up 24% yoy [1][2]. - Online advertising revenues rose by 20% yoy to Rmb31.9 billion, exceeding expectations [1][2]. - Fintech and business services revenues grew by 5% yoy to Rmb54.9 billion, driven by consumer loan services and wealth management [1]. Deferred Revenues - Total deferred revenues increased by 15% yoy to Rmb127.4 billion, with current deferred revenues up 16% yoy [1][2]. Capital Expenditure - Tencent's capital expenditure for 1Q25 was Rmb27.5 billion, representing a significant increase of 91% yoy [1][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings Ltd. is "Overweight" with an attractive industry view [5][70]. Core Insights - The report indicates a modest upside and a modest revision higher in the earnings forecast, strengthening the overall investment thesis [2][7]. - Tencent's total revenues for 1Q25 reached RMB 180.022 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.9% and beating consensus estimates by 2.6% [3][7]. - The gaming segment showed significant growth, with online games revenue increasing by 23.7% year-over-year, surpassing consensus by 7.6% [3][7]. - Gross profit rose by 19.8% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 55.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [3][7]. - Non-IFRS net profit increased by 22% year-over-year, also exceeding consensus expectations by 4% [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Value-Added Services (VAS) revenue was RMB 92.133 billion, up 17.2% year-over-year, with online games contributing RMB 59.5 billion [3]. - Online advertising revenue was RMB 31.853 billion, reflecting a 20.2% increase [3]. - FinTech and Business Services revenue was RMB 54.907 billion, a 5% increase [3]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit (Non-IFRS) reached RMB 69.320 billion, an 18.3% increase year-over-year [3]. - The diluted EPS for 1Q25 was RMB 5.1, a 16.9% increase year-over-year [3]. - **Future Projections**: - The fiscal year 2025 revenue is projected to be RMB 726 billion, with an expected EPS of RMB 23.30 [5][70]. Valuation and Price Target - The price target for Tencent Holdings Ltd. is set at HK$630.00, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of HK$521.00 [5]. - The valuation methodology includes a discounted cash flow (DCF) approach with a 10% discount rate and a 3% terminal growth rate [8][9].