Core Viewpoint - Former JAB Holding CEO Olivier Goudet has acquired a minority stake in Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), indicating potential confidence in the company's future despite current challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - Olivier Goudet, through his investment arm Platin, has taken just over a 5% stake in TWE [1]. - Following the announcement of Goudet's investment, TWE shares increased by over 7% on the ASX [2]. Group 2: Company Transformation - TWE CEO Sam Fischer announced a "transformation programme" named TWE Ascent, focusing on product review, operating model changes, and cost optimization [3]. - The company aims to achieve A$100 million (approximately $66.9 million) in annual cost savings over the next three financial years [3]. Group 3: Market Challenges - TWE is experiencing category weakness in key growth markets, specifically the US and China, which is expected to impact business performance in the near term [4]. - The company has forecasted an impairment on its US assets of at least A$687.4 million [4]. - TWE withdrew its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance due to an uncertain outlook for its Penfolds brand in China and Treasury Americas businesses [5]. Group 4: Operational Adjustments - Fischer expressed enthusiasm for the transformation agenda, aiming to simplify operations and enhance execution across the business [6]. - TWE is actively reducing inventories held by customers in the US and China amid moderated depletion growth expectations [6]. - The company has canceled plans for a A$200 million share buy-back in the current financial year [7].

Core Viewpoint - Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) is undergoing a transformation program under new CEO Sam Fischer, which includes product reviews and cost-cutting measures, amid declining share prices and challenges in key markets like the US and China [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance and Challenges - TWE's shares have fallen to their lowest level in a decade, closing at A$4.98, down nearly 56% in 2025 [1][7]. - The company has experienced category weakness in the US and China, impacting business performance [2]. - An impairment on US assets is forecasted at A$687.4 million (approximately $450 million) [3]. - TWE withdrew its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance due to an uncertain outlook for its Penfolds brand in China and Treasury Americas businesses [3]. Group 2: Transformation Program - The new program, named TWE Ascent, will focus on evolving the product portfolio, changing the operating model, and optimizing costs [4]. - TWE aims to achieve cost savings of A$100 million annually over the next three financial years [4]. - The company is reducing inventories held by customers in the US and China to align with moderated depletion growth expectations [5]. Group 3: Market Trends - The luxury wine market in the US, defined as wine priced at least $20 per bottle, has declined by over 2% in the last 26 weeks [6]. - Depletions from Treasury Americas are down 4.6% year-to-date [6]. - TWE is restricting shipments contributing to parallel import activity in China to protect the strength of the Penfolds brand [6].

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Treasury Wine Estates (OTCPK:TSRY.Y) - **CEO**: Sam Fisher, who assumed the role on October 27, 2025 - **Key Brands**: Penfolds, DAOU, Frank Family Vineyards, Matua Industry Context - The global alcohol category, particularly the wine industry, is facing challenges - Economic and category dynamics are weak, especially in the U.S. and China - Inventory levels in these markets are above optimal levels, necessitating strategic adjustments Core Points and Arguments 1. **Strategic Actions for Growth**: TWE is taking deliberate strategic actions to ensure sustainable growth, including right-sizing inventory and reducing shipments contributing to parallel imports in China [2][4][5] 2. **Performance Expectations**: First half 2026 EBITS is expected to be between AUD 225 million and AUD 235 million, with a higher second half expected [6][11] 3. **Inventory Management**: TWE will reduce customer inventory holdings in the U.S. and China, particularly for ultra-luxury tiers, by approximately 400,000 cases over two years [5][13][14] 4. **TWE Ascent Program**: A multi-year transformation program targeting AUD 100 million in annual cost improvements over two to three years, focusing on portfolio evolution, operating model simplification, and execution excellence [6][21][23] 5. **Market Dynamics**: Depletions growth in China for Penfolds was 21% in the three months to October, but growth expectations have been moderated due to market dynamics [12][14] 6. **Luxury Market Position**: The U.S. is the largest luxury wine market, and TWE has a strong portfolio, but execution needs to improve to realize full potential [9][15][41] 7. **Challenges in the U.S.**: Recent performance in California has been weak, impacting near-term depletions growth expectations for Treasury Americas [15][16] 8. **Parallel Import Issues**: Parallel import activity is disrupting Penfolds' pricing, prompting TWE to take significant action to protect the brand [5][14][31] Additional Important Insights 1. **Long-term Opportunities**: Asia, particularly China, remains a significant long-term opportunity for TWE, with Penfolds well-positioned [9][10] 2. **Operational Complexity**: TWE's current operating model is complex, with opportunities for simplification to enhance efficiency and accountability [10][22] 3. **Financial Health**: Leverage is expected to be 2.5 times in the first half of 2026, above the target range of 1.5-2 times for approximately two years [6][19] 4. **Cost Management**: The company is focused on retaining the strength and flexibility of its capital structure while managing inventory and operational costs [19][20] 5. **Brand Strength**: Despite challenges, TWE's brands remain strong, and there is confidence in their future potential [3][23] Conclusion - TWE is navigating a challenging environment with strategic actions aimed at ensuring long-term growth and brand strength. The focus on inventory management, operational simplification, and execution excellence is critical for overcoming current market dynamics and positioning the company for future success.

INVESTOR UPDATE For personal use only 17 December 2025 Important information All references to '$' throughout this presentation refer to Australian Dollars, unless marked otherwise. This presentation is in summary form and is not necessarily complete. It should be read together with the Company's Annual Report for 30 June 2025 including the Appendix 4E, the Appendix 4D and 2025 Interim Results, and other announcements lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange, which are available at www.asx.com.au. Thi ...

Treasury Wine announced a company-wide overhaul including asset sales and cost cuts, as the Penfolds producer tackles weakening demand in its key markets https://t.co/N59MBiwphp ...

Treasury Wine Estates today (15 December) requested a pause in the trading of its shares on the Australian Securities Exchange, ahead of a planned update to its outlook. In a statement, the Penfolds winemaker said it had asked for the trading halt to be "effective immediately". TWE said it was preparing for an investor and analyst call in two days' time, "which will include information regarding the company's outlook". The group has requested the pause to run "until the earlier of the commencement of n ...

Core Viewpoint - Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) has withdrawn its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance due to an uncertain outlook for its Penfolds brand and Treasury Americas business [1][3] Group Performance - TWE's shares fell over 15% to A$5.93, marking their lowest level in over a decade following the earnings guidance withdrawal [2] - First-quarter shipments for fiscal 2026 met expectations in key markets, but Penfolds sales in China are soft, leading to concerns about achieving depletion targets [2][3] Earnings Guidance - TWE had previously anticipated low to mid double-digit EBITS growth for Penfolds in fiscal 2026, which has now been scrapped, along with a 15% EBITS growth expectation for fiscal 2027 [3] - The company is currently unable to provide revised guidance due to ongoing uncertainty [3] Distribution Challenges - In the US, TWE's Treasury Americas business faced shipment issues due to the exit of distributor RNDC from California, effective September [4] - The company appointed Breakthru Beverage Group as the new distributor in California in July [4] Financial Impact - TWE had expected a A$50 million hit to net sales revenue in fiscal 2026 due to the distributor change in California [5] - Ongoing discussions with RNDC aim to find a practical solution to mitigate the impact on shipments and operating plans [5][6] Share Buy-Back Program - TWE has paused its on-market share buy-back program until there is greater clarity regarding trading conditions and expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - Treasury Wine Estates has withdrawn its earnings guidance for 2026 and paused a planned A$200 million share buyback due to weak sales of its Penfolds wines in China and distribution challenges in the U.S. [1][5] Sales Performance - Sales of Penfolds in China have been weaker than expected, attributed to changing alcohol consumption habits and fewer large-scale banqueting occasions [2][3] - The company indicated that if current performance trends continue, Penfolds depletions targets for fiscal 2026 in China are unlikely to be achieved [3] Financial Impact - The withdrawal of guidance for Penfolds in fiscal years 2026 and 2027 reflects high uncertainty in the Chinese market [4] - The transition to a new distributor in the U.S. is expected to result in a loss of around A$50 million in sales, with ongoing negotiations over approximately A$100 million of inventory held by the previous distributor [5] Strategic Response - Treasury is implementing several initiatives to mitigate the impacts of a weaker Chinese market, including reallocating products to select customers in other key markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - Treasury Wine Estates has withdrawn its earnings guidance for 2026 and paused a planned A$200 million ($130 million) share buyback due to weak sales of its Penfolds wines in China and distribution challenges in the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: Sales Performance - Sales of Penfolds in China have been weaker than expected, attributed to changing alcohol consumption habits and fewer large-scale banqueting occasions [2][3] - The company indicated that if current performance trends continue, Penfolds depletions targets for fiscal 2026 in China are unlikely to be achieved [3] Group 2: Financial Impact - The withdrawal of guidance for Penfolds in FY26 and FY27 reflects high uncertainty in the Chinese market [4] - The transition to a new distributor in the U.S. is expected to result in a loss of around A$50 million in sales, with ongoing negotiations over approximately A$100 million of inventory held by the previous distributor [5] Group 3: Strategic Response - Treasury is implementing several initiatives to mitigate the impacts of a weaker Chinese market, including reallocating products to select customers in other key markets [6]

Core Insights - Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. shares have fallen to a 10-year low after the company withdrew its earnings guidance for the 2026 financial year and paused a planned share buy-back due to uncertain market conditions in China and California [1][4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price dropped by as much as 14% on Monday morning, reaching its lowest point since September 2015, following the announcement of the earnings guidance withdrawal [2]. - The planned A$200 million ($130 million) share buy-back has been paused after being 15% completed, reflecting the company's cautious outlook [6]. Market Challenges - Lower-than-expected stock depletions in China during September have raised concerns that the depletion targets for the 2026 financial year may not be met [2][5]. - A distributor transition in California is negatively impacting Treasury Americas' performance, leading the company to retract its guidance for modest EBITS growth in that region [3]. Leadership Transition - The announcement of the earnings guidance withdrawal and share buy-back pause comes as new CEO Sam Fischer prepares to take over from outgoing head Tim Ford, highlighting the challenges facing the new leadership [4].