Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group with a 12-month price target of HK$90, indicating an upside potential of 30.5% from the current price of HK$68.95 [11][12]. Core Insights - AIA Group is focused on share buybacks, with a decision to shorten the buyback period to three months to capitalize on low share prices. The next buyback decision is expected to align with FY25 results [5]. - The company anticipates limited impact from interest rate changes, with a positive translation effect from the weakness of the USD. The business in mainland China and Thailand is negatively affected by lower rates, while operations in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia benefit from them [5][10]. - AIA is actively expanding its footprint in mainland China, aiming to grow agent numbers in new branches and maintain a similar product mix to established operations. The company expects to receive approvals for 1-2 new provinces each year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Share Buybacks - AIA Group has decided to shorten the buyback period to three months to take advantage of low share prices, with the next review of capital position and free surplus generation expected at FY25 results [5]. Market Movements - The report discusses the impact of foreign exchange, interest rates, and equity market movements, noting that the USD weakness primarily affects translation metrics rather than direct business impact. The company has seen a year-to-date decline in bond yields in China and the US, while rates in Thailand have decreased, potentially leading to negative impacts if current levels persist [5][6]. Sales and Growth in Mainland China - AIA reported a -7% year-over-year decline in Value of New Business (VONB) in mainland China, attributed partly to a strong base effect from 1H24. The company expects easier comparisons in 2H25. The sales mix has shifted towards participating products, which have lower margins compared to non-participating products, but traditional products remain unaffected [10][11]. Footprint Expansion - AIA aims to grow agent numbers in new branches to over 1,000 within the first 1.5-2 years and plans to expand to other cities in the provinces of the new branches. The product mix in new branches is similar to established operations, although average ticket sizes are smaller due to lower income levels in these areas [10][11].