Core Insights - Freight shipments experienced a significant decline in August, with a 9.3% year-over-year drop, marking the largest decrease since October 2023 [1] - The freight expenditures index fell by 2.8% from July to August, with a year-over-year decline of 0.4%, the first such decline in five months [2] - Actual freight rates increased by 9.8% year-over-year, driven by a shift from less-than-truckload (LTL) to truckload (TL) shipments [3] Freight Shipment Trends - The North American domestic freight dataset indicated that LTL shipments were the main contributor to the decline, while truckload and intermodal volumes increased [1] - A forecast suggests that freight shipments will likely decline by 7% year-over-year in September [2] Expenditure and Rate Analysis - The TL linehaul index, which excludes fuel and accessorial surcharges, decreased by 1.8% sequentially but increased by 1.2% year-over-year, marking the eighth consecutive year-over-year increase [6] - Freight expenditures, which include fuel costs, showed a notable decline, with a two-year stacked comparison revealing a 9.4% decrease [2] Capacity and Market Dynamics - The Outbound Tender Reject Index indicates that while current tender rejections are better than the previous year, they do not signal a recovery in truck capacity [4] - A reduction in day cab orders may indicate that private fleets are contracting, potentially leading to a return of lost freight to the for-hire market [6] Economic Outlook - The report expresses a cautious outlook for freight demand, attributing it to the ongoing effects of tariffs and weak demand since the trade war began [7] - The processing of $36 billion in freight payables annually by Cass highlights the scale of the freight market and its sensitivity to economic changes [7]