Key Points Investors love Rivian lately, and it's in a better state than Lucid. But both EV stocks are burning cash fast. Tesla suffers from negative PR, but it's one of the only profitable, cash-generative EV stocks in the world. 10 stocks we like better than Lucid Group › Are you ready for a bold prediction (that's really patently obvious)? OK then, here goes: Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) and even more so Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) are both going to zero. And now, I'll tell you why. Image s ...

Rivian grew sales nicely in Q3, but growing sales in 2026 could be harder -- even with a new electric SUV to sell.For the second day in a row, shares of Rivian Automotive (RIVN +8.41%) stock climbed higher Friday -- up 10.5% through 2:20 p.m. ET -- and for the same reason as yesterday:A Wall Street analyst is raising its price target on Rivian. Why Wall Street loves RivianYesterday, Baird analyst Ben Kallo raised his price target on Rivian stock from $14 to $25. Kallo cited Rivian's upcoming introduction of ...

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive's stock has experienced significant volatility, losing 81% of its valuation since its IPO in late 2021, while the S&P 500 has gained 47% during the same period [1][7] - In 2025, Rivian's stock has outperformed the S&P 500, with returns exceeding 32% compared to 14.2% for the index [3] - Rivian reported a 78% year-over-year sales growth in its third-quarter earnings, selling 13,201 trucks despite producing only 10,720, indicating effective inventory management [4][5] Financial Performance - Rivian incurred a loss of $1.2 billion in the last quarter, with negative free cash flow of $421 million, despite benefiting from federal tax incentives [5] - The company aims to launch its new R2 electric SUV in early 2026, with a new paint shop expected to have an annual capacity of 215,000 units, significantly higher than the projected sales of 42,500 units for the current year [6] Market Position - Rivian has underperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 130 percentage points since its IPO, but has shown strong performance this year [7] - The exit of Ford from the electric truck market may provide Rivian with an unexpected advantage, although it raises questions about the viability of the electric truck segment [8]

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive's stock experienced a boost after strong Q3 results, but market enthusiasm has since declined due to concerns about the sustainability of sales growth [1][8] Financial Performance - Rivian reported a 78% year-over-year increase in revenue for Q3, totaling $1.56 billion, but also incurred a net loss of $1.17 billion, or approximately $0.96 per share [3] - The company achieved a positive gross profit of $24 million in Q3, marking a profitability milestone, although maintaining this in Q4 may be challenging [3] Market Dynamics - The EV industry saw a temporary sales boost due to the U.S. federal tax credit expiration on October 1, leading to a pull-forward of purchases [4] - Rivian's gross margin improvement was also aided by technology licensing revenue from its partnership with Volkswagen [5] Investment Considerations - Rivian's market capitalization of $18.2 billion is heavily influenced by market sentiment regarding its future prospects, indicating potential volatility in stock prices [5] - For long-term investors, there may be an opportunity to buy at a lower price as the debut of Rivian's lower-priced R2 electric SUV is still months away [6]

Core Viewpoint - Rivian faces significant challenges in its second quarter, including sluggish sales and the impact of tariffs on imported auto parts, alongside a critical setback related to the loss of revenue from zero-emission credits [1][10]. Q2 Financial Performance - Rivian's second-quarter revenue increased by 13% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, with a net loss of $1.1 billion, an improvement from the previous year's loss of $1.5 billion [2]. - The adjusted earnings per share were reported at a loss of $0.97, which was worse than analysts' expectations of a loss of $0.80 per share [2]. - The company reaffirmed its delivery guidance for 2025, expecting to deliver between 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles, although a strong performance in the second half of the year is necessary to meet this target [2]. Gross Loss and EBITDA Forecast - Rivian's gross loss for the second quarter was $206 million, an improvement from the prior year's loss of $451 million, but still disappointing as investors hoped for gross-profit positivity for the full year [3]. - The adjusted EBITDA loss forecast for the full year was lowered to between $2 billion and $2.5 billion, compared to the previous forecast of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion [3]. Zero-Emission Credits Revenue - Rivian generates a significant portion of its revenue from selling zero-emission credits, which are crucial for young electric vehicle manufacturers [5][10]. - The removal of the emissions penalty by the administration has eliminated the incentive for automakers to purchase these credits, leading to a projected revenue drop from $300 million to approximately $160 million for 2025 [9][10]. - This loss of revenue from zero-emission credits is a major setback for Rivian, potentially impacting its ability to achieve gross profits in 2025 [10]. Future Outlook - Despite the setback from lost revenue, Rivian's future largely depends on the success of its upcoming R2 electric SUV, with production expected to begin in the first half of 2026 [11]. - If the R2 is successful, it may mitigate concerns over lost revenue and profits from zero-emission credits [11].