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Is NVIDIA a Buy Amid Expectations of China Sales Resumption?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-16 14:51
Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corp. is optimistic about resuming sales of H20 AI chips to China, which could significantly impact its revenue and stock price [1][8]. Sales and Revenue Impact - NVIDIA lost $2.5 billion in revenues in China in Q1 fiscal 2026 and anticipates an $8 billion revenue loss from China in Q2 fiscal 2026 [3]. - The resumption of sales in China could potentially bring back $10 to $20 billion in revenues for the remainder of fiscal 2026, translating to an EPS increase of 25 to 50 cents [4][21]. Stock Performance - NVIDIA's stock price increased by 4% following the announcement regarding H20 chip sales to China [1][8]. - The stock has surged nearly 97% since its recent low in early April, with a year-over-year gain of over 26% [5]. Innovation and Product Development - NVIDIA is committed to innovation, with plans to unveil Blackwell Ultra in the second half of 2025 and begin shipping Vera Rubin in 2026 [9]. - The company is shifting focus towards reasoning AI models, which require significantly more compute power, presenting new growth opportunities [11][12]. Automotive Sector Growth - NVIDIA's automotive revenue jumped 72% year-over-year to $567 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, with expectations to exceed $5 billion in fiscal 2026 [14]. - The company is actively involved in providing AI solutions for advanced driver-assistance systems and autonomous vehicles, partnering with major automotive brands [15][16]. Financial Metrics - NVIDIA has an expected revenue growth rate of 51.4% and an earnings growth rate of 41.8% for the current year [17]. - The company boasts a return on equity (ROE) of 105.1%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's ROE of 17% [19].