Core Insights - JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth has reaffirmed Amazon.com as his "Best Idea" in the U.S. e-commerce sector, citing significant market share gains and strong delivery execution [1] - Amazon's sales growth and expanding Prime ecosystem are outpacing the broader market, positioning the company for long-term dominance [1] E-commerce Growth Projections - Anmuth forecasts U.S. e-commerce growth of 4.6% year-over-year in Q3, 4.4% in Q4, and 6.4% in 2026 [2] - Amazon's U.S. GMV (excluding physical stores) is expected to grow 8% year-over-year in Q3, 9% in Q4, and 8% in 2026 [2] - Long-term, U.S. e-commerce penetration could rise from approximately 23% in 2024 to over 40% [2] Market Performance - U.S. e-commerce sales grew 5.3% year-over-year in Q2, down from 5.6% in Q1, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of market share gains [4] - Amazon's U.S. e-commerce share increased by 202 basis points year-over-year to 46.8% in Q2, with projections of 47.4% in Q3 (+163bps), 49.2% in Q4 (+221bps), and 48.2% in 2026 (+78bps) [4] - Global 1P sales accelerated to 10% foreign-exchange-neutral year-over-year from 6% in Q1, while global 3P sales spiked 10% foreign-exchange-neutral year-over-year from 7% in Q1 [4] - There was a 30% year-over-year growth in U.S. same-day or one-day delivery units [4]