Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The start of the summer travel season in the US has led to a rapid decline in gasoline inventories. Although the increase in refinery operating rates will put pressure on gasoline cracks, the cracks will still be strong during the peak season [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 90 cents to $60.94 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 75 cents to $64.15 per barrel, a 1.16% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.97% at 453 yuan per barrel [1] - **US EIA Inventory Data**: For the week ending May 23, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 2.795 million barrels (expected increase of 0.118 million barrels, previous increase of 1.328 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.075 million barrels; gasoline inventory decreased by 2.441 million barrels (expected decrease of 0.527 million barrels, previous increase of 0.816 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 0.724 million barrels (expected increase of 0.481 million barrels, previous increase of 0.579 million barrels); crude oil imports decreased by 0.532 million barrels; crude oil exports increased by 0.794 million barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day; SPR inventory increased by 0.82 million barrels to 401.3 million barrels, a 0.2% increase; commercial crude inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a 0.63% decline [1] - **Malaysia's Biodiesel Policy**: Malaysia will raise the biodiesel blending ratio for ground - transport vehicles from B10 to B20. Currently, a 10% mandatory biodiesel blending policy is implemented nationwide, while B20 is already in place in some areas. Similar pilots are being carried out at major ports. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, has implemented a B40 mandatory blending plan and is considering raising it to B50 [1] - **Kazakhstan's Oil Production**: Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry stated that the country cannot cut oil production, believes that oil prices above $70 - 75 per barrel are suitable for all countries, and plans to produce at least 96 million tons of oil this year with the hope of further increasing production [1] - **Iran - US Nuclear Agreement**: Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Iran sincerely seeks a diplomatic solution but requires a comprehensive agreement to end all sanctions and safeguard Iran's nuclear rights. US President Trump said that the US and Iran are "very close to reaching a solution" [1] - **Nigeria's Oil Exports**: In July 2025, the average export volume of four key grades of Nigerian crude oil is about 694,000 barrels per day, lower than the planned loading volume of 760,000 barrels per day in June [1] Investment Logic - The start of the US summer travel season has led to a decline in gasoline inventories. The decline in gasoline prices has stimulated consumption, and strong overseas demand, along with unstable refinery operations, has pushed gasoline cracks above $20 per barrel. However, the increase in refinery operating rates will put pressure on gasoline cracks, but they will still be strong during the peak season [2] Risks - **Downside Risks**: Reaching of the Iran - US nuclear agreement and macro - black swan events [3] - **Upside Risks**: Tightening of sanctioned oil supplies (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [3]