Nvidia's China AI Chip Sales Outlook - Nvidia's stock increased by approximately 5% following the announcement of resuming AI chip sales in China [1] - The company anticipates minimal H20 revenue from China until late in the year [2] - Export licenses are pending, previous orders were cancelled, and approximately $45 billion in inventory was written down [3] Supply Chain and Production - Restarting production will require time, as much of the inventory consists of unfinished chips [3] - Nvidia's supply chain process takes about 9 months from wafer to the final system [4] - Piper Sandler projects zero contribution from H20 chips for China in July [4] Revenue Projections and Market Shift - Nvidia expects China revenue to potentially recover, contributing between $10 billion and $15 billion annually, representing a low teens percentage of total sales [5] - This projection is lower than earlier estimates of $20 billion [5] - Newer RTX chips based on the Blackwell architecture are expected to gain traction in China, serving as more affordable, export-compliant GPUs for graphics and video workloads [6] Overall Market Impact - The China rebound is anticipated, but investors should not expect it to significantly impact financial results until late this year, potentially in Q4 [7]