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2 Domestic Auto Stocks to Buy Amid EV Incentive Expiry, Industry Woes
ZACKS· 2025-09-18 16:06
Industry Overview - The Zacks Domestic Auto industry encompasses companies involved in designing, manufacturing, and retailing various types of vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, and electric vehicles [3] - The industry is highly consumer cyclic and is undergoing significant transformation due to technological advancements and rapid digitization [3] Key Themes Shaping the Industry - New vehicle sales remained strong in August, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate exceeding 16 million, but rising vehicle prices and tariffs may slow momentum as affordability weakens [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut may not significantly alleviate high auto loan costs, with meaningful relief not expected until 2026 or later [5] - Electric vehicle sales surged to a record 146,332 units in August, driven by the impending expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit, but demand may sharply decline once the incentives are removed [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Automotive – Domestic industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 147, placing it in the bottom 40% of approximately 250 Zacks industries, indicating a negative earnings outlook [7][8] - Despite the overall weakness, the Domestic Auto industry has outperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and sector over the past year, gaining 31% compared to 24% for the sector and 18% for the S&P 500 [10] Current Valuation - The industry is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 45.27X, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 18.34X and the sector's 22.83X, reflecting the debt-laden nature of automotive companies [13] Company Highlights Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) - Blue Bird is a leader in low- and zero-emission school buses, with over 20,000 vehicles in operation and a strong demand for its products [17] - The company delivered a record 271 electric buses in the last quarter and raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $205-$215 million, indicating a margin of approximately 14.5% [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLBD's fiscal 2025 and 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 8% each, with bottom-line estimates suggesting improvements of 17% and 3% respectively [19] Xos, Inc. (XOS) - Xos specializes in fully electric, zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks, with a growing customer base including major operators like UPS and FedEx [23] - The company reported a 50% year-over-year increase in deliveries, with revenues climbing 18.7% to $18.4 million, and generated positive free cash flow of $4.6 million [24] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOS's 2025 and 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 3% and 25.5% respectively, with bottom-line estimates suggesting improvements of 46% and 27% [25]
Xos(XOS) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-13 21:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record revenue of $18.4 million in Q2 2025, with 135 vehicle deliveries, marking the highest quarterly revenue and unit deliveries in its history [7][20] - GAAP gross margin for Q2 was 8.8%, down from 20.6% in Q1 2025 and 13.1% in Q2 2024, primarily due to a shift in product mix and unexpected tariff impacts [21] - Operating loss for Q2 was approximately $7.1 million, the lowest since going public, improving from $9.3 million in Q1 2025 [9][23] - Positive free cash flow of $4.6 million was reported, the highest in company history, compared to negative $4.8 million in Q1 2025 [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Step Van platform remains a significant revenue contributor, while the company is diversifying into higher-margin products like powertrain systems and charging infrastructure [12] - Deliveries to Bluebird Corporation for electric school buses are increasing, with nearly 20 powertrain units ordered since the quarter ended [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong demand from national carriers like UPS and FedEx, which underscores confidence in its products [7] - The Hub product has attracted interest from various industries facing grid constraints, indicating a growing market for fleet electrification solutions [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on disciplined growth, improving gross margins, and ensuring liquidity as its strategic pillars [6] - Plans to enhance margins and reduce customer concentration through a diversified product portfolio are in place, with ongoing development of the Hub product and power resiliency solutions [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in improving gross margins over time as production scales and cost reduction initiatives are executed [21] - The company remains optimistic about its long-term vision and future, emphasizing adaptability in navigating supply chain challenges and tariff impacts [34][49] Other Important Information - The company amended the repayment structure for a convertible note, allowing for principal repayment in installments, which enhances liquidity [11] - The company is actively exploring options for enhancing liquidity and has maintained positive non-GAAP gross margins for eight consecutive quarters [10][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Performance compared to competitors - Management highlighted the strength of their team, customer trust built over years, and adaptability in operations as key factors for outperforming competitors [30][32][34] Question: Update on MDXT truck - Management reported strong customer interest and ongoing demonstrations, indicating a solid potential order backlog for the MDXT truck [36][38][40] Question: Impact of tariffs - Management quantified the tariff impact on average selling prices, noting it varies by product and customer, and emphasized their approach to share tariff costs with customers [41][43][44]
Viking Goes Industrial: Andreas Halvorsen Takes Big Swing On Beaten-Down Regal Rexnord
Benzinga· 2025-04-21 14:46
Group 1 - Regal Rexnord Corp has seen a significant increase in investment from Viking Global Investors, with a 309.19% increase in its stake after acquiring 2.68 million shares [1] - Despite a 39.91% decline in stock value over the past year and a 35.81% drop in 2025, Viking's investment indicates a belief in potential recovery [2] - Regal Rexnord is set to report its first-quarter earnings on May 5, which could influence market perception if results indicate a turnaround [3] Group 2 - The industrials sector is currently facing challenges due to tightening capital expenditure budgets and macroeconomic uncertainty, but Regal Rexnord's diversified portfolio may provide resilience [4] - The stock has declined an additional 18.51% this month, yet Viking's investment suggests a view of opportunity rather than risk [4]