It's just a bit early to be talking about "what will work in 2026," but I'll offer a preview here. I think it will be a year in which some investors rediscover bonds, and others miss out while licking their AI-stock bubble wounds.I'm Rob Isbitts, founder of Sungarden Investment Publishing. I run the new investing group Sungarden Investors Club, a community dedicated to navigating the modern investment climate with humility, discipline, and a non-traditional approach to income investing. I've been charting i ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record AUM of $2.1 trillion, with net long-term inflows of nearly $29 billion, representing an 8% annualized organic growth, the best flow quarter since 2021 [13][24] - Total AUM increased by $123 billion, or 6%, from the previous quarter, and by $329 billion, or 18%, year-over-year [24] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the third quarter was $0.61, with a significant improvement in operating margin to 34.2% [25][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ETF platform reached a milestone of $1 trillion in AUM, with an annualized organic growth of 15% [14] - Fundamental fixed income garnered over $4 billion in net long-term inflows, with total fixed income inflows reaching nearly $13 billion when including ETFs [16] - The company recorded net outflows of $5 billion in fundamental equities, primarily due to a broader secular outflow trend in actively managed equities [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nearly 40% of long-term AUM is now from clients outside the U.S., with two-thirds of net inflows this quarter coming from EMEA and Asia-Pacific regions [13] - The China joint venture reached a record high AUM of $122 billion, reflecting a 16% increase over the last quarter, with $8.1 billion in net long-term inflows [17] - The company launched 12 new products in its China JV, including its first fixed income ETF, indicating strong demand for innovative products [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital management and has repaid approximately 25% of the term loans used for a $1 billion preferred stock repurchase, enhancing earnings accretion [5][26] - A hybrid investment platform is being implemented, expected to be completed by the end of 2026, aimed at simplifying operations and improving investment performance [7][32] - The company is pursuing growth through partnerships, such as the Barings private markets partnership, which has already launched its first joint product [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted strong momentum in the market, with key indices reaching new highs and increased investor confidence following a Fed rate cut [12] - The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly in fixed income and private markets, despite some volatility in the credit space [56][57] - Management emphasized the importance of investment performance, with over half of funds performing in the top quartile of peers on a three-year basis [23] Other Important Information - The company is in the process of selling a majority interest in its Indian business, expecting cash proceeds of $140 million to $150 million [35] - A non-cash impairment charge of $36 million was recorded related to the sale of intelliflo, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter [33][34] - The effective non-GAAP tax rate for the third quarter was significantly impacted by a favorable resolution of a tax matter, resulting in an effective rate of 11.2% [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on QQQ shareholder vote and marketing expenses - Management is pleased with the progress of the QQQ shareholder vote, noting overwhelming support for the fee change, but cannot disclose specific quorum details [40][41] - The reclassification of marketing expenses does not impact operating income or the proposal's approval likelihood [42] Question: Use of proxy voting firm and expense classification - The proxy solicitation firm's expenses are considered marketing expenses of the fund and are not expected to affect Invesco's operating expenses [45][46] Question: Fixed income flows and market outlook - Management reported strong fixed income performance and organic growth, with no material implications from recent market events [55][56] Question: Details on divestitures and capital return priorities - Proceeds from the India sale are expected to enhance balance sheet flexibility, while the intelliflo sale is anticipated to have negligible impact on overall results [61][63] Question: Expense growth and Alpha platform integration - Implementation costs for the Alpha platform are expected to remain high through 2026, with a focus on managing fixed expenses [67][68] Question: Variable expenses and operating leverage - Variable expenses are expected to fluctuate with revenue, while fixed expenses will be closely managed to drive operating leverage [75][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Invesco reported a record AUM of $2.1 trillion, which is $123 billion or 6% higher than the previous quarter and $329 billion or 18% higher year-over-year [24] - Average long-term AUM increased by 9% sequentially and 16% year-over-year to $1.46 trillion [24] - Net revenues for the third quarter were $1.2 billion, an increase of $82 million compared to the same quarter last year, primarily driven by higher investment management fees [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ETF platform reached a milestone of $1 trillion in AUM, with an annualized organic growth of 15% [14] - Fundamental fixed income garnered over $4 billion in net long-term inflows, with total fixed income inflows reaching nearly $13 billion when including ETFs [16] - The China joint venture achieved a record AUM of $122 billion, reflecting a 16% increase over the last quarter, with net long-term inflows of $8.1 billion [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nearly 40% of long-term AUM is now from clients outside the U.S., with two-thirds of net inflows this quarter coming from AMEA and Asia-Pacific regions [13] - The U.S. wealth management SMA platform reached nearly $34 billion in AUM, with an annualized organic growth rate of 19% [17] - The company experienced strong demand for fixed income products, particularly in Asia, driving net inflows [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Invesco is focused on capital management and has repaid approximately 25% of the term loans used for a $1 billion preferred stock repurchase, enhancing earnings accretion [5] - The company is implementing a hybrid investment platform to streamline operations and improve investment performance, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [7][32] - A significant growth initiative is underway to modernize the QQQ ETF structure, with strong shareholder participation in the proposals [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted strong momentum in the market, with key indices reaching new highs and increased investor confidence following a Fed rate cut [12] - The company is optimistic about future growth opportunities, particularly in private markets and the evolving demand for income-oriented solutions [9] - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing improvements in investment performance, which is crucial for maintaining market share [22] Other Important Information - The sale of IntelliFlow is expected to generate approximately $100 million in net cash, with potential future earnouts of up to $65 million [8] - The company anticipates closing the transaction for a majority interest in its Indian business, expecting cash proceeds of $140 million to $150 million [35] - The effective non-GAAP tax rate for the third quarter was significantly impacted by a favorable resolution of a tax matter, resulting in an 11.2% rate [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on QQQ shareholder vote and marketing expenses - Management is pleased with the progress of the QQQ shareholder vote, noting overwhelming support for the fee change, and clarified that reclassifying marketing expenses does not impact operating income [41][42] Question: Use of proxy voting firm and expense classification - The proxy solicitation firm is considered a marketing expense of the fund, and management does not foresee it affecting Invesco's operating expenses [45][46] Question: Fixed income flows and market outlook - Management reported continued strength in fixed income flows, with over $30 billion in platform-wide fixed income flows, and noted some softening in bank loan flows [55][56] Question: Details on divestitures and capital return priorities - Proceeds from the sale of the Indian business and IntelliFlow will enhance balance sheet flexibility, with a focus on returning 60% of capital to shareholders [62][63] Question: Expense growth and Alpha platform integration - Management expects implementation costs for the Alpha platform to remain high through 2026, with a focus on managing fixed expenses effectively [68][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record AUM of $2.1 trillion, reflecting a $123 billion increase or 6% from the previous quarter and a $329 billion increase or 18% year-over-year [24] - Average long-term AUM rose to $1.46 trillion, a 9% increase from the last quarter and a 16% increase from the same quarter last year [24] - Net revenues for the third quarter reached $1.2 billion, an increase of $82 million compared to the same quarter last year, primarily driven by higher investment management fees [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong net long-term inflows of nearly $29 billion, marking an 8% annualized organic growth, the best flow quarter since 2021 [12] - In the ETF and indexed offerings, the company reached $1 trillion in AUM, with an annualized organic growth of 15% [13] - Fundamental fixed income saw over $4 billion in net long-term inflows, while total fixed income inflows across all products reached nearly $13 billion [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nearly 40% of long-term AUM now comes from clients outside the U.S., with two-thirds of net inflows this quarter from AMEA and Asia-Pacific regions [12] - The China joint venture reached a record high AUM of $122 billion, reflecting a 16% increase over the last quarter, with $7.3 billion of net long-term inflows [16] - The company experienced a significant increase in demand for fixed income products, particularly in Asia, with strong institutional interest in investment-grade bonds [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital management and has repaid approximately 25% of the term loans used for a $1 billion preferred stock repurchase, enhancing earnings accretion [4] - A hybrid investment platform is being implemented, expected to be completed by the end of 2026, aimed at simplifying operations and improving investment performance [5][6] - The company is pursuing growth through partnerships, such as the Barings Private Markets partnership, and is in the final stages of selling a majority interest in its Indian business [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted strong momentum in the market, with key indices reaching new highs and increased investor confidence following a Fed rate cut [11] - The company is optimistic about future growth opportunities, particularly in private markets and fixed income, as it continues to innovate and meet client demand [19][20] - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing initiatives to enhance investment performance and reduce redemption rates in fundamental equities [22] Other Important Information - The company recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $36 million related to the sale of IntelliFlow, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter [33] - The effective non-GAAP tax rate for the third quarter was significantly impacted by a favorable resolution of a tax matter, resulting in an 11.2% effective tax rate [34] - The company plans to continue common share repurchases, with a total payout ratio expected to be near 60% this year [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on QQQ shareholder vote and marketing expenses - Management indicated strong participation and momentum in favor of the fee change proposals, but could not disclose specific quorum details [41][42] - The reclassification of marketing expenses does not impact operating income or the proposal's approval likelihood [43] Question: Clarification on proxy voting expenses - Proxy solicitation expenses are considered marketing expenses of the fund and are not expected to affect Invesco's operating expenses [45][46] Question: Insights on fixed income flows and future expectations - The company has seen strong fixed income performance and expects continued strength, despite some recent volatility [51][52] Question: Details on divestitures and capital return priorities - Proceeds from the sale of the Indian business are expected to be $140 to $150 million, with negligible impact on overall operating results [57][58] - The company remains focused on improving its balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders while investing in growth [59] Question: Future expense growth related to the Alpha platform - Implementation costs for the Alpha platform are expected to remain high through 2026, with a focus on managing fixed expenses [63][64] Question: Variable expenses outlook for 2026 and 2027 - Variable expenses are expected to fluctuate with revenue, while fixed expenses will be closely managed to drive operating leverage [70][71]

Core Insights - Multiple Bitcoin mining stocks experienced significant gains despite a market downturn triggered by President Trump's tariff announcement on China [1][2] Company Performance - HIVE (Nasdaq: HIVE) led the week with a 40% return from Monday open to Friday close [2] - BitFarms (Nasdaq: BITF) followed with a 31% return [2] - IREN (Nasdaq: IREN) shares nearly doubled, opening at $30.68 on September 10 and closing just under $60 on October 10 [3] Market Trends - The average one-month return for Bitcoin miners was 73.26% [3] - Despite the gains in Bitcoin mining stocks, broader asset classes faced declines, with BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF down 3.7%, and SPY and QQQ ETFs down 2.7% and 3.5%, respectively [2][4]

Market Overview - The fourth quarter of 2025 is approaching with potential market instability due to geopolitical conflicts, weakening employment numbers, and recession signs [1] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at 15.2, down 15% year to date, indicating low investor concern, but this can change rapidly [2] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to seek safety during volatile markets while also considering potential upside opportunities [3] - The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) is highlighted as an interesting investment option amid market uncertainties [3] Invesco QQQ Trust Overview - The Invesco QQQ Trust is a passively managed index fund tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index, which includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq [4] - The fund's heavy allocation in technology stocks (60.8%) allows investors to avoid financial stocks that typically underperform in downturns [5] Fund Composition - The QQQ ETF is weighted by market capitalization, with the top 10 stocks comprising 52.77% of the fund [6] - Major holdings include Nvidia (9.24%), Microsoft (8.36%), Apple (8.12%), and others, indicating a strong focus on growth rather than income [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The QQQ ETF is experiencing a strong rally, potentially continuing due to Oracle's strong financial results [1] Group 1: QQQ ETF Performance - The QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, was trading at $580, indicating a significant increase [1]

Core Insights - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite are key stock market indexes that reflect the performance of the U.S. stock market, with varying degrees of gains and losses depending on market conditions and economic state [1][2]. Index Characteristics - The S&P 500 includes approximately 500 of the largest U.S. stocks, weighted by market capitalization, providing a broad market performance view [2]. - The Nasdaq comprises over 3,000 stocks, heavily focused on the technology sector, making it a benchmark for technology and growth companies [2]. - The Dow consists of 30 blue-chip stocks, weighted by stock prices, offering a more conservative representation of the market [2]. Historical Performance - Since their peaks in 2000, the performance changes of the indexes are as follows: Dow increased by 288.5% nominally and 105.6% in real terms; S&P 500 rose by 322.9% nominally and 123.8% in real terms; Nasdaq grew by 325.0% nominally and 124.9% in real terms [4]. - As of August 29, 2025, the month-over-month changes were: S&P 500 up 1.9%, Dow up 3.2%, and Nasdaq up 1.6% [4]. - Adjusted for inflation, the real month-over-month changes were 1.8% for S&P 500, 3.0% for Dow, and 1.4% for Nasdaq [6]. Long-term Growth - Over the last 10 years, each index has shown significant growth in real terms: S&P 500 up 124%, Dow up 106%, and Nasdaq up 125% [8]. ETF Performance - The SPY ETF, tracking the S&P 500, shows a current real purchasing power of $3,499 from an initial investment of $1,000 at its March 2000 peak, reflecting a real compounded annual return of 5.05% [13]. - The DIA ETF, tracking the Dow, has a current real purchasing power of $3,515 from the same initial investment, with a real compounded annual return of 5.03% [14]. - The QQQ ETF, tracking the Nasdaq-100, has a current real purchasing power of $3,113 from the initial investment, yielding a real compounded annual return of 4.56% [16].

Group 1: Market Overview - Hong Kong is experiencing a resurgence as a global financial hub, attracting significant foreign capital inflows, particularly from international asset management firms and hedge funds [1][3][14] - The Hang Seng Index has increased by over 26% this year, ranking among the top globally, with 44 new companies listed in the first half of the year, raising a total of HKD 109.4 billion, which is more than eight times the amount raised in the same period of 2024 [1][2] Group 2: Office Leasing Trends - The demand for premium office space in Central Hong Kong is recovering, with the rental rates for super-prime office buildings nearing saturation, reaching historical highs [4][8] - Point72 Asset Management has leased approximately 55,000 square feet in The Henderson at a rental rate of about HKD 120 per square foot, while Jane Street has signed a lease for 220,000 square feet at a rate of HKD 137 per square foot, representing a 50% premium over current average rents [5][12] - The overall vacancy rate for super-prime office buildings has significantly decreased, with the International Finance Centre (IFC) achieving an occupancy rate of over 95% [13] Group 3: Investment and Recruitment Trends - Foreign investment institutions are increasingly focusing on Chinese assets, with a consensus emerging among foreign financial institutions to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks [15][17] - Major foreign financial firms, including BlackRock and Morgan Stanley, are ramping up recruitment efforts in Hong Kong, indicating a strong demand for talent in the financial sector [18][19] - The influx of foreign talent is also evident, with many professionals seeking to establish long-term careers in Hong Kong, driven by the city's status as a gateway to the Chinese market [20]

Group 1: Market Overview - Hong Kong is experiencing a resurgence as a global financial hub, attracting significant foreign capital inflows, particularly from asset management firms and hedge funds [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index has increased by over 26% this year, ranking among the top globally, with 44 new companies listed in the first half of the year, raising a total of HKD 109.4 billion, which is more than eight times the amount raised in the same period of 2024 [1][2] Group 2: Office Rental Market - The demand for premium office space in Central Hong Kong is recovering, with the International Finance Centre (IFC) reaching historical high occupancy rates [2][6] - Point72 Asset Management has leased approximately 55,000 square feet in The Henderson at a rental rate of about HKD 120 per square foot, indicating a strong demand for office space [2][4] - Jane Street has signed a lease for 220,000 square feet in Central, with a monthly rent exceeding HKD 30 million, reflecting a 50% premium over current average rents [4][6] Group 3: Investment Trends - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the first half of 2025 was HKD 240.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 118% [2][11] - Foreign investment institutions are increasingly focusing on Chinese assets, with a consensus emerging among global funds to increase their exposure to the Chinese stock market [12][14] Group 4: Talent Acquisition - Major foreign financial institutions are ramping up recruitment efforts in Hong Kong, with firms like BlackRock and Morgan Stanley opening positions for 2026 internships and full-time roles [15][16] - The demand for talent in the financial sector is surging, with many firms actively seeking to fill positions across various categories, including investment banking and asset management [17][18]