RU2509期货合约
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橡胶策略周报:短线操作-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market declined significantly this week, following the overall market downturn. It is mainly driven by market sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [2][3][7] - After the price increase, the short - selling force strengthened, and combined with the negative stance of the Politburo's latest statement, the bullish sentiment in the market subsided, leading to a sharp drop in commodity prices [3] - After the sharp price drop, it has fallen to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range. Considering seasonal factors, the market is not expected to decline further deeply, and short - selling is not advisable [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - The RU2509 contract had an opening price of 15,595, a high of 15,635, a low of 14,275, and a closing price of 14,310, with a decline of 8.18%. The NR2509 contract had an opening price of 13,340, a high of 13,385, a low of 12,080, and a closing price of 12,175, with a decline of 8.6%. The BR2509 contract had an opening price of 12,415, a high of 12,415, a low of 11,380, and a closing price of 11,455, with a decline of 7.73% [3] - The market declined significantly this week, following the overall market downturn. After the price increase, the short - selling force strengthened, and combined with the negative stance of the Politburo's latest statement, the bullish sentiment in the market subsided, leading to a sharp drop in commodity prices. The short - term technical chart shows a bearish pattern [3] 3.2 Spot Market Review - The price of Shanghai Yunnan 23 - year state - owned whole latex with 9% tax was 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,170 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 160 US dollars/ton compared with last week [4] - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation Review - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased this week. The subtotal inventory decreased by 2,388 tons to 208,426 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 4,390 tons to 177,630 tons [5] 3.4 Market Structure - The basis this week was smaller compared with last week, and the decline of futures prices was greater [6] 3.5 Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market declined significantly this week, following the overall market downturn [7] - The prices of Thai raw materials declined across the board this week [7] - In terms of tire enterprises, the operating rates continued to decline slightly, and the inventories of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires decreased [7] - The bullish sentiment dissipated, and natural rubber prices dropped significantly. After the sharp price drop, it has fallen to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range. Considering seasonal factors, the market is not expected to decline further deeply, and short - selling is not advisable. Short - term trading is recommended [7][8]