Key Points The long-term supply-demand picture should be favorable for critical minerals and rare-earth elements, which should help boost stock prices of select companies. Mining stocks are particularly risky due to the very high cost and long process of developing and expanding mines. Buying an exchange-traded fund (ETF) can be a less risky way to gain exposure to critical minerals and rare-earth elements relative to buying individual stocks. 10 stocks we like better than VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $10 million, down from $29 million in Q4 2024, with a net loss of $9 million compared to a net income of $4 million in Q4 2024 [31] - Class A EPS showed a loss of $0.19 in Q1 versus a gain of $0.06 in Q4 [31] - Key U.S. metallurgical coal indices fell 3% in Q1 compared to Q4, while the Australian benchmark index dropped approximately 9% during the same period [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Company-wide production reached a quarterly record of 1 million tons, annualizing to 4 million tons, despite losing about 150,000 tons due to adverse weather conditions [8][41] - Cash cost per ton sold was under $100 for the second consecutive quarter, placing the company in the first quartile of U.S. metallurgical coal producers [8][33] - The company is reducing its 2025 production guidance to between 3.9 million to 4.3 million tons, down from previous expectations of 4.2 million to 4.6 million tons [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The metallurgical coal market remains under pressure, driven by weak steel mill profitability and strong Chinese steel exports, which have negatively impacted global steel prices [53][54] - The Australian premium low vol index increased to $190.5 per ton, up from a recent low of $166, driven by supply disruptions and steady restocking demand [51] - Domestic end users are taking shipments at a consistent rate, with commitments of 3.7 million tons at an average fixed price of $152 per ton [50] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on not forcing production into a weak market, maintaining the option to increase production if market conditions improve [10] - Plans to expand production by an additional 2 million tons are in place, contingent on market clarity, with a potential increase in production capacity from the Maven Low Vol Complex and Berwind Complex [11] - The Brookline Rare Earth project is seen as a significant opportunity, with plans to initiate large-scale mining in June and construction of a pilot plant expected to begin later in the summer [23][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about potential market recovery, citing recent increases in Australian benchmark prices and anticipated supply cuts from higher-cost producers [12] - The company is well-positioned to withstand near-term market weakness due to strong liquidity and a solid balance sheet [39] - Management remains cautious about the current market conditions but is optimistic about the long-term potential of the critical minerals market [30] Other Important Information - The company has appointed Mike Wolichuk as Executive Vice President to oversee the Critical Minerals project, bringing over 30 years of experience in the field [15] - The Brook Mine is projected to produce approximately 1,400 metric tons of critical mineral oxides per year, with over 95% of expected revenue derived from a basket of seven rare earth elements and critical minerals [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the guidance for sales mix and cost improvements moving into the second half? - Management indicated that Q2 sales guidance implies a pickup in the back half of the year, with costs expected to be at the higher end of the range due to lower tonnage [64][65] Question: Could the Brook Mine be included in the Fast 41 projects for federal benefits? - Management clarified that the Brook Mine was not included as it already has permits, but they are exploring federal assistance for financing and procurement [68][71] Question: Is there a desire to bring in a financing or operating partner for the Brook Mine? - Management stated they are not seeking a joint venture partner and plan to finance the project independently, leveraging existing partnerships for development [76][77] Question: What is the breakdown of CapEx for sustaining versus growth projects? - Management noted a reduction in CapEx guidance, with a focus on maintenance CapEx and deferring some growth projects due to current market conditions [82][83] Question: What are the implications of met coal being declared a potential critical mineral? - Management expressed hope for federal support but noted that immediate benefits are uncertain; they anticipate potential assistance with permitting [88][90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter of 2024 was the strongest quarter of the year for the company, with adjusted EBITDA of $29 million compared to $24 million in Q3, and net income of $4 million compared to breakeven in Q3 [25][30] - Cash margins remained at $33 per tonne, down just $2 per tonne since Q2, despite a nearly $30 drop in met coal prices between Q2 and Q4 [7][25] - Liquidity at year-end was approximately $140 million, marking a more than 50% increase year-on-year and the highest year-end liquidity in company history [30][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Record tons sold were achieved, with a run rate of 4.5 million tons per annum, the highest level in company history [26][28] - The Maven plant construction was completed, reducing net trucking costs by over $20 per clean ton [33][85] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall steel demand remains weak, but there are signs of potential price increases in met coal due to supply cuts and increased domestic steel prices [9][14] - The U.S. met coal production is expected to drop by 16 million tons by the end of the year, representing a 20% decrease in supply [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to increase future production by adding approximately 2 million tons of low vol production once market conditions improve [15][16] - The rare earth and critical minerals project in Wyoming is progressing, with plans to begin full-scale mining in July [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautiously optimistic about the potential for met coal prices to increase in the second half of the year, despite current market challenges [23][24] - The company is focused on maintaining liquidity to capitalize on opportunities during market distress [15][19] Other Important Information - The company has received a $6 million match fund grant recommendation from the Wyoming Energy Authority for the pilot plant [19][92] - The overall size of the rare earth resource is now estimated at 1.7 million tons, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.5 million tons [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on seaborne volumes and netbacks? - The company noted that current netbacks for high vol coal are around $125 per net ton, with low vol slightly higher [60][61] Question: What is the capital intensity of growth projects? - The company indicated that the total capital guidance is $60 million to $70 million, with about $20 million allocated for growth capital [64][66] Question: How do you see balancing growth and shareholder returns? - Management expressed a cautious approach to growth capital expenditures, waiting for clearer market signals before committing to new projects [90][91]