Flash | 22 Aug 2025 00:21:31 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #123 – Steel Inventory and Consumption Data CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China. Market expectations of a demand recovery have been largely cautious. Latest sector pecking order: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement. Production — According to data from Mysteel, from Aug 15 to Aug 21, total China st ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **steel industry** in China, tracking high-frequency demand trends and production data [1] Core Insights - **Production Data**: - Total steel production in China from August 1 to August 7 was **8.7 million tons (mt)**, reflecting a **0.2% week-over-week (WoW)** increase and a **10.9% year-over-year (YoY)** increase. - Breakdown of production: - Rebar: **2.2 mt** (+4.8% WoW, +31.2% YoY) - Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC): **3.1 mt** (-2.4% WoW, +3.7% YoY) - Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC): **0.9 mt** (-1.3% WoW, +6.1% YoY) [1] - **Year-to-Date Production**: - Total steel production from the beginning of the year was **274 mt**, down **0.8% YoY**. - Year-to-date production breakdown: - Rebar: **68.2 mt** (-3.4% YoY) - HRC: **102.3 mt** (+0.5% YoY) - CRC: **27.7 mt** (+2.2% YoY) [1] - **Inventory Levels**: - As of August 7, China's steel inventory stood at **13.8 mt**, up **1.7% WoW** but down **20.2% YoY**. - Inventory breakdown: - Steel mills: **4.1 mt** (+0.8% WoW, -12.3% YoY) - Traders: **9.6 mt** (+2.1% WoW, -23.1% YoY) - Rebar: **5.6 mt** (-22.7% YoY) - HRC: **3.6 mt** (-18.5% YoY) - CRC: **1.4 mt** (-24.3% YoY) [1] - **Apparent Consumption**: - For the week of August 1 to August 7, apparent consumption was **8.5 mt**, down **0.7% WoW** but up **4.6% YoY**. - Lunar calendar consumption showed a **5.6% YoY** increase. - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Rebar: **2.1 mt** (+3.6% WoW, +10.5% YoY) - HRC: **3.1 mt** (-4.3% WoW, +2.6% YoY) - CRC: **0.9 mt** (-2.7% WoW, -0.2% YoY) [1] - **Year-to-Date Apparent Consumption**: - Total apparent consumption year-to-date was **271.2 mt**, down **0.4% YoY**. - Breakdown: - Rebar: **66.7 mt** (-3.8% YoY) - HRC: **101.7 mt** (+1.2% YoY) - CRC: **27.8 mt** (+4.0% YoY) [1] Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the steel sector, with a pecking order of demand recovery being aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] This summary encapsulates the key data and insights from the conference call regarding the steel industry in China, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its current challenges, particularly in relation to the **anti-involution push** and **social welfare initiatives** introduced by Beijing to address the "3D" challenges facing the country [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-side Dynamics**: There has been an **uneven rebound in upstream prices** in July, with notable increases in specific sectors: - **Polycrystalline silicon** prices increased by approximately **30% month-to-date (MTD)** from late June. - **Lithium hydroxide** prices rose by about **8%**. - **Coal** prices saw a **4%** increase [2][20]. - **Demand-side Concerns**: The sustainability of the price rebound is contingent on **final demand**. The current recovery in upstream prices may not be sustainable without a corresponding increase in consumer demand, which has been sluggish [3][4]. - **Final Demand Trends**: - The **housing market** and **export recovery** were critical in previous cycles (2015-2018) for successful reflation. However, current indicators suggest a potential moderation in exports, particularly to the US, due to declining restocking demand [4][10]. - **Construction activity** remains weak, with demand for **rebar** and **cement** below 2024 levels, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market and local government financing [7][24]. - **Social Dynamics Indicator**: Recent surveys indicate a decline in sentiment among depositors, with perceptions of the employment situation reaching a record low. This reflects broader economic challenges and aligns with the recent policy shifts aimed at addressing these issues [7][26]. Additional Important Insights - The **July Politburo meeting** emphasized "high quality" urban renewal as a strategy to mitigate the housing market downturn, suggesting limited infrastructure investment support in the absence of decisive stimulus [7]. - The **Social Dynamics Indicator** has shown renewed challenges in Q2 2025, closely tracking with policy moves such as anti-involution initiatives and expanded social welfare [7][26]. - The report highlights that while upstream sectors may experience price increases due to supply constraints, midstream sectors like **petrochemicals** and **construction materials** have shown muted pricing improvements, indicating a lag in demand recovery [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its implications for various sectors.

Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was BRL 2.6 billion, a 6.6% increase compared to the previous year, with North America being the standout segment [6] - Net income reached BRL 864 million, or BRL 0.43 per share, reflecting a 14% increase year-over-year [6] - The company's leverage ratio, net debt over EBITDA, ended at 0.85 times, significantly below the established debt policy level [8] Business Segment Performance - North American operations contributed 61% of consolidated EBITDA, marking the highest share in the company's history [4] - Brazilian operations faced challenges due to excessive steel imports, with an import penetration rate of 23.4% in the first half of the year [5] - The company plans to reduce investments in Brazil due to the unfavorable market conditions and high import levels [5][20] Market Dynamics - The North American market is experiencing high steel demand, particularly from the non-residential construction sector, with order backlogs above historical levels [10][11] - In Brazil, despite good demand for steel, the market is negatively impacted by high levels of imports, leading to concerns about future import records if trade defense mechanisms are not improved [12] - The company is closely monitoring the automotive and agricultural sectors, which are being affected by high interest rates [12] Strategic Direction - The company is committed to sustainability, achieving the lowest GHD emissions in its history at 0.85 tons of CO2 per ton of steel produced [3] - Future capital expenditures (CapEx) will be reduced, particularly in Brazil, while maintaining investments in North America to capitalize on favorable market conditions [20][22] - The company aims to balance supply and demand in North America without overextending capacity, focusing on high-value products [23][24] Management Commentary - Management expressed disappointment with the lack of effective trade defense measures in Brazil, which has led to a challenging competitive landscape [41] - The company anticipates positive cash generation in the second half of the year, with expectations for improved free cash flow [49] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a robust balance sheet during the current investment cycle, despite increased leverage [39] Other Important Information - The company has approved a dividend distribution of BRL 239 million, reflecting a payout ratio of 90% for the second quarter [9] - CapEx for the quarter was BRL 1.6 billion, primarily allocated to the Miguel Bernier sustainable mining project, which is 72% complete [8] - The company is executing a share buyback program, having completed 68% of the planned buybacks for the year [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: CapEx expectations and mining project details - Management discussed the sustainable mining project and its expected incremental EBITDA contribution of BRL 1.1 billion once operational [16][28] - Future CapEx levels will be reduced, particularly in Brazil, due to the lack of competitive returns in the current market [20][22] Question: Concerns about increasing net debt and cash flow - Management acknowledged the increase in net debt but emphasized that a significant portion was used for shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [31][39] - The company expects to generate positive cash flow in the second half of the year, which should help reduce leverage [49][57] Question: Strategy for rebar market and competition - Management confirmed that Gerdau is not losing market share in the rebar segment and is focused on maintaining its competitive position despite high import levels [64][68] - The company is cautious about pricing strategies in the rebar market, given the current competitive dynamics [46][70] Question: Future investments and structural measures in Brazil - Management indicated that while investments in Brazil will be reduced, maintenance CapEx will continue to ensure competitiveness [72] - The company is exploring long-term adjustments to adapt to the current market conditions in Brazil [62][60]

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws with respect to general economic conditions, key macro-economic drivers that impact our business, the effects of ongoing trade actions, the effects of continued pressure on the liquidity of our customers, potential synergies and growth provided by acquisitions and strategic investments, demand for our products, shipment volumes, metal margins, the ability to operate our steel mills at full capacity, parti ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Commercial Metals (CMC) will report quarterly earnings of $0.75 per share, reflecting a 26.5% decline year over year, with revenues expected to reach $2.01 billion, down 3.3% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 5.1%, indicating a collective reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate that 'Net Sales- Emerging Businesses Group- Net sales from external customers' will be $185.76 million, a year-over-year decline of 1.5% [5]. - 'Net sales from external customers- North America' are projected to be $1.60 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 4.5% [5]. - 'Net sales from external customers- Europe' are expected to reach $215.88 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 3.4% [6]. - 'Net sales from external customers- Corporate and Other' are estimated at $13.13 million, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 34.9% [6]. Key Metrics - The consensus estimate for 'Major product- North America- Other' is $37.24 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 18.4% [7]. - The average selling price (per ton) for 'Raw materials' in North America is forecasted to be $951.15, down from $970 in the same quarter last year [7]. - The estimated 'Steel products metal margin per ton' in Europe is projected at $289.43, slightly down from $292 year-over-year [7]. - The average selling price (per ton) for 'Downstream products' in North America is expected to be $1,252.19, down from $1,330 in the same quarter last year [8]. - The 'Steel products metal margin per ton' in North America is projected to be $495.12, down from $538 in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Europe - Steel products (External tons shipped)' is expected to reach 317.31 thousand, up from 297 thousand year-over-year [9]. - The average prediction for 'Europe - Steel products - Rebar' is 97.15 thousand, up from 80 thousand in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Commercial Metals shares have recorded a return of +0.8%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.4% change, indicating potential underperformance in the upcoming period [11].

Investment Rating - The report has shifted its near-term investment pecking order to prioritize steel over other materials, indicating a positive outlook for the steel industry [1]. Core Insights - Market expectations for a demand recovery in China remain cautious, with a focus on tracking high-frequency on-ground demand trends [1]. - Steel production in China has decreased by 2.4% week-over-week (WoW) and 4.3% year-over-year (YoY) for the week of June 6 to June 12, totaling 8.6 million tons [2]. - China's steel inventory as of June 12 was 13.5 million tons, down 0.7% WoW and 23.3% YoY, indicating a tightening supply [3]. - Apparent steel consumption in China for the same week was 8.7 million tons, reflecting a decline of 1.6% WoW and 2.3% YoY [4]. Production Summary - Total steel production from the beginning of the year until now stands at 204.2 million tons, which is a decrease of 1.1% YoY [2]. - Specific production figures for rebar, hot-rolled coil (HRC), and cold-rolled coil (CRC) are 51 million tons, 76.5 million tons, and 20.7 million tons respectively, with varying YoY changes [2]. Inventory Summary - The inventory breakdown shows that steel mills hold 4.3 million tons and traders hold 9.3 million tons, with significant YoY reductions in both categories [3]. - The total inventory for rebar, HRC, and CRC is 5.6 million tons, 3.5 million tons, and 1.4 million tons respectively, with notable declines in rebar and CRC inventories YoY [3]. Consumption Summary - Year-to-date apparent consumption of steel in China is 201.6 million tons, which is a slight decrease of 0.3% YoY [4]. - The apparent consumption figures for rebar, HRC, and CRC year-to-date are 49.3 million tons, 76.2 million tons, and 20.8 million tons, showing mixed YoY performance [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing varied price movements across different regions, with the US showing the highest year-to-date price increase of 34% and Europe at 28% [3] - China's crude steel production increased by 18% month-on-month in March 2025, indicating a recovery from previous declines [3] - The report highlights that India is the main growth driver in steel production, with an 8% year-on-year increase [3] Global Prices - In April, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in Brazil declined by 1% month-on-month, while prices in China, Japan, and the US fell by 3%, 2%, and 2% respectively [3] - On a year-to-date basis, the highest price increases have occurred in the US (+34%) and Europe (+28%) [3][6] Regional Production Insights - China's crude steel production showed a year-on-year growth of 5% in March, recovering from earlier declines [3] - EU crude steel production rose by 16% month-on-month in March but remained flat year-on-year [3] - Latin America saw a 9% month-on-month increase in crude steel production in March, reverting to a 7% year-on-year growth [3] Price Performance - HRC price performance in various regions for April shows the following: EU at $745 (+7.6% month-on-month, +28% year-to-date), US at $1,020 (-2.1% month-on-month, +34.1% year-to-date), and China at $449 (-3.4% month-on-month, -4.7% year-to-date) [6] - Rebar prices in the EU increased by 6.3% month-on-month and 17% year-to-date, while in China, prices decreased by 4.3% month-on-month [13] Capacity Utilization - Global effective steel capacity utilization is reported at varying levels, with China showing a utilization rate of 91.6% in April 2025 [36] - The report indicates that spare capacity by region is significant, with China having the highest spare capacity at 80 million tonnes [25] Trade and Demand - The report notes an increase in flat steel demand, which is above last year's levels, indicating a positive trend in the market [55] - Long steel demand has also increased over the past two weeks, suggesting a recovery in this segment [59] Steelmakers' Profitability - The profitability of steelmakers is under pressure as HRC prices decreased by 3% month-on-month and rebar prices by 4% month-on-month in China [62] - The report highlights that the spreads for HRC and rebar have decreased, impacting overall profitability [66]

Core Viewpoint - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market experienced a decline across all major commodities as of April 30, with significant drops in prices for manganese silicon, iron ore, hot-rolled coil, and silicon iron [1] Price Movements - Manganese silicon futures fell by 1.28%, settling at 5714.00 CNY/ton - Iron ore futures decreased by 0.85%, reaching 703.00 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled coil futures dropped by 0.65%, priced at 3197.00 CNY/ton - Silicon iron futures declined by 0.71%, now at 5592.00 CNY/ton [1] Warehouse Inventory Data - As of April 29, rebar futures warehouse inventory stood at 199,647 tons, unchanged from the previous period - Iron ore futures warehouse inventory was at 3,200 contracts, also unchanged - Stainless steel futures warehouse inventory decreased by 1,799 tons to 163,143 tons - Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse inventory fell by 2,653 tons to 347,020 tons - Silicon iron futures warehouse inventory increased by 388 contracts to 19,180 contracts - Manganese silicon futures warehouse inventory decreased by 612 contracts to 131,826 contracts [1] Basis Data and Price Discrepancies - As of April 29, the commodity futures basis data indicated a "backwardation" phenomenon for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, stainless steel, and iron ore contracts - Current spot prices for rebar are 3186.89 CNY, while futures are at 3109 CNY - Wire rod spot prices are 3387.5 CNY, with futures at 3286 CNY - Hot-rolled coil spot prices are 3273.33 CNY, compared to futures at 3218 CNY - Stainless steel spot prices are 13050 CNY, with futures at 12700 CNY - Silicon iron spot prices are 5548.57 CNY, while futures are at 5632 CNY - Manganese silicon spot prices are 5652 CNY, with futures at 5788 CNY - Iron ore spot prices are 779.44 CNY, while futures are at 709 CNY [1]