Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the long - term high international oil prices caused by the short - term irreconcilable Middle East conflicts and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 program, the supply of palm oil will be further tightened, which will provide long - term support for both domestic and foreign palm oil markets. It is recommended to hold long positions in palm oil and shrink the soybean price spread in arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Indonesia's B50 Policy - On March 30, the Indonesian president announced that the mixing ratio of palm oil and diesel would be increased from 40% to 50%, causing the main contract of Malaysian palm oil to rise by 3.2% and the main contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange to rise by 1.66% [7][3]. - As the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia has long relied on imported diesel. To enhance energy security, save foreign exchange, and digest excess palm oil inventory, the government has continuously increased the biodiesel blending ratio since 2023, aiming for B50 (50%) [7]. - In 2026, about 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) will be needed for B50 production, and the total demand for palm - based biofuels will reach about 18 - 20.1 billion liters [7]. Situation of US Soybean Oil - The positive factors for US soybean oil are exhausted after the implementation of the biodiesel plan. US soybean oil has risen from 48 - 70 cents, a 30% increase. Capital has been laying out long - positions for more than four months, and there is an obvious demand for profit - taking [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, the domestic vegetable oil sector showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with weak oscillations and differentiated trends among varieties. The sudden escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has become the biggest uncertainty in the current market, which may push up the international crude oil price, boost the global biodiesel blending demand, and bring additional demand and upward price momentum to vegetable oils. Different types of oils have different supply - demand situations and price trends [6][12][89] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of the night session on February 27, 2026, the Y2605 soybean oil contract was reported at 8,220 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the P2605 palm oil contract was reported at 8,792 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the OI2605 rapeseed oil contract was reported at 9,216 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The BMD crude palm oil futures main contract closed up 0.87% at 4,040 ringgit/ton. As of the close on February 27, the CBOT May soybean contract was reported at 1,170 cents/bushel, up 0.56%; the CBOT May soybean oil contract was reported at 61.77 cents/pound, up 0.02% [6] 3.2 Macroeconomic Dynamics - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in March at $938.87/ton, higher than $918.47/ton in February, and the export tariff on crude palm oil in March rose to $124/ton. From February 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil decreased by 12.29% month - on - month. In January, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil decreased by 13.78% to 1.5775 million tons, consumption increased by 12.78% to 360,600 tons, and exports increased by 11.44% to 1.4843 million tons. The USDA Annual Outlook Forum predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, and the soybean production would reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total demand was expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels. The USDA January report predicted that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 428.18 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from the previous month's forecast. In January 2026, the Canadian rapeseed crushing volume was 1,053,420 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% and a year - on - year increase of 4.24%. Since March 1, 2026, a 5.9% anti - dumping duty has been imposed on imported rapeseed from Canada for 5 years [7][8][9][10][11] 3.3 Future Outlook - **Palm oil**: It is at the end of the traditional seasonal production - reduction cycle and will enter the production - recovery cycle after March. The current inventory in the producing areas is relatively high. The domestic palm oil inventory has started the seasonal accumulation cycle, and the terminal catering demand recovery is slow. However, if the crude oil price continues to rise, it will significantly increase the palm oil biodiesel blending profit and support the price [12][89] - **Soybean oil**: The US EPA has released a positive signal for the 2026 biofuel blending obligation. The global soybean supply pattern remains loose. The domestic soybean oil inventory will enter an accelerated accumulation cycle, but the increase in international oil prices will boost the industrial consumption demand for soybean oil and support the price in the short term [13][90] - **Rapeseed oil**: In February, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in domestic coastal oil mills was at a very low level in the past four years. After the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed is implemented, the import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to improve, and the medium - and long - term supply will be loose. The direct impact of the geopolitical conflict on rapeseed oil is weaker than that on palm oil and soybean oil, but it can gain short - term follow - up momentum [14][90][91] 3.4 Operation Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Temporarily wait and see to avoid short - term sharp fluctuations - **Arbitrage**: None - **Options**: None [15][92] 3.5 Internal and External Market Operation - In February 2026, the domestic vegetable oil sector showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with weak oscillations and differentiated trends among varieties. The BMD crude palm oil futures main contract showed a weak oscillating trend in February. The CBOT soybeans oscillated upward, and soybean oil led the rise unilaterally [26][30][36] 3.6 Fundamental Dynamics - Similar to the macroeconomic dynamics part, including palm oil production in Malaysia, US soybean planting and production forecasts, global soybean supply and demand data, Canadian rapeseed crushing data, and China's anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed [37][38][39][40] 3.7 Domestic Oil Basis Changes - In February, the spot basis of 24 - degree palm oil in China showed a trend of rising before the Spring Festival and falling after the festival. The spot basis of soybean oil in coastal mainstream markets fell from a high level and oscillated narrowly. The basis of rapeseed oil in coastal mainstream markets was firm before the Spring Festival and fell rapidly after the festival [46] 3.8 Three Major Oil Inventories - As of February 20, 2026, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil was 2.2794 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 0.32%, and a year - on - year decrease of 81,100 tons, a decrease of 3.44% [51] 3.9 Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm oil**: In December 2025, China's palm oil imports decreased. In February 2026, the total palm oil transactions of domestic key oil mills decreased. As of February 28, there was 1 palm oil purchase ship and 1 wash - out ship [55][61][62] - **Soybean oil**: In February 2026, the soybean oil production of domestic oil mills decreased. In December 2025, China's soybean oil imports decreased, and exports increased. In February 2026, the total transactions of domestic key oil mills' bulk soybean oil decreased [66][70][71][75] - **Rapeseed oil**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills in February 2026 increased from zero. The rapeseed crushing volume increased, and the rapeseed oil pick - up volume increased [79][84][88]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of domestic soybean and palm oil futures are mainly in a volatile state, with an intraday view of being volatile and strong. The market is affected by multiple factors such as international trade, production, inventory, and policy [5][7] Summary by Variety 1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and strong; Reference view: volatile and strong [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The two key variables in the market are the shipping speed of Brazilian soybeans and the progress of Sino - US agricultural trade consultations. In the short term, the prices of domestic and foreign soybean futures show differentiation. After the National Day holiday, the domestic soybean market may continue the pre - holiday trading logic and remain in a volatile pattern. The suspension of the US agricultural report during the holiday has weakened the impact of US soybean futures on the domestic market [5] 2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and strong; Reference view: volatile and strong [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release monthly data on October 10. Analysts expect the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of September to be 2.15 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease. As the palm oil production in Southeast Asia declines from the seasonal peak and demand is boosted by festivals, inventory pressure may ease. However, the weakening of international crude oil prices during the holiday has reduced the support for palm oil's biodiesel demand. After the holiday, the short - term palm oil futures price is expected to be volatile and strong [7] 3. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and strong; Reference view: volatile and strong [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure due to concerns about production recovery and slowing export growth. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to fall further. CBOT soybean oil may continue to decline but with limited跌幅. Domestic soybean oil prices are supported, and basis quotes are expected to be slightly adjusted [1]. Meal Industry - Affected by the decline in crude oil and fully - priced - in short - term positive factors, US soybeans have recently declined. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, and the futures may follow the decline of US soybeans in the short term, but the downside support is expected to strengthen [2]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is still in a shock structure. The current breeding profit is declining, but self - breeding and self - raising still have profits. The market is cautious about expanding production capacity. The short - term futures may be strong, but there is a risk of decline near the delivery of the 09 contract if the live inventory continues to be postponed [4][5]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn price is firm, but the upside is limited due to feed substitution. In the long term, the supply is tight, the import volume is low, and the consumption is increasing, so the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Sugar Industry - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. If there are no new negative factors, the possibility of a sharp decline in sugar prices is small. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [11][12]. Cotton Industry - The market driving force is still weak, and the downstream开机 rate continues to decline while the finished product inventory rises. However, the basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively strong. The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range [13]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is still relatively sufficient. The price is expected to rise slightly and then stabilize this week, and may decline slightly later [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On June 26, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8240 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7626 yuan, down 0.52%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8490 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of P2509 was 8230 yuan, up 0.12%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9680 yuan, down 0.52%; the futures price of 01509 was 9242 yuan, down 0.04% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 250 yuan, unchanged; the 2509 spread was - 360 yuan, unchanged. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1440 yuan, down 3.47%; the 2509 spread was 1492 yuan, down 0.67% [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On June 26, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2880 yuan, down 0.69%; the futures price of M2509 was 2993 yuan, down 1.90%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan, down 2.80%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2588 yuan, down 1.47% [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread was 380 yuan, up 13.16%; the 2509 spread was 405 yuan, down 4.69% [2]. Pig Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the pig 2507 contract was 13615 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the price of the 2509 contract was 14000 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 0.75%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.10%, the piglet price increased by 3.17%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 768.97% [4]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the corn 2509 contract was 2377 yuan, up 0.04%. The import profit was 539 yuan, up 4.03%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 60.84% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2732 yuan, down 0.15%. The Shandong starch profit was - 81 yuan, down 17.28% [7]. Sugar Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5577 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; the price of the 2509 contract was 5757 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6070 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; the price in Kunming was 5860 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 11.63% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales increased by 26.07% [11]. Cotton Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13645 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14832 yuan/ton, up 0.84%; the CC Index: 3128B was 14938 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 22.6% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3658 yuan/500KG, up 0.05%; the price of the 07 contract was 2848 yuan/500KG, down 0.84% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.78 yuan/jin, down 0.74%. The breeding profit was - 27.88 yuan/feather, down 19.30% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in Malaysia's biodiesel blending ratio in transport vehicles and the rainfall in the US soybean - growing areas may impact the market. The MPOB April report on Malaysian palm oil is bearish, while the USDA May report on US soybeans is bullish. [7][18] - Attention should be paid to the subsequent production and export changes of Malaysian palm oil and the impact on the inventory - building rhythm, as well as the impact of US weather on soybean production. [18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes for commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products, as well as currency quotes including the US dollar index and various exchange rates, are presented, along with their price changes. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 08 (BMD) is 3903.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.87% and an overnight decline of - 0.76%. [1] 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for futures contracts such as DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in East China is 8620, with a basis of 450 and a basis change of 0. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook (June 3 - 7) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperature and precipitation are close to or higher than normal levels in most areas. The Midwest has more rainfall, which is beneficial for sown areas, but may affect sowing in some southern regions. [3][6] - Policy and Market News - Malaysia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in transport vehicles from B10 to B20. Indonesia has implemented a B40 mandatory blending plan and is considering raising it to B50. [7] - An EU anti - deforestation law will impose new import restrictions. Four countries are classified as "high - risk" and major palm - oil producing countries are "standard - risk", with different compliance inspection rates. [8] - Export and Inventory Data - Market expectations for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are given. Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 10.36% to 16.01 tons in the week ending May 25, but increased by 59.29% year - on - year from August 1, 2024, to May 25, 2025. As of May 25, the commercial inventory was 91.99 tons. [8][9] - Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 29, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 1026% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill startup rate was 63.44%, up 0.75% from the previous day. [11] 04 Macro - economic News - International News - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 96.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 3.8%. US economic data such as initial jobless claims, GDP, and the existing home sales index are released. [13] - There are developments regarding US tariffs and trade agreements, including a federal court's suspension of a tariff - related ruling. [14] - Domestic News - The central bank conducted 2660 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 29, with a net investment of 1115 billion yuan. [16] 05 Supply - Demand Reports - The MPOB April report on Malaysian palm oil shows a significant increase in production and inventory, which is bearish. The USDA May report on US soybeans shows an increase in exports and a decrease in ending stocks, which is bullish. [18] 06 Capital Flows - On May 29, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 197.96 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 22.39 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 220.35 billion yuan. [22] 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The start of the summer travel season in the US has led to a rapid decline in gasoline inventories. Although the increase in refinery operating rates will put pressure on gasoline cracks, the cracks will still be strong during the peak season [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 90 cents to $60.94 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 75 cents to $64.15 per barrel, a 1.16% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.97% at 453 yuan per barrel [1] - **US EIA Inventory Data**: For the week ending May 23, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 2.795 million barrels (expected increase of 0.118 million barrels, previous increase of 1.328 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.075 million barrels; gasoline inventory decreased by 2.441 million barrels (expected decrease of 0.527 million barrels, previous increase of 0.816 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 0.724 million barrels (expected increase of 0.481 million barrels, previous increase of 0.579 million barrels); crude oil imports decreased by 0.532 million barrels; crude oil exports increased by 0.794 million barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day; SPR inventory increased by 0.82 million barrels to 401.3 million barrels, a 0.2% increase; commercial crude inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a 0.63% decline [1] - **Malaysia's Biodiesel Policy**: Malaysia will raise the biodiesel blending ratio for ground - transport vehicles from B10 to B20. Currently, a 10% mandatory biodiesel blending policy is implemented nationwide, while B20 is already in place in some areas. Similar pilots are being carried out at major ports. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, has implemented a B40 mandatory blending plan and is considering raising it to B50 [1] - **Kazakhstan's Oil Production**: Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry stated that the country cannot cut oil production, believes that oil prices above $70 - 75 per barrel are suitable for all countries, and plans to produce at least 96 million tons of oil this year with the hope of further increasing production [1] - **Iran - US Nuclear Agreement**: Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Iran sincerely seeks a diplomatic solution but requires a comprehensive agreement to end all sanctions and safeguard Iran's nuclear rights. US President Trump said that the US and Iran are "very close to reaching a solution" [1] - **Nigeria's Oil Exports**: In July 2025, the average export volume of four key grades of Nigerian crude oil is about 694,000 barrels per day, lower than the planned loading volume of 760,000 barrels per day in June [1] Investment Logic - The start of the US summer travel season has led to a decline in gasoline inventories. The decline in gasoline prices has stimulated consumption, and strong overseas demand, along with unstable refinery operations, has pushed gasoline cracks above $20 per barrel. However, the increase in refinery operating rates will put pressure on gasoline cracks, but they will still be strong during the peak season [2] Risks - **Downside Risks**: Reaching of the Iran - US nuclear agreement and macro - black swan events [3] - **Upside Risks**: Tightening of sanctioned oil supplies (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [3]