Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive's stock has declined following a report of quarterly deliveries and a reduction in its full-year outlook, as the market reassesses demand dynamics influenced by tax-credit changes [1][2] Delivery and Production Performance - Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles in Q3, representing a 32% increase year-over-year and surpassing analyst expectations, while production was lower at 10,720 units [4] - The company has narrowed its 2025 delivery guidance to a range of 41,500 to 43,500 units, indicating a belief that the previous high-end target is no longer achievable despite a strong Q3 performance [5] Market Dynamics and Guidance Changes - The expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles on October 1 has removed a significant demand driver, contributing to uncertainty in demand and costs for the remainder of the year [6] - Rivian's management has indicated a relatively light fourth quarter compared to last year's 14,183 deliveries, reflecting the impact of changing market conditions [5][6] Financial Outlook - The company is working towards sustained profitability, having achieved its first positive gross profit in Q4 2024, with a noted reduction of $31,000 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle delivered compared to Q4 2023 [7] - Management has guided for "modest" gross profit in 2025, setting expectations for future financial performance [7] Stock Valuation - Following the recent stock decline, Rivian's valuation appears more reasonable, suggesting a reassessment of its growth potential in light of the latest developments [8]

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive's future depends on scaling R2 production while managing widening losses, which are testing investor patience [1][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Rivian reported revenue of approximately $1.3 billion, an increase from about $1.2 billion year-over-year, but gross profit returned to a loss due to decreased production and rising costs [4]. - The company produced 5,979 vehicles and delivered 10,661, with output limited by supply chain complexities [4]. - Rivian maintained its full-year delivery guidance at 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles but widened its 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss outlook to between $2 billion and $2.25 billion [5]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - Management is targeting cost reductions while preparing for the next wave of vehicles, with a notable improvement in the balance sheet following a $1 billion equity investment from Volkswagen [6]. - Rivian has begun installing manufacturing equipment for the new R2 vehicle, which is crucial for future production [7]. - The R2 vehicle is expected to launch on time, with plans to increase annual production capacity to approximately 215,000 units [9]. Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - Rivian's stock is currently priced for substantial profitability, despite the company being far from achieving it [8]. - The investment case relies heavily on the successful execution of the R2 launch and the ability to manage cash burn while investing in product and manufacturing [10]. - The company has a compelling product and strategic support from Volkswagen, but the investment outlook is contingent on developments in 2026 and 2027 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Rivian and Lucid, once popular EV stocks, have seen significant declines in their stock prices due to unmet production goals and rising interest rates, leading to questions about their future investment potential [2][4][12] Company Performance - Rivian's stock price has dropped to approximately $13 from a peak of $172.01, while Lucid's stock is now around $3, down from a high of $55.52 [1][2] - Rivian produced 24,337 vehicles in 2022, significantly below its target of 50,000, due to supply chain disruptions [4][8] - Lucid delivered only 4,369 vehicles in 2022, far short of its goal of 20,000, also facing supply chain issues [5][10] - In 2023, Rivian increased production to 57,232 vehicles but saw a decline to 49,476 in 2024 due to market conditions and competition [8][9] - Lucid's deliveries rose to 6,001 in 2023 and 10,241 in 2024, but these figures remain disappointing compared to initial projections [10][11] Market Valuation - At their peak, Rivian's market cap was $153.3 billion, equating to 92 times its 2022 revenue, while Lucid's market cap reached $91.4 billion, or 150 times its 2022 revenue [6] - Rivian and Lucid currently trade at 3.2 times and 6.9 times this year's sales, respectively, with neither expected to break even soon [12] Future Outlook - Analysts project Rivian's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 32% from 2024 to 2027, while Lucid's revenue is expected to rise at a CAGR of 85% [12] - Rivian's gross margins have turned positive, indicating improved financial health, whereas Lucid's gross margins remain negative [12][13] - Rivian's leadership stability and production capabilities position it as a stronger investment compared to Lucid, which faces challenges in meeting production expectations for its Gravity SUV [13]

Group 1 - The 2018 Los Angeles Auto Show marked the public debut of Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s R1T pickup and R1S SUV, highlighting the company's entry into the electric vehicle market [1] - The event attracted numerous analysts and journalists, indicating significant industry interest in Rivian's offerings [1] Group 2 - The author of the article is a journalist with extensive experience in the automotive industry, having contributed to major publications such as The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rivian and Lucid, once leading electric vehicle stocks, have significantly declined in value due to production challenges and financial losses, raising questions about their potential for recovery and investment viability [1][2]. Rivian Overview - Rivian offers three electric vehicle models: R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and an electric delivery van for Amazon [4]. - The company aimed to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2022 but only managed 24,337 due to supply chain issues, with production increasing to 57,232 in 2023 but dropping to 49,476 in 2024 [4][5]. - Rivian anticipates producing 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles in 2025, facing challenges such as higher tariffs and supply chain disruptions [6]. - Analysts project a 5% revenue increase to $5.24 billion in 2025, with expectations of narrowing net losses from $4.75 billion in 2024 to $3.38 billion in 2025 [7][8]. - Revenue is expected to surge 41% to $7.37 billion in 2026, contingent on the successful launch of the R2 SUV [9]. Lucid Overview - Lucid currently sells the Air sedan and the Gravity SUV, which launched in late 2024 after delays [10]. - The company significantly underperformed its delivery targets, with actual deliveries of 4,369 in 2022, 6,001 in 2023, and 10,241 in 2024 [11]. - For 2025, Lucid expects to produce about 20,000 vehicles, more than double its 2024 output, with revenue projected to rise 73% to $1.4 billion [12][13]. - Analysts forecast Lucid's revenue to nearly double to $2.73 billion in 2026, but the company still faces challenges with negative gross margins and a crowded luxury SUV market [14]. Investment Comparison - Rivian is viewed as a more attractive investment due to faster production ramp-up, lower losses per vehicle, and a cheaper stock valuation compared to Lucid [15].

Industry Overview - The auto industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous vehicles (AVs) [2][4] - Global EV sales are projected to grow by 19.2% in 2025, reaching 21.3 million units, with China leading the market [2] - By 2030, EVs are expected to account for over 40% of global light vehicle sales, increasing to more than 80% by 2040 [2] Electric Vehicle Market - Tesla was historically the dominant player in the EV market, but competition is intensifying with traditional automakers and new startups entering the space [3] - Companies like General Motors, Rivian, BYD, and NIO are making significant investments and launching ambitious product plans to capture market share [3] Autonomous Vehicle Market - The AV market is anticipated to grow from nearly $48 billion in 2025 to over $133 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in technology [4] - Major tech companies and automakers are investing heavily in AV technology to enhance road safety and reduce traffic congestion [4] Investment Opportunities - The dual transformation of electrification and automation presents substantial investment opportunities in the EV and AV sectors [5] - Investors are encouraged to consider stocks like BYD, Rivian, and NIO for potential growth [5] Rivian Automotive - Rivian is transitioning from high-end models to more affordable vehicles, with the upcoming R2 mid-size SUV expected to start around $45,000 [8] - The company has reported a positive gross profit for two consecutive quarters and aims for sustained profitability [8] - Rivian's partnership with Volkswagen involves an investment of up to $5.8 billion, supporting its next-generation electrical architecture [9] NIO Inc. - NIO has expanded its vehicle lineup and is launching new brands, including ONVO and Firefly, to capture a broader market [12][14] - The company is focusing on battery swap technology, with over 3,200 stations deployed, and aims to break even by Q4 2025 [15][16] BYD Company - BYD has shifted entirely to new energy vehicles, emerging as a global EV leader and outselling Tesla in early 2025 [17][18] - The company benefits from vertical integration, controlling production from batteries to vehicle assembly, which helps maintain low costs [19] - BYD is expanding its global footprint with new plants and aims to double overseas sales to over 800,000 units in 2025 [21]

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing turbulence, particularly affecting Tesla, which has seen a 40% drop in shares this year. This situation may create opportunities for smaller EV manufacturers like Rivian, Nio, and Polestar to gain market share and investor interest [2]. Rivian - Rivian's vehicle deliveries surged by 147% to 50,122 in 2023 but are projected to rise only 3% to 51,759 in 2024 due to supply chain constraints and competition [3][4]. - For 2025, Rivian aims to deliver between 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles as it faces additional plant shutdowns and component shortages [4]. - Despite a challenging outlook, Rivian's gross margin improved from negative 188% in 2022 to negative 24% in 2024, with expectations of a modest gross profit in 2025 driven by lower manufacturing costs and higher-margin software sales [5]. - Rivian's enterprise value is $12.6 billion, trading at 2.3 times this year's sales, which is significantly lower than Tesla's 6.9 times [6]. Nio - Nio's deliveries grew by 39% to 221,970 vehicles in 2024, recovering from a slowdown attributed to supply chain issues and competition [8]. - The company launched the lower-end Onvo L60, priced at $20,500, which resembles Tesla's Model Y, contributing to its market share growth [8]. - Nio's annual vehicle margin improved from 9.5% in 2023 to 12.3% in 2024, aided by a higher mix of premium vehicle sales [8]. - Nio has an enterprise value of $8.9 billion, trading at 0.7 times this year's sales, indicating a potentially attractive investment opportunity [9]. Polestar - Polestar's deliveries increased by 6% in 2023 after an 80% surge in 2022, facing delays in launching the Polestar 3 due to software issues [11]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline in the "mid-teens" for 2024, impacted by slower sales in a challenging market [11]. - Polestar is offering "Trade in Your Tesla" deals of up to $20,000, which may attract customers as Tesla's brand perception declines [12]. - Analysts project Polestar's revenue to more than double in 2025 with the launch of the Polestar 5 and expansion of manufacturing facilities [13]. - Polestar's enterprise value is $4.6 billion, trading at 1.0 times its projected sales for 2025, suggesting significant upside potential if operational issues are resolved [13].

Core Insights - Nio and Rivian, once leading electric vehicle stocks, have seen significant declines in their stock prices due to lower vehicle deliveries and substantial losses [2][14] - Nio is experiencing a recovery in its business with increasing deliveries and expanding vehicle margins, while Rivian is facing challenges with production and supply chain issues [2][8] Nio Overview - Nio's vehicle deliveries have grown significantly from 20,565 in 2019 to an expected 221,970 in 2024, with a peak growth rate of 113% in 2020 [4] - The company has faced challenges in 2022 and 2023, including supply chain issues and competition, leading to a decline in vehicle margins from 20.1% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2023 [3][4] - Nio's recent product launches, including the lower-end Onvo L60 and the Firefly hatchback, are expected to drive future growth [6][4] - Analysts project Nio's revenue to increase by 38% in 2025 and 32% in 2026, despite remaining unprofitable [7] Rivian Overview - Rivian's vehicle deliveries increased from 920 in 2021 to 50,122 in 2023, but growth is expected to stall in 2024 due to production shutdowns for upgrades [10] - The company has struggled with negative gross margins, which improved from -845.5% in 2021 to -24.1% in 2024, but profitability is still not expected soon [10][12] - Rivian anticipates delivering between 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles in 2025, with the launch of the R2 SUV planned for 2026 [11] - Analysts expect Rivian's revenue growth to be modest at 8% in 2025, with a potential increase of 40% in 2026 [13] Investment Comparison - Nio is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its higher vehicle deliveries, clearer future plans, and lower valuations compared to Rivian [14] - Rivian's future performance is uncertain, particularly with the upcoming R2 launch, making it a riskier investment at this time [14]