更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Sungrow Power Supply 300274.SZ 300274 CH In our Downgrade to Neutral on tariff headwinds published on 26 April, we turned cautious on Sungrow's 2025F earnings due to tariff headwinds and intensified competition in emerging markets. Based on our latest industry check, we estimate its 4Q24 and 1Q25 energy storage system (ESS) shipment to be strong at 10GWh and 12GWh, with US shipments accounting for 15% and 20%, respectively. Therefore, we raise Sungrow's 2Q25F earnings as its ...

In 2024, Ginlong Technologies' (Ginlong) revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring NP were RMB6,542/691/637mn (+7.23/-11.32/-18.94% yoy). The attributable NP was below our previous forecast of RMB1,155mn, mainly due to weaker demand from overseas PV and storage inventory destocking, in our view. In 1Q25, revenue was RMB1,518mn (+8.65% yoy) and the attributable NP was RMB195mn (+860/+774% yoy/qoq), mainly driven by strong revenue growth from power-station business. The company is a top-tier player in th ...

Equity Research Report Sineng Electric (300827 CH) Overseas Expansion Boosted Earnings, Demand Poised to Rise | Huatai Research | Company Update | Rating (Maintain): | BUY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 14 May 2025 │ China (Mainland) | Power Equip & New Energy | Target price (RMB): | 34.00 | Sineng Electric's 2024 revenue/attributable net profit (NP) were RMB4,773/419mn (-3.2/+46.5% yoy), the latter missing our prior estimate of RMB503mn, mainly due to weaker shipments of PV inverters to domestic ground-moun ...

Summary of Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sungrow Power Supply - **Ticker**: 300274.SZ - **Market Cap**: Rmb121,946 million (approximately US$16,733 million) [11] Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb11,036 million, up 16.9% year-over-year, aligning with consensus estimates [2] - **1Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb3,826 million, a significant increase of 82.5% year-over-year, driven by: - Inverter shipment volumes increased by 19% year-over-year to 34GW - Energy-storage system (ESS) shipments surged to 12GWh, a 4.7x increase year-over-year [2] - **Gross Profit Margin**: Increased by 2.8 percentage points year-over-year to 29.9% in 2024 [2] Shipment and Revenue Projections - **Inverter Shipment Target for 2025**: Expected to rise by 10-20% year-over-year, with an assumption of 162GW [3] - **ESS Shipment Target for 2025**: Initially projected at 40-50GWh, now revised down to 35GWh (+25% year-over-year) due to anticipated tariff increases [3] Market and Tariff Impact - **US Market Importance**: Accounts for 10-20% of revenue, but is crucial for higher margins [1] - **Tariff Impact**: ESS shipments to the US have been suspended due to tariffs exceeding 100%, while inverter shipments remain unaffected as they are produced in Thailand [4] - **Mitigation Strategies**: The company is focusing on cost control and exploring sales in non-US markets to offset tariff impacts [4] Regulatory Environment - **PRC Government Policy No.136**: Introduced on February 9, 2025, adds uncertainty to ESS demand, with a rush in renewable capacity installations expected before June 1, followed by a sharp decline [5] Valuation and Recommendations - **Target Price**: Increased by 10.4% to Rmb53/share [1] - **Current Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER): 12.4x for 2025E - Price-to-Book Ratio (PB): 2.7x - Dividend Yield: 1.7% [1][7] - **Analyst Rating**: Cautious outlook with a "Sell" rating due to uncertainties despite the earnings beat [1] Additional Insights - **Future Earnings Projections**: Net profits are expected to increase by 12% for 2025E and 9% for 2026E [1] - **Overall Market Sentiment**: Despite strong performance in 1Q25, the company faces significant uncertainties that could impact future profitability and growth [1][14]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Sungrow Power Supply from Buy to Neutral, with a target price reduced from CNY 100 to CNY 58 [3][5][21]. Core Insights - The earnings for 1Q25 exceeded expectations due to strong growth in the energy storage system (ESS) segment, with revenue growth of 50.9% year-on-year [1]. - Despite strong shipment forecasts for 2025, the report expresses caution regarding potential earnings due to tariff headwinds and increased competition in emerging markets [2][3]. - The company has suspended ESS shipments to the US market, which typically offers better gross margins, impacting future earnings [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Sungrow reported 4Q24 revenue of CNY 27.9 billion, an 8.0% year-on-year increase, and 1Q25 revenue of CNY 19.0 billion, a 50.9% year-on-year increase [1]. - The net profit for 4Q24 was CNY 3,437 million, up 55% year-on-year, and for 1Q25, it was CNY 3,826 million, up 83% year-on-year [1]. Shipment Forecasts - For 2025, solar and ESS shipments are estimated at 160GW (up 9% year-on-year) and over 40GWh (up 43% year-on-year), respectively [2]. - The company reported solar inverter and ESS shipments of 147GW and 28GWh in 2024, aligning with previous estimates [1]. Valuation Metrics - The new target price of CNY 58 is based on a P/E ratio of 11.3x for 2025F, reflecting a decrease from the previous 16x due to anticipated margin pressures [3][13]. - The report indicates a projected normalized EPS decline from CNY 5.67 to CNY 5.12 for 2025F [3][4]. Market Context - The report highlights intensified competition in the Middle East market, which may further limit Sungrow's shipment and earnings growth in 2H25 [2]. - The company is facing challenges from increased anti-dumping and countervailing duties affecting solar module shipments to the US [2].