8 December 2025 | 10:04PM HKT Equity Research China consumer staples: Beverage expert call: leaders to remain strong on new products/PoS expansion; Eastroc/Nongfu to maintain We hosted an investor call with a beverage industry expert on 8 Dec to discuss 2026 contract growth and competition dynamics across our covered beverage names. The expert's company carries key brands, including Nongfu, Wahaha, Eastroc, Tingyi and UPC etc across different regions with large scale (Rmb100mn+~Rmb300mn+ per brand). We note ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that 28 leading FMCG companies in China have successfully penetrated over 100 million urban and town households, indicating a competitive landscape where capturing consumer attention is crucial [2][10]. Group 1: Market Penetration and Growth - The 28 FMCG leaders collectively added 2.13 million new urban/town buying households, reflecting a mean increase of 0.8% year-on-year [2]. - Vinda Group exhibited the highest growth rate at 10.4%, while other companies like Wahaha, Nongfu Spring, Orion, and Uni-President also reported significant gains [2][3]. - The top five fastest-growing manufacturers expanded their consumer base primarily by targeting lower-tier markets, with Vinda gaining 13.59 million new households from tier-3 to tier-6 cities and towns [11][13]. Group 2: Consumer Trends and Preferences - Consumers are increasingly rational, seeking tangible returns for their spending, which has led companies to tailor products to meet diverse demographic needs [6][10]. - Health consciousness is rising among consumers, driving demand for zero-sugar beverages and 100% fruit juices, with Nongfu Spring's products attracting millions of new households [6][10]. - The demand for convenience and specialized products is evident, as seen in Vinda's success with various tissue products that cater to specific consumer needs [5][10]. Group 3: Retail Landscape and Strategies - The retail environment in China is evolving towards greater diversity and personalization, necessitating an omnichannel strategy for manufacturers [7][10]. - Despite flat overall penetration in offline and e-commerce channels, specific segments like snack-discount stores and membership stores have seen significant growth, with snack-discount stores increasing by 7.3 percentage points [8][9]. - The penetration of Douyin's in-app mall has risen by over five percentage points, indicating a shift in consumer shopping behavior towards social commerce [8][9]. Group 4: Economic and Market Dynamics - Urban sales across various tiers showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with township markets experiencing the highest growth at 4.2% [10]. - The national policy is increasingly favoring lower-tier markets, which are becoming vital for future growth in the FMCG sector [10][11].

Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) - **Industry**: China Consumer Staples - **Market Cap**: HK$588.2 billion / $75.7 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$576.0 billion / $74.1 billion - **Price Target**: HK$60.50 - **Current Price**: HK$52.30 - **Upside Potential**: 15.7% [6][21] Key Points from the Conference Call Financial Guidance and Performance - **FY25 Guidance**: The company reiterated its guidance for mid-teens percentage year-over-year sales growth and slight margin expansion [1][2] - **Sales Growth**: Expected to achieve mid-teens percentage growth driven by strong brand positioning and effective marketing strategies targeting younger consumers [1][11] - **Long-term Growth Target**: Aiming for double-digit percentage year-over-year sales growth annually, focusing on sustainable growth in water and tea products [1][11] Product Categories and Marketing Strategies - **Water Segment**: Management is confident in restoring sales, margin, and market share levels to 2023 figures, leveraging strong brand recognition and marketing efforts [11][22] - **Tea Products**: Continued outperformance in non-sugar tea with new flavors introduced, maintaining promotional levels similar to previous years [11][22] - **Juice Products**: C100 Juice has seen the fastest growth due to successful marketing campaigns targeting young consumers [22] - **Functional Drinks**: Sales have re-accelerated, supported by marketing activities aimed at younger demographics [22] Margin and Cost Outlook - **Margin Improvement**: Expected slight margin expansion in FY25 due to recovery in water sales, better product mix, and cost benefits from lower PET costs [22] - **Cost Management**: The company has noted that PET costs are currently at approximately 50% of 2019 levels, contributing to profitability [22] - **Investment Strategy**: Plans to maintain capital expenditures of around Rmb4 billion annually, focusing on production line expansions and marketing investments [22] Risks and Challenges - **Market Dynamics**: November 2025 is seen as a critical period for observing changes in market dynamics due to distributor contract renewals [11][21] - **Cost Inflation**: Potential risks include lower-than-expected sales momentum and higher-than-expected cost inflation impacting profitability [21] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for the next few years are as follows: - 2024: Rmb42,896 million - 2025: Rmb50,696 million - 2026: Rmb58,453 million - 2027: Rmb65,120 million [6][17] - **EBITDA Growth**: Expected to grow from Rmb17,865 million in 2024 to Rmb29,516 million by 2027 [6][17] - **EPS Growth**: Anticipated EPS growth from Rmb1.07 in 2024 to Rmb1.78 in 2027 [6][17] Conclusion Nongfu Spring is positioned for solid growth in the coming years, driven by effective marketing strategies and a strong brand presence. The company is focused on maintaining its growth trajectory while managing costs and navigating potential market challenges. The investment outlook remains positive with a buy rating and a target price reflecting significant upside potential.

Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Nongfu Spring - **Ticker**: 9633.HK - **Period**: 1H25 Key Financial Highlights - **Sales**: Rmb25.6 billion, up 15.6% year-over-year (YoY) [1] - **Net Profit**: Rmb7.6 billion, up 22.1% YoY [1] - **Sales Growth vs. Guidance**: Sales and net profit exceeded guidance estimates (GSe) of Rmb25.4 billion and Rmb7.3 billion, respectively [1] - **Operating Profit**: Grew by 28% YoY, with an operating profit margin (OPM) increase of 3.6 percentage points YoY [1] - **Gross Margin**: 60.3%, up 1.5 percentage points YoY, driven by lower costs in packaging materials and sugar [6] Segment Performance - **Tea Sales**: Increased by 20% YoY, driven by strong momentum from the Oriental Leaf brand and the launch of new Iced Tea products [6] - **Functional Beverages**: Grew by 14% YoY [6] - **Juice Sales**: Increased by 21% YoY [6] - **Packaged Water Sales**: Up 11% YoY [1] Cost Management - **Selling Expenses**: Rmb5,011 million, up 1% YoY, with a selling expense ratio down to 19.6% from 22.4% YoY [6][7] - **Administrative Expenses**: Rmb1,068 million, up 17% YoY, with a stable ratio of 4.1% [7] - **Other Expenses**: Increased due to higher donations and exchange losses, from Rmb6 million in 1H24 to Rmb127 million in 1H25 [7] Cash Position - **Total Cash and Bank Deposits**: Rmb26.4 billion, up 24% from the end of 2024 [7] - **Net Cash**: Rmb22.0 billion, also up 24% from the end of 2024 [7] Future Outlook - **Investor Briefing**: Scheduled for August 27, focusing on 2H25 guidance, competition strategy, product strategy, and raw material cost outlook [2] - **Key Investor Focus**: Competition strategy within the water and tea segments, new growth drivers, and mid to long-term margin outlook [2] Risks and Price Target - **Price Target**: HK$48.00, based on a 30X 2026E P/E [11] - **Key Risks**: Lower-than-expected sales momentum in tea and water, higher cost inflation, and increased competition in the beverage industry [11] Conclusion Nongfu Spring demonstrated strong financial performance in 1H25, with significant growth across multiple beverage segments and effective cost management strategies. The upcoming investor briefing is expected to provide further insights into the company's future growth strategies and market positioning.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the polarization between New and Old Consumption in China, highlighting three key trends: 1. A stagnant economy limits overall growth, creating selective opportunities [1] 2. Supply-demand mismatches and corporate competency gaps challenge companies amid commoditized supply and demanding consumers [1] 3. A new generation of consumers seeks instant, experiential, and affordable "dopamine" experiences, reflecting a global trend [1] Analytical Framework - The "365" framework is reiterated, consisting of: 1. **Three macro themes**: structural imbalance of supply, demand, and intermediary channels [2] 2. **Six behavior patterns**: emotional value quest, instant gratification, focus on IP/contents, she-economy, brand demystification, and upgrade vs. downgrade [2] 3. **Five baskets**: emotional value, health & wellness, addictiveness, value for money, and new channels [2] New vs. Old Consumption - Definitions of New and Old Consumption are often ambiguous; adaptation to trends is crucial [3] - Strategies for Old Consumption include product innovation, brand rejuvenation, and channel recalibration [3] - Risks for New Consumption include scalability, lifecycle sustainability, and regulatory challenges [3] Market Dynamics - New Consumption was a significant trade in 1H25 due to macro weakness and liquidity, but recent market rotations have negatively impacted it [4] - Earnings sustainability and visibility are emphasized as key factors for investment decisions [4] Stock Picks - Preferred companies based on fundamentals and valuation include: - **New Consumption**: Pop Mart and Laopu Gold - **Old Consumption incorporating New Consumption**: Mao Geping, Eastroc, and Nongfu Spring - Mixue is rated as Underperform due to unfavorable risk-reward dynamics [5] Performance Metrics - New Consumption stocks have shown a 70% increase in share price since March 2025, while Old Consumption remains largely flat [14] - New Consumption trades at a 71% premium to Old Consumption on average since 2024 [17] Consumer Behavior Insights - The report identifies a quest for emotional value driven by stress and a fragmented society, leading to a rise in "dopamine consumption" [45] - Instant gratification and granular "dopamine" are becoming prevalent due to shorter attention spans and digital media immersion [56] - The she-economy is reshaping consumption narratives, with female consumers becoming more vocal and influential [82] Brand Dynamics - Brand demystification is occurring as traditional branding foundations are challenged, leading to a new storytelling journey for brands [94] - The rise of emotional value and community sharing is significant in the she-economy, with consumers focusing on quality-for-money rather than brand prestige [93] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving landscape of consumer behavior in China, particularly the distinctions between New and Old Consumption, and the implications for investment strategies in the consumer sector [1][2][3][4][5]

Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) - **Industry**: Beverage Industry Key Financial Metrics - **1H25E Sales**: Rmb 25.4 billion, up 15% YoY - **1H25E Net Income**: Rmb 7.3 billion, up 17% YoY - **NPM**: Expected to expand to 28.7% from 28.1% in 1H24 [1][9][14] Sales Growth Drivers - **Juice and Tea**: Both categories expected to grow by 18% YoY in 1H25, driven by strong consumer demand and new product launches [1][9] - **Packaged Water**: Anticipated recovery with 13% YoY growth, rebounding from a low base of -18% YoY in 1H24 [1][9] - **Functional Drinks**: Expected to grow by 10% YoY, benefiting from new flavors and product introductions [1][9] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Market Share Recovery**: Nongfu Spring is focusing on regaining market share for its flagship red-bottle water product, with positive results noted since April [1][9] - **Competitor Dynamics**: Potential consumer migration opportunity from Wahaha, which gained 8-10 percentage points in market share in 2024 but is currently facing publicity issues [1][9] Outlook for 2H25 - **Continued Improvement**: Anticipated growth driven by a lower comparative base, especially in the water segment [1][9] - **Product Innovation**: Nongfu's strong product innovation and effective marketing strategies are expected to adapt to changing consumer preferences towards healthier drinks [1][9] Margin Expansion - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected improvement due to lower raw material prices and a favorable product mix [1][9] - **Operating Profit Margin (OPM)**: Anticipated better expansion compared to NPM, influenced by social responsibility donations [1][9] Earnings Forecast and Price Target - **Revenue Estimates**: Increased by 1-3% for 2025-27E, reflecting improved consumption sentiments and successful product launches [9][14] - **Earnings Growth**: Projected 3-9% higher earnings in 2025-27E, with 17%/20% YoY sales/NP growth in 2025 and 14%/16% in 2026 [9][14] - **12-Month Price Target**: Increased from HK$43.6 to HK$48.0, with a reiteration of "Buy" rating [9][14] Additional Insights - **Consumer Trends**: Increasing health awareness among consumers is driving growth in juice and functional drinks [1][9] - **Promotional Campaigns**: Successful campaigns, such as QR code promotions for sugar-free tea, have expanded the consumer base [1][9] Summary of Key Drivers - **Total Revenue Growth**: Expected to reach Rmb 50.1 billion in 2025, with a YoY growth of 16.9% [13][14] - **Segment Performance**: Packaged drinking water, tea, functional beverages, and juice are all expected to contribute positively to overall revenue growth [13][14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Nongfu Spring's performance, outlook, and strategic positioning within the beverage industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Eastroc, Tingyi, CR Beverage, and Nongfu, with a preference for the beverage sector within staples due to growth potential and earnings visibility [9]. Core Insights - The beverage sector in China has shown a year-to-date rally of 19%, outperforming the MSCI China staples index, which increased by 8% [1]. - Despite rising competition, the sector is expected to sustain long-term volume growth and profit visibility into 2025, driven by a solid product cycle and cost benefits [9]. - Key debates in the beverage space include the impact of freshly made drinks (FMD) due to intensified food delivery subsidies, the ongoing product cycle, and margin resilience amid competition [1][2][8]. Summary by Sections Impact of Freshly Made Drinks (FMD) - FMD has seen a volume boost from delivery subsidies, with a potential short-term impact on ready-to-drink (RTD) soft drinks due to cannibalization [2]. - The analysis suggests a limited overall impact on the beverage industry, primarily affecting nearby soft drink points of sale (POS) [2]. - A scenario analysis indicates a potential low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage impact on daily volume sold by RTD soft drinks, assuming a 50% cannibalization rate [19]. Product Cycle Dynamics - The product cycle remains a critical driver, with sugar-free drinks, new flavors, and sports/energy drinks gaining traction [3][39]. - New product launches, such as Eastroc's Ice Tea and UPC's sugar-free tea, are expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2025 [7][41]. - The focus on health and functional benefits continues to shape consumer preferences, leading to a rise in innovative beverage offerings [39][40]. Margin Resilience and Cost Benefits - The report highlights manageable impacts from competition risks, with cost benefits expected to continue into the second half of 2025 [8]. - Unit cost deflation is revised to 2.3% to 6.3% for the beverage segments, which is anticipated to offset potential declines in average selling prices (ASP) [8][64]. - Companies are adjusting promotional strategies and scaling down promotions for classic SKUs while benefiting from ASP hikes on larger pack beverages [64].