Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary - Moby Strategic Performance and Operational Context Achieved record 2025 revenues of $719 million, successfully transitioning the business model following the loss of exclusivity for legacy products Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR. Growth was primarily driven by a 40% revenue increase across four key products: Qelbree, GOCOVRI, ZURZUVAE, and ONAPGO, which now represent 76% of total revenues. Successfully integrated the Sage Therapeutics acqui ...

Core Insights - Supernus Pharmaceuticals reported $211.57 million in revenue for Q4 2025, marking a 21.5% year-over-year increase and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.57% [1] - The company's EPS for the same quarter was $0.92, a significant increase from $0.75 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of 228.57% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.28 [1] Revenue Performance - Trokendi XR generated $8.4 million in net product sales, below the average estimate of $5.81 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 43.2% [4] - Oxtellar XR reported $6.8 million in net product sales, surpassing the average estimate of $5.75 million, but showing a year-over-year decrease of 48.5% [4] - APOKYN achieved $9.6 million in net product sales, slightly below the average estimate of $9.93 million, with a year-over-year decline of 52.2% [4] - Qelbree's net product sales were $81 million, below the average estimate of $87.72 million, but showing an 8.9% year-over-year increase [4] - Collaboration revenue from ZURZUVAE was $32.8 million, exceeding the average estimate of $28.05 million [4] - Total net product sales amounted to $158.1 million, below the average estimate of $193.42 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 5% [4] - Royalty, licensing, and other revenues reached $20.7 million, significantly above the average estimate of $3.25 million, with a year-over-year increase of 166.6% [4] - ONAPGO net product sales were $8.9 million, exceeding the average estimate of $6.1 million [4] - GOCOVRI generated $38.6 million in net product sales, slightly below the average estimate of $42.64 million, with a year-over-year increase of 4.6% [4] Stock Performance - Supernus shares have returned +3.1% over the past month, contrasting with a -1% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Record total revenues of $211.6 million and $719.0 million in the fourth quarter and full year 2025, a 21% and 9% increase compared to same periods last year. Combined revenues of the Company's four growth products increased to $161.3 million and $521.8 million in the fourth quarter and full year 2025, representing year-over-year growth of 45% and 40% respectively. The strong growth in both periods was driven by an increase in net sales of Qelbree® and GOCOVRI®, and the addition of sales from ZURZUVAE® and ...

Core Insights - The sale of shares by Aristotle Capital Boston indicates profit-taking in Supernus Pharmaceuticals, which is operationally performing well but facing scrutiny regarding its durability and valuation [1][9]. Company Overview - Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a mid-cap biopharmaceutical company focused on therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders, with a market capitalization of $2.7 billion and a revenue of $681.5 million over the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4][5]. - The company reported a net income loss of $19.1 million TTM, indicating challenges in profitability despite operational momentum [4][10]. Recent Developments - Aristotle Capital Boston reduced its holdings in Supernus by 503,122 shares, bringing its total position down to 305,273 shares valued at $14.6 million as of September 30 [2]. - The shares sold were valued at approximately $10.9 million, reflecting a strategic reallocation of capital rather than a loss of confidence in the company [2][11]. Financial Performance - Supernus reported a 9% year-over-year revenue increase in the third quarter, totaling $192.1 million, driven by over 50% growth from its four key products [10]. - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, indicating confidence in its near-term execution despite facing rising expenses and integration risks [10][11]. Market Position - Supernus shares have increased by approximately 31% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which rose about 13% in the same period [3]. - The company’s focus on specialty conditions and established distribution channels supports its competitive position in the U.S. CNS therapeutics market [5][8].

Core Insights - Cwm LLC increased its holdings in Supernus Pharmaceuticals by 92.4% in Q2, owning 3,080 shares valued at $97,000 [2] - Other institutional investors also adjusted their stakes, with notable increases from GAMMA Investing LLC (116.7% increase) and State of Wyoming (58.8% increase) [3] - Insider trading activity included CEO Jack A. Khattar selling 140,000 shares for approximately $5.88 million, reducing his ownership by 11.96% [4] Institutional Holdings - Cwm LLC's investment grew to 3,080 shares after acquiring an additional 1,479 shares in Q2 [2] - Caitong International Asset Management and BI Asset Management both acquired new stakes in Q1, valued at approximately $41,000 and $46,000 respectively [3] - State of Wyoming increased its holdings to 4,754 shares, worth $156,000 after buying 1,761 additional shares [3] Insider Activity - CEO Jack A. Khattar sold 140,000 shares at an average price of $42.02, totaling $5,882,800, leaving him with 1,030,183 shares valued at approximately $43.29 million [4] - SVP Frank Mottola sold 14,000 shares at an average price of $44.51, resulting in a total transaction of $623,140 and a 47.46% decrease in ownership [4] - In the last three months, insiders sold 362,741 shares valued at $16.39 million, with insiders owning 8.80% of the stock [4] Stock Performance - Supernus Pharmaceuticals shares opened at $55.13, with a market capitalization of $3.09 billion and a P/E ratio of 47.94 [5] - The stock has a 1-year low of $29.16 and a high of $57.65, with a fifty-day moving average of $48.02 [5] Analyst Ratings - Bank of America initiated coverage with a "buy" rating and a target price of $65.00 [6] - Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target from $46.00 to $63.00, maintaining an "overweight" rating [6] - The consensus rating for Supernus Pharmaceuticals is "Buy" with an average target price of $63.25 [6] Company Overview - Supernus Pharmaceuticals focuses on developing and commercializing products for central nervous system diseases [8] - Key products include Trokendi XR for epilepsy and migraine prophylaxis, and Oxtellar XR for partial onset seizures [8]

Core Insights - SUPN has shown significant growth with a revenue of $165 million in its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report and has launched a new treatment for Parkinson's disease [1] - The stock has increased by 46% this year, indicating strong investor interest, particularly from institutional investors [2][3] - SUPN has a strong fundamental backdrop with an estimated EPS growth of +36.2% this year and a 1-year sales growth rate of +8.9% [4][6] Institutional Support - There has been strong institutional demand for SUPN, evidenced by unusual trading volumes and a history of outlier inflow signals [3][7] - The stock has been a top-rated pick at MoneyFlows for years, reflecting unusual buy pressure and growing fundamentals [5] Financial Performance - SUPN has demonstrated robust financial performance with a remarkable 3-year EPS growth rate of +1,792.4% [6] - The combination of strong fundamentals and significant money flows has historically led to substantial stock price increases [4][7] Price Prediction - Given the historical gains and strong fundamentals, SUPN is considered a potential candidate for a diversified investment portfolio [8]

Core Insights - Supernus Pharmaceuticals reported $165.45 million in revenue for Q2 2025, a year-over-year decline of 1.7% but exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $154.14 million by 7.34% [1] - The company achieved an EPS of $0.91, significantly higher than the $0.36 from the previous year, resulting in an EPS surprise of 93.62% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.47 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Trokendi XR generated $11.2 million in net product sales, surpassing the average estimate of $9.74 million, but reflecting a year-over-year decline of 34.5% [4] - Oxtellar XR reported $11.6 million in net product sales, exceeding the estimated $8.43 million, with a significant year-over-year decrease of 60.7% [4] - Qelbree achieved $77.6 million in net product sales, outperforming the $71.25 million estimate, marking a year-over-year increase of 30.6% [4] - Total net product sales amounted to $158 million, above the average estimate of $148.32 million, but showing a year-over-year decline of 2.8% [4] - Royalty revenues reached $7.46 million, exceeding the estimated $5.33 million, with a year-over-year increase of 28.6% [4] - GOCOVRI net product sales were $36.7 million, surpassing the $33.51 million estimate, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.8% [4] - Other net product sales totaled $6.5 million, below the estimated $8.21 million, with a year-over-year decline of 13.3% [4] - APOKYN generated $12.8 million in net product sales, below the average estimate of $15.6 million, with a year-over-year decrease of 26% [4] Stock Performance - Supernus shares have returned +17.8% over the past month, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Supernus Pharmaceuticals reported $149.82 million in revenue for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 4.3% and a surprise of +2.91% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $145.59 million [1] - The company achieved an EPS of $0.42, compared to $0.00 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of +10.53% against the consensus estimate of $0.38 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Trokendi XR generated $12.80 million in net product sales, exceeding the average estimate of $8.58 million, but representing a year-over-year decline of -20% [4] - Oxtellar XR reported $10.20 million in net product sales, below the average estimate of $12.29 million, with a significant year-over-year decrease of -62.1% [4] - Qelbree achieved $64.70 million in net product sales, slightly below the average estimate of $65.54 million, but showing a year-over-year increase of +43.5% [4] - Total net product sales amounted to $141.99 million, surpassing the average estimate of $140.61 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of +2.6% [4] - Royalty revenues reached $7.84 million, exceeding the estimated $5.80 million, with a year-over-year increase of +51.2% [4] - GOCOVRI net product sales were $30.70 million, above the average estimate of $30.13 million, marking a year-over-year increase of +15.9% [4] - Other net product sales totaled $8.60 million, surpassing the average estimate of $7.38 million, with a year-over-year growth of +19.4% [4] - APOKYN reported $15 million in net product sales, below the average estimate of $16.70 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -10.2% [4] Stock Performance - Supernus shares returned +0.4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +11.5% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance against the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $149.8 million, compared to $143.6 million in Q1 2024, reflecting an increase driven by core products KELRI and GOCOVRI [14][16] - Total revenues excluding Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR increased by 26% year-over-year [6][15] - GAAP net loss for Q1 2025 was $11.8 million, or loss per diluted share of $0.21, compared to a GAAP net earnings of $124,000 in the prior year [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - KELRI grew by 22% in prescriptions and 44% in net sales, with March 2025 prescriptions reaching an all-time high of 75,277, up 25% year-over-year [7][8] - GOCOVRI prescriptions increased by 12% and net sales increased by 16% compared to the same quarter last year [8] - Combined net sales of Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR were down 46% [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Medicare Inflation Reduction Act led to a 42% decline in GOCOVRI's Medicare co-pay, resulting in increased prescriptions among Medicare patients [8] - By March 2025, 84% of GOCOVRI's Medicare prescriptions cost patients less than $25 [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to drive growth through core products while investing in its pipeline and launching new products like NAPCO [9][11] - Corporate development remains a top priority, focusing on strategic opportunities to enhance future growth [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth trajectory of KELRI, emphasizing strong prescription growth and market position [20] - The company is well-positioned for continued growth despite the loss of exclusivity on legacy products, focusing on cash flow generation and operational efficiency [56][57] Other Important Information - The company has approximately $463.6 million in cash and marketable securities as of March 31, 2025, reflecting strong financial flexibility [16] - The company reiterated its 2025 financial guidance, expecting total revenues between $600 million and $630 million [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Key growth drivers for KELBRE in 2025 - Growth will be driven by volume rather than price, with a small price increase implemented [20] Question: Timing for data readout from SPN-eight 20 study - Best case scenario for starting the study is before year-end 2025, with data expected in about 1.5 years [24] Question: Impact of Q1 dynamics on KELBRE net pricing - Q1 typically sees pressure on gross to net pricing, with expectations for improvement in subsequent quarters [28] Question: Reimbursement discussions for ONAPCO - The company expects a high percentage of enrollment forms to be fulfilled, with a strong support system in place [34] Question: Competitive dynamics versus AbbVie product - Initial feedback on ONAPCO has been positive, with a strong start in the market [42] Question: Proportion of naive patients on KELBRE - Approximately 32-33% of patients are naive first-line treatments, with the remainder being switches from other medications [51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $149.8 million, compared to $143.6 million in Q1 2024, reflecting an increase driven by core products [14] - Total revenues excluding Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR increased by 26% year-over-year [6][15] - GAAP net loss for Q1 2025 was $11.8 million, or loss per diluted share of $0.21, compared to a GAAP net earnings of $124,000 in the prior year [16] - Adjusted operating earnings for Q1 2025 were $25.9 million, up from $22.3 million in Q1 2024 [17] - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, were approximately $463.6 million, an increase from $453.6 million at the end of 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - KELBRE saw a 22% increase in prescriptions and a 44% increase in net sales, with March 2025 prescriptions reaching an all-time high of 75,277 [7] - GOCOVRI prescriptions increased by 12% and net sales increased by 16% compared to the same quarter last year [8] - Combined net sales of Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR were down 46% in Q1 2025 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Medicare Inflation Reduction Act led to a 42% decline in GOCOVRI's Medicare co-pay, resulting in increased prescriptions among Medicare patients [8] - 84% of GOCOVRI's Medicare prescriptions cost patients less than $25 by March 2025 [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive growth from core products while investing in its pipeline and launching new products like NAPCO [9][57] - Corporate development remains a top priority to strengthen future growth through strategic opportunities [11][57] - The company plans to initiate a follow-on phase 2b trial for SPN-eight twenty in adults with major depressive disorder [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth trajectory of KELBRE, emphasizing that growth will be driven more by volume than price [21] - The company is confident in its ability to navigate the current environment, including potential tariff impacts, as most products are shielded from tariffs [12] - Management reiterated guidance for total revenues in 2025 to range from $600 million to $630 million [18] Other Important Information - The company is focused on enhancing its infrastructure for new product launches, ensuring a smooth transition from patient enrollment to product delivery [30] - The company has established a strong support system for patients and physicians, which is seen as a competitive advantage [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Key growth drivers for KELBRE in 2025 - Growth will be driven by both volume and a small price increase, with a strong prescription growth observed in Q1 [21] Question: Timing for data readout from the study on SPN-eight twenty - The study is expected to start before year-end 2025, with data potentially available in about 18 months [25] Question: Impact of Q1 dynamics on KELBRE net pricing - Q1 typically sees pressure on gross to net pricing, but improvements are expected in subsequent quarters [29] Question: Reimbursement discussions for ONAPCO - The company expects a high percentage of enrollment forms to be fulfilled, with a strong support system in place for reimbursement [34] Question: Competitive dynamics regarding ONAPCO - Initial feedback from physicians has been positive, and the product is seen as a strong alternative to existing therapies [45] Question: Potential indications for SBN-eight twenty - The company is considering multiple indications, including ADHD and sleep-wake disorders, but has not finalized the lead indication yet [48]