Financial Performance & Strategic Transformation - Coty's Prestige fragrance leadership has strengthened, with sales reaching approximately $3.5 billion in FY25, reflecting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10% from FY21 to FY25[3,6] - Consumer Beauty stabilized and grew, achieving approximately $2.1 billion in sales in FY25, with a CAGR of 2% from FY21 to FY25[7,8] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.082 billion in FY25, representing an 18.4% margin, and a CAGR of 9% from FY21 to FY25[10] - The company delivered approximately $850 million in savings over five years[34] Challenges & Outlook - Coty faced challenges in CY25, including U.S execution weakness, retailer inventory build-up, and headwinds from lapping FY24 innovation[14,16] - Underperformance in the U.S significantly impacted FY25 results, with Coty revenues declining by mid-single digits percent in the U.S Prestige Beauty market (market growth of +4%) and by mid-teens percent in the U.S Mass Beauty market (market decline of -1%)[17] - For 1H FY26, the company anticipates a LFL revenue decline of 6% to 8% in 1Q26 and a LFL revenue decline of 3% to 5% in 2Q26[43] - Coty expects approximately inline to below the Q4 level of ~3.5x leverage in CY25[43] Strategic Focus & Initiatives - Coty is refocusing on core strengths, particularly fragrances, which already account for over 60% of revenues[46,48] - The company's e-commerce revenues reached $1 billion in FY25[115] - Coty is implementing AI across various functions, including marketing, supply chain, and finance[86,89]

Core Insights - Coty Inc. is expected to report a decline in revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $1.2 billion, reflecting a 12% decrease from the previous year [1] - The earnings consensus has remained stable at two cents per share, indicating a recovery from a loss of three cents in the same quarter last year [2] - Coty's strategic initiatives, including expanding its prestige fragrance portfolio and enhancing digital capabilities, are anticipated to support performance despite challenges [3][4] Revenue and Earnings Performance - The fragrance segment continues to be a key revenue driver for Coty, with management focused on optimizing the cost structure [4] - However, the company faces significant challenges in markets such as China, Travel Retail Asia, and U.S. Consumer Beauty, with expected organic LFL revenue decline of 9.3% for the fourth quarter [5] - Higher advertising and promotional spending, along with currency headwinds, are likely to negatively impact the upcoming quarter's results [5][10] Earnings Predictions - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Coty, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [6] - Comparatively, other companies like Estée Lauder are also expected to see declines in both revenue and earnings, with a consensus revenue estimate of $3.4 billion, down 12.2% year-over-year [8]