Quantum stocks, including IonQ (IONQ), have sunk sharply in recent days as a number of factors, including disappointment in Microsoft's (MSFT) quarterly results, have made the Street averse to high-risk stocks in general and high-risk tech names in particular.IONQ has a great deal of potential. But because the decline of high-risk tech names looks poised to continue in the short term and quantum computing is still in its early stages, I would not advise investors to buy IONQ stock at this point.Also making ...

Core Insights - IonQ has established itself in the quantum computing sector by developing one of the most accurate systems, achieving 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity [1] - The company is pursuing vertical integration to enhance scalability and control over the quantum ecosystem through strategic acquisitions [2] Company Strategy - IonQ has made significant acquisitions, including Oxford Ionics for reducing quantum computer size, LightSynq for photonic interconnect technology, Capella for satellite-based distribution, and Vector Atomic for quantum sensing technology [4] - The latest acquisition of SkyWater Technology allows IonQ to manufacture its own chips, making it the only vertically integrated quantum computing company [5] Industry Context - Most semiconductor companies operate on a fabless model, relying on third-party foundries, but vertical integration is advantageous in the emerging quantum computing field [6] - With SkyWater's fabs located in the U.S. and its trusted status with the government, IonQ is positioned to secure government contracts in quantum computing, which is a promising revenue source [8]

Industry Overview - Quantum computing is an emerging technology with the potential to perform computations beyond the capabilities of conventional supercomputers, potentially leading to breakthroughs across various industries [1] - The quantum computing market is projected to reach an annual value of $100 billion by 2035, according to research from McKinsey & Company [5] Company Analysis: D-Wave Quantum - D-Wave Quantum has experienced significant volatility in its stock price, ranging from $4 to $46 over the past year, and is currently trading in the middle of that range [2][3] - The company employs a unique approach called quantum annealing, which focuses on finding solutions that are close to optimal rather than perfectly optimal, making it suitable for complex real-world problems [6] - D-Wave Quantum is expanding its capabilities by acquiring a rival that develops gate-model quantum computing systems, aiming to develop both quantum annealing and gate-model systems concurrently to capture a larger market share [7] Financial Performance - D-Wave Quantum's financial outlook is modest, with Wall Street analysts expecting revenues of just under $40 million in 2025 and approximately $78 million in 2026 [8]

This story was originally published on Manufacturing Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Manufacturing Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: IonQ on Monday said it will buy SkyWater Technology for $1.8 billion, accelerating its ability to develop and scale production of quantum computing goods and services for aerospace and defense customers. The combination will add semiconductor foundry capabilities to IonQ, positioning itself as a major vertically-integrated, full-stack quantu ...

Group 1: Rigetti Computing - Rigetti Computing's current market capitalization is $7.7 billion, with a current stock price of $23.45, reflecting a daily change of -6.05% [2][5] - The company reported $5.2 million in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, which is a 39% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [3][4] - Rigetti announced two sales in October 2025 that are expected to generate $5.7 million in revenue, but this revenue will not be recognized until the first half of 2026 [4][5] - Analysts predict that Rigetti will miss revenue forecasts of $7.6 million for Q4 2025 and will likely not achieve a reduction in net losses as expected [5] Group 2: D-Wave Quantum - D-Wave Quantum has a market capitalization of $9.0 billion and a current stock price of $25.63, with a daily change of -6.56% [6][10] - The company reported less than $22 million in revenue through the first three quarters of 2025, despite a more than three-fold increase in sales compared to previous years [7][8] - Analysts estimate that D-Wave will end 2025 with total revenue below $26 million and no profit, raising concerns about its high market capitalization [9][10] - The stock is viewed as driven more by hype than by substantial earnings, with expectations of profitability not forecasted before 2030 [10]

Core Insights - The first-mover advantage for pure-play quantum computing stocks may be more precarious than investors realize, with significant risks associated with this emerging technology [1] - Quantum computing stocks have seen dramatic gains, with IonQ up 670% and Rigetti Computing soaring over 6,200% over the trailing 12 months as of mid-October 2025, indicating the long-term potential of quantum computers [2] - Despite the excitement, quantum computing faces monumental headwinds that could disrupt the current rally for stocks like IonQ and Rigetti [3] Market Opportunity - Quantum computing is viewed as a $450 billion to $850 billion addressable opportunity by 2040, with The Quantum Insider projecting a global value of $1 trillion by 2035 [5] - The technology can be applied in various fields, including drug development, cybersecurity, AI algorithm enhancement, and weather modeling [6][7] - Significant future investments are anticipated, exemplified by JPMorgan Chase's $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative, which includes quantum computing [6] Adoption and Competition - Early-stage adoption of quantum computing is being observed among major companies like Amazon and Microsoft, which offer access to quantum computers through their cloud services [8] - However, quantum computing has not yet achieved broad-based commercialization, and current players like IonQ and Rigetti are still years away from solving practical problems more cost-effectively than classical computers [11] - The barrier to entry in quantum computing is minimal, posing a risk to early-stage innovators [12] Competitive Landscape - Companies like Alphabet and Microsoft are making significant advancements in quantum computing, with Alphabet's Willow quantum processing unit achieving a quantum algorithm performance approximately 13,000 times faster than the fastest supercomputer [14] - Alphabet has substantial financial resources, with $98.5 billion in cash and marketable securities, allowing aggressive investment in quantum computing initiatives [15] - Microsoft also has a strong financial position and has introduced its Majorana 1 QPU, which can scale to 1 million qubits [17] Sustainability Concerns - IonQ and Rigetti have not yet demonstrated sustainable operating models or sufficient cash flow to achieve recurring profitability, raising concerns about their long-term viability [18] - The competitive landscape suggests that larger companies could easily overshadow IonQ and Rigetti, making their current high valuations risky [18]

Core Insights - Quantum computing is emerging as a significant area of potential innovation, with shares of companies like D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and IonQ experiencing quadruple-digit growth over the past three years as investors seek opportunities in this sector [1][6]. Group 1: Technology Overview - Quantum computing leverages the behavior of subatomic particles, known as qubits, to perform calculations that classical computers cannot handle, but the technology faces challenges such as error generation and the fragility of qubits [4]. - Current pure play quantum companies are generating revenue by offering access to their quantum hardware through cloud services, while major tech firms like Microsoft and Alphabet are also developing quantum chips [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Industry leaders have varying predictions on the timeline for quantum computing to become generally useful, with Nvidia's Jensen Huang suggesting a 20-year timeframe, while Alphabet's Sundar Pichai estimates a 5 to 10-year horizon [6]. - Despite the complexities, the market sentiment remains bullish, with significant stock price increases indicating investor confidence in quantum computing as the next major growth area [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Quantum computing is poised to become a significant market in the coming decades, with potential advancements across various sectors, but the uncertainty surrounding which companies will dominate remains high [2][7]. Industry Overview - The quantum computing industry is highly competitive, with numerous companies pursuing different technological approaches, leading to a crowded market where not all players may succeed [3]. - Major tech companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and IBM have substantial resources to invest in quantum computing, contrasting sharply with smaller firms like IonQ, which face financial challenges [5]. Company Analysis - IonQ is a pure play in quantum computing, presenting a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity, but it currently has limited revenue and relies on equity sales and research contracts for funding [4][10]. - Despite IonQ's advancements in quantum computing accuracy, its error rates are still too high for commercial viability, indicating that the company has significant hurdles to overcome [8][10]. - The potential market for quantum computing is projected to reach between $28 billion and $72 billion by 2035, but the wide range of estimates reflects the uncertainty in the industry's future [7]. Investment Considerations - Investors in IonQ must be prepared for a long-term commitment, as the company may take a decade to realize its potential, and the risks associated with holding its stock are considerable [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The quantum computing sector, represented by companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc., is facing significant challenges, including ongoing operating losses, cash burn, and unsustainable price-to-sales ratios, indicating a potential bubble in the market [1][3][20]. Quantum Computing Industry - Most analysts believe that quantum computing will take years to solve practical problems more efficiently than classical computers, and further time will be needed for businesses to optimize these technologies for sales and profit [2]. - Despite a remarkable rally of up to 3,080% for quantum computing stocks since October 2024, these companies are still in the early stages of commercializing their products and services [3]. - The arrival of quantum computing is seen as a major trend in 2025, with specialized computers capable of solving complex problems that classical computers cannot handle [4]. Stock Market Trends - The S&P 500 has shown strong performance, climbing by 16% in 2025, marking three consecutive years of gains of 15% or more, a rare occurrence in nearly a century [6][7]. - However, there are growing concerns about historical headwinds that could impact future performance, with predictions that 2026 may be viewed as the "Year of the Bubble" due to multiple potential bubbles in the market [5][20]. Artificial Intelligence Sector - In contrast to quantum computing, the AI sector, led by companies like Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, is experiencing rapid sales growth, indicating a more advanced stage of maturation [8]. - Nvidia's market cap has increased by over $4.1 trillion since early 2023, while Palantir's shares have surged approximately 2,650% [8]. - Despite robust sales of AI hardware, many businesses are still far from optimizing this technology, suggesting a pattern of overestimation in the adoption and utilization of new technologies [9]. Valuation Concerns - The overall stock market is currently considered historically expensive, with the S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio at 40.66 as of January 8, 2026, making it the second priciest in history [17][18]. - Historical data shows that high Shiller P/E ratios have often preceded significant market declines, indicating that extended valuations may not be sustainable [19].

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks, including IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc., are experiencing significant hype and price increases, but historical trends suggest a potential bubble burst in the near future [3][6][22] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The quantum computing sector is projected to contribute up to $850 billion to global GDP by 2040, creating a substantial addressable market that has driven stock prices up dramatically [4][6] - Since October 1, 2024, the stock prices of IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have surged by 521%, 3,270%, 3,290%, and 1,790% respectively, indicating extreme investor enthusiasm [5][6] Group 2: Financial Considerations - Early-stage quantum computing companies are expected to face operating losses and cash burn, leading to share-based dilution as a common practice for raising capital [7][9] - IonQ raised $2 billion through a stock offering, selling shares at $93, which has since decreased to $50.76, highlighting the risks of dilution for existing investors [8] Group 3: Valuation Challenges - Traditional valuation metrics are difficult to apply to early-stage companies with no earnings, but the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio can provide insights; historical data shows that P/S ratios above 30 are unsustainable [11][12] - Current P/S ratios for leading quantum computing stocks indicate they remain in bubble territory, suggesting potential for significant price corrections [13] Group 4: Market Environment - The overall stock market is currently at a high valuation, with the S&P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio nearing 41, which historically signals potential downturns for high-priced stocks [15][16] - Volatility in the market tends to disproportionately affect the most expensive stocks, which could include quantum computing companies that have not yet proven their business models [17] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The barrier to entry in the quantum computing industry is lower than perceived, with established tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft developing their own quantum technologies, posing a threat to current players [18][21] - The first-mover advantage held by current quantum computing companies may be eroded as larger firms with more capital and resources enter the market [20][21]