Summary of Tencent Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Industry**: Online Gaming and Internet Services - **Market Cap**: HK$5,111 billion / US$651 billion [4][33] Key Points Growth and Performance - **Q2 Expectations**: Tencent's domestic grossing is expected to decline mid to high single digits YoY in Q2, following a solid performance in Q1 [2][3] - **Flagship Titles**: Games like HoK and PKE showed healthy growth, with Delta Force contributing significantly despite a high base from DnFm [2][3] - **Delta Force**: This title is gaining traction, with its daily active users (DAU) and time spent per user surpassing PKE, indicating strong growth potential [2][11][13] Industry Trends - **Resilience Against Macro Uncertainty**: The online gaming sector is less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations due to its unique and immersive experiences, leading to a quasi-monopoly for developers [3][10] - **Evergreen Titles**: Loyalty among Chinese gamers to top IP franchises is increasing, supported by Tencent and NetEase's investments in evergreen titles, which reduces the risk associated with new game launches [3][10] - **Multi-Platform Strategy**: Game operators are adopting multi-platform strategies to enhance user retention and tap into higher ARPU segments, exemplified by Delta Force and PKE [3][10] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues for Tencent are expected to grow from Rmb 660,257 million in 2024 to Rmb 736,731 million in 2025 [7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025 is Rmb 27.29, with a growth trajectory leading to Rmb 33.64 by 2027 [5][7] - **Valuation**: Trading at 18x/16x 2025E/26E P/E, indicating potential long-term value [10] Future Catalysts - **Upcoming Releases**: Anticipated launches include Delta Force's console version in August, Valorant mobile, and the 10th anniversary of HoK in October, which could serve as growth catalysts [10][15] - **AI Integration**: The use of AI in gaming is enhancing user experience through improved content updates, matchmaking, and analytics, which supports user retention [9][10] Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Landscape**: The evolving competitive environment poses risks, including new business execution and rising costs associated with traffic acquisition and content [19][10] - **Regulatory Risks**: Ongoing regulatory scrutiny could impact operations and profitability [19][10] Investment Recommendation - **Rating**: Buy with a 12-month price target of HK$710.00, reflecting a forecasted stock return of 30% [4][17][33] Conclusion Tencent Holdings is positioned for growth despite macro uncertainties, driven by strong performance in evergreen games and a robust pipeline of upcoming titles. The company's multi-platform strategy and AI integration further enhance its competitive edge, although it must navigate regulatory and competitive challenges.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tencent Holdings Ltd. and reiterates it as a "Top Pick" with a price target raised to HK$650.00 from HK$630.00, reflecting a 31% upside potential from the current price of HK$496.60 [6][8][24]. Core Insights - The report anticipates solid revenue growth of 11% and non-IFRS operating profit (OP) growth of 14% for 2Q25, driven by strong performance in online games and advertising sectors, while also noting a slight recovery in FinTech and Business Services (FBS) [1][2][4]. - Online games are expected to grow by 16% in 2Q25, with international game growth outpacing domestic growth, supported by strong grossing receipts from previous quarters [2]. - Advertising revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-over-year, bolstered by AI-driven ad technology improvements and enhanced user engagement through Weixin Search [3]. - FBS is expected to see a 6.5% year-over-year increase, with solid business service growth of 15% and gradual expansion in international cloud services [4]. - The report highlights a narrowing leverage between revenue and operating profit growth due to increased AI-related costs, while gross profit is expected to reach Rmb98 billion, up 15% year-over-year [5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Estimates - Total revenues for 2Q25 are estimated at Rmb179.018 billion, reflecting an 11.1% year-over-year increase, with gross profit expected at Rmb98.314 billion, a 14.5% increase [12]. - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at Rmb66.580 billion, up 13.9% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 37.2% [12]. Financial Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, revenue is estimated at Rmb732.526 billion, with a projected net profit of Rmb207.054 billion [8][40]. - The report also provides a detailed breakdown of expected earnings per share (EPS) growth, projecting Rmb22.11 for 2025 and Rmb26.29 for 2026 [8]. Valuation and Price Target - The price target of HK$650 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, including a DCF value of HK$569 per share for core businesses and HK$81 per share for associate investments, applying a 30% discount to the investment value [20][24].

Tencent Holdings Equity Research Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings Limited - **Industry**: Internet and Online Services in the People's Republic of China (PRC) - **Segments**: Internet value-added services, mobile and telecommunications value-added services, online advertising, and others [23][24] Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Expected total revenue growth of approximately 9.7% YoY to about RMB 177 billion in 2Q [2][15] - **Online Games Revenue**: Anticipated increase of about 12% YoY to approximately RMB 54.4 billion, driven by evergreen titles [2][15] - **Marketing Services Revenue**: Expected to grow about 17% YoY to RMB 35 billion, supported by traffic growth from video accounts and AI improvements [2][15] - **Fintech and Business Services (FBS)**: Estimated revenue growth of 7% YoY to RMB 54 billion [2][15] - **Non-IFRS Operating Profit**: Projected to grow 13% to about RMB 66 billion [2][15] - **Non-IFRS Earnings**: Expected to reach about RMB 62.5 billion, largely unchanged [2][15] Core Insights and Strategies - **AI Strategy**: The company maintains a robust AI strategy across various segments, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and revenue generation [2][3][15] - **Gaming Strategy**: Focus on rejuvenating existing games and developing new franchises, with Delta Force achieving a record peak DAU of 12 million in April 2025 [2][3][15] - **Advertising Outlook**: Multiple growth drivers identified, including increased ad loads on Video Accounts and improvements in click-through rates (CTR) due to AI [2][3][15] - **Fintech Focus**: Emphasis on risk management within fintech operations, with a positive outlook on commercial payment trends [3][15] Investment Thesis - **Rating**: Buy - **Price Target**: HK$ 665, representing a potential upside of 34% from the current price of HK$ 497.60 [6][15] - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [15][24] - **Risks**: Include unsuccessful launches of new games, slower-than-expected growth in online ads, and aggressive investments in new initiatives [18][24] Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility - **Carbon Neutrality Goal**: Pledged to achieve carbon neutrality across operations and supply chains by 2030 [12][13] - **Data Security and Employee Engagement**: Prioritizing data security and employee diversity as key material issues [12][13] Conclusion Tencent Holdings is positioned for solid growth driven by its diverse revenue streams, strong gaming portfolio, and strategic investments in AI and fintech. The company’s commitment to sustainability and risk management further enhances its long-term investment appeal.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tencent, NetEase, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Bilibili, indicating a favorable outlook for these companies [8][9][10]. Core Insights - Content consumption in the gaming and entertainment sectors has shown resilience compared to goods and services year-to-date, creating a high entry barrier for new competitors, benefiting established players like Tencent and NetEase [2][3]. - The outlook for AI has been tempered by lower-than-expected capital expenditure and cloud revenue growth, but confidence is expected to return with improved user statistics and cloud growth acceleration [2][3]. - E-commerce remains highly competitive, with the 618 shopping festival seen as a pivotal moment for food delivery services, impacting the competitive landscape [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Preferences - The report favors sub-sectors with higher earnings visibility and less exposure to macroeconomic conditions, particularly online games, with Tencent expected to benefit from robust earnings growth driven by popular titles and new launches [3][8]. - NetEase is also highlighted for its recovery in mobile game growth and new game launches, while Alibaba is noted for potential cloud growth acceleration that could enhance its AI valuation [3][8]. - Bilibili has been upgraded due to improved margin outlook and resilient performance in games and advertising, while Kuaishou is recognized for its growth visibility in ads and attractive valuation [3][8]. Company Valuations - Tencent's target price is set at HKD630.00, reflecting a 22% upside from its current price of HKD515.00, with a PE ratio of 20.1x for 2025 [9][24]. - NetEase's target price is USD150.00, indicating a 17% upside from USD128.63, with a PE ratio of 17.0x for 2025 [9][24]. - Alibaba's target price is USD176.00, suggesting a 47% upside from USD119.96, with a PE ratio of 17.0x for 2025 [9][24]. - Kuaishou's target price is HKD75.00, representing a 38% upside from HKD54.50, with a PE ratio of 15.0x for 2025 [9][24]. - Bilibili's target price is USD22.50, indicating a 22% upside from USD18.48, with a PE ratio of 27.1x for 2025 [9][24].