Core Insights - The Indian smartphone market is projected to see a decline in shipments, with approximately 34.5 million units expected in Q4 2025, a 7% year-over-year decrease, and an annual total of 154.2 million units, reflecting a slight 1% decline [1][2] - Vivo maintains its leading position in both quarterly and annual shipments, with a market share of 23% in Q4 and 21% for the year, showing a growth rate of 19% [2][3] - The market is experiencing a shift towards value-driven strategies, influenced by rising component costs, cautious consumer spending, and extended upgrade cycles [1][4] Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2025, Vivo shipped approximately 7.9 million units, capturing 23% of the market share, followed by Samsung with 4.9 million units (14% share) and OPPO with 4.6 million units (13% share) [1] - The overall decline in Q4 shipments is attributed to high channel inventory, currency depreciation, and increased memory costs leading to higher product prices, which have weakened purchasing power [1][2] Annual Performance - For the full year, Vivo's total shipments reached 32.1 million units, securing a 21% market share, while Samsung and OPPO followed with 23 million and 20 million units, respectively [2] - Apple ranked fifth with a market share of approximately 10%, showing the most significant growth among the listed companies at 28% year-over-year [2] Market Dynamics - The fourth quarter is characterized as a period for inventory digestion, with brands like Vivo and OPPO achieving double-digit year-over-year growth due to strong retail execution and effective product management [2][3] - Other leading brands faced challenges, including cautious channel behavior and price adjustments, with Samsung and Xiaomi experiencing sales slowdowns despite targeted promotions [2][3] Future Outlook - The Indian smartphone market is expected to see a mid-single-digit percentage decline in 2026, driven by rising terminal prices and limited incremental value in products [3][4] - Brands are anticipated to shift focus towards value growth strategies in the entry-level market, particularly in the ₹25,000 to ₹60,000 segment, which offers better profit margins [3][4] - The high-end market above ₹60,000 will continue to be dominated by Apple, Samsung, and Vivo, with brands increasingly relying on channel leverage and localized marketing strategies to maintain market stability [4]

Core Insights - The Indian smartphone market is expected to see a year-on-year decline of 7% in Q4 2025, with shipments dropping to 34.5 million units, influenced by high channel inventory, currency depreciation, and rising storage costs affecting purchasing power in the mid-to-low-end market [2][11] - Vivo maintained its leading position in Q4 2025 with shipments of 7.9 million units, capturing a market share of 23%, followed by Samsung with 4.9 million units (14% share) and OPPO with 4.6 million units (13% share) [2][11] - The overall smartphone shipments for India in 2025 are projected to be 154.2 million units, reflecting a mild decline of 1% year-on-year, indicating a trend towards a more mature market [2][12] Market Dynamics - Brands are adjusting their Minimum Official Prices (MOP) to cope with rising component costs, particularly in price-sensitive models, leading to a cautious approach from retailers and a slowdown in shipments from November [5][8] - Vivo and OPPO are the only brands to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth, showcasing their strong retail execution and ability to attract consumer demand [5][8] - Samsung's shipments have slowed despite maintaining a value-driven strategy through selective upgrades and cashback offers, while Xiaomi's volume has declined, relying heavily on entry-level models [8][10] Future Outlook - The Indian smartphone market is expected to experience a slight decline in 2026, driven by high prices and limited upgrade opportunities, with a shift towards value-driven growth strategies among Chinese brands focusing on the ₹25,000–₹60,000 price segment [10] - Brands will increasingly rely on channel leverage, including service bundling, financing options, and trade-in programs, as hardware differentiation becomes limited due to rising storage costs [10] - Retail execution capabilities, including promotional strength and localized sales strategies, will be crucial for maintaining market stability amid cautious consumer demand [10]