证券研究报告 机器人旋转关节核心部件，精密减速器国产替代正当时 ——人形机器人行业深度报告 证券分析师：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 证券分析师：郭雨蒙 执业证书编号：S0600525030002 二零二五年七月二十四日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 报告核心观点 2 ◼减速器是人形机器人旋转关节核心部件，通过降速增矩保证机器人运动控制的高精度与稳定性。 减速器是连接动力源和执行结构的中间结构，我国减速器市场规模持续增长，减速器企业工艺 水平不断提升，国产减速器供应能力日益增强。 ◼当前人形机器人关节模组精密减速器可分为谐波减速器，RV减速器，行星减速器和摆线针轮减 速器。1）谐波：传动比高、精密度高但因柔轮不断形变对材料疲劳寿命、加工设备要求高， 可应用于机器人小臂、腕部以及手部；2）行星：成本低制造难度小，但精度不高，目前主要 应用于机器人手部；3）RV：高负载高刚度大体积，可应用于机器人机座、大臂、肩部等重负 载；4）摆线针轮：高精度高负载，且噪音低体积小，可应用于机器人腰髋部、腿部等。我们 对不同减速器方案进行范围内初步对比排序，得到传动精度：谐波/摆线针轮>RV>行星；体积 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China's Manufacturing Sector - **Key Themes**: Transition driven by domestic consumption shifts, global trade dynamics, and technology innovation [1][2] Core Insights - **Demand Recovery**: Recovery in demand remains uneven and fragile, with weak performance reported in Q2, particularly from April to May due to deteriorating consumer sentiment and tariff-related uncertainties [2][3] - **Bright Spots**: Industrial robots and painting sectors show signs of demand bottoming out, while exports have emerged as a relative bright spot for several companies [2][3] - **Manufacturing Evolution**: China's manufacturing is evolving through differentiation, globalization, localization, and new economies, rather than losing competitiveness [3][4] Company-Specific Insights Skshu (603737 CH) - **Performance**: Retail sales growth remained in single digits due to a high base in Q2 2024, with a full-year target near 10% [13][16] - **New Retail Strategy**: Aims to increase new retail's revenue contribution from 23% to 40% by 2025, targeting 15% market penetration in 3-5 years [13][16] - **Profitability Goals**: Long-term profit margin target above 10%, with a focus on reducing expense ratios and increasing gross margins [16][19] Shuanghuan (002472 CH) - **Demand Momentum**: NEV gear sales estimated to grow over 30% YoY in Q2, with strong demand from major clients like Xiaomi and XPeng [11][8] - **Expansion Plans**: Adding capacity in Hungary due to strong local demand, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing despite cost inflation [4][11] Jack Technology (603337 CH) - **Sales Growth**: Management targets around 20% YoY sales growth in 2025, with strong overseas sales expected to outperform domestic growth [20][24] - **Product Differentiation**: Focus on hardware-software integration and innovative product offerings to compete with Japanese brands [24][25] Weixing (002003 CH) - **Market Challenges**: Domestic demand is weak, particularly in mid-to-high-end apparel accessories, with a cautious outlook for 2025 [29][30] - **Overseas Opportunities**: Gaining share in Adidas and Nike's supply chains, despite overall U.S. consumer sentiment weakening [29][30] Vasen New Building Materials (002372 CH) - **Weak Domestic Demand**: Q2 performance worse than Q1, with shipment volumes declining over 10% YoY [31][33] - **Market Position**: Holds a 20% national market share in China's PPR pipes market, with ambitions to reach 40% over the next decade [33] Yinlun (002126 CH) - **Customer Base**: Serves a diversified customer base across passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and digital energy, with Tesla as the largest customer [37][36] - **Growth Projections**: Targets a CAGR of 20% over the next five years, driven by overseas expansion [37][36] Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: The indirect impact of tariffs has led to cautious order behavior among clients, affecting overall demand [2][29] - **Investment Trends**: Companies are increasingly focusing on product innovation and customization to differentiate themselves in a competitive landscape [4][20] - **Market Dynamics**: The global valve market is projected to grow significantly, with Neway aiming for Rmb10 billion in revenue by 2028 [59][62] Conclusion The conference call highlighted the complexities and challenges facing China's manufacturing sector, with a focus on evolving strategies for differentiation and globalization. Companies are navigating a fragile recovery landscape while seeking to capitalize on emerging opportunities both domestically and internationally.