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What Should You Do With Berkshire Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-29 18:21
Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is projected to see an increase in revenues but a decrease in earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with revenues estimated at $98.5 billion, reflecting a 5.2% year-over-year growth, while earnings per share (EPS) are expected to decline by 2.6% to $5.24 [1][2][7]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BRK.B's second-quarter revenues is $98.5 billion, indicating a 5.2% increase from the previous year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $5.24, which shows no change over the past 30 days and represents a year-over-year decrease of 2.6% [2][5]. Earnings Surprise History - Berkshire Hathaway has a mixed earnings surprise history, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 13.39% [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Berkshire Hathaway, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4][5]. Factors Influencing Q2 Results - The insurance operations are expected to benefit from improved pricing, solid retention rates, and increased average premiums, alongside a favorable catastrophe environment aiding underwriting profitability [6][7]. - GEICO is anticipated to see gains from higher premiums, lower claims frequency, and improved operational efficiencies [8]. - Investment income is expected to rise due to higher yields and an expanded asset base [8]. Segment Performance - The utilities and energy segment is projected to perform well, driven by increased earnings from natural gas pipelines and energy operations [9]. - The railroad subsidiary, BNSF, may face challenges from an unfavorable business mix but could benefit from higher unit volumes and lower operating expenses [8]. Valuation and Market Performance - BRK.B's stock is trading at a price-to-book value of 1.58X, slightly above the industry average of 1.53X, and is considered attractively valued compared to other insurers [12][13][14]. - The stock underperformed relative to the industry, sector, and S&P 500 in the second quarter of 2025 [12]. Investment Thesis - The insurance operations are crucial to Berkshire Hathaway's business model, accounting for about 25% of total revenues and serving as a key growth driver [15]. - The insurance float has increased significantly, providing a low-cost capital source for investments in high-quality businesses [17]. - The company's strong financial position supports ongoing share repurchases, contributing to long-term shareholder value [18]. Strategic Considerations - Berkshire Hathaway's diversified portfolio across various industries offers dynamism to shareholders [19]. - However, concerns regarding return on capital, potential declines in earnings, and premium valuation suggest a cautious approach for investors [20].