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Can Carvana Deliver 40% CAGR in Unit Sales Over the Next 5 Years?
ZACKS· 2025-08-25 16:21
Core Insights - Carvana Co. (CVNA) aims for a 40% compound annual growth in unit sales over the next five years, focusing on reconditioning as a key operational area [1][9] Operational Focus - The integration of 12 ADESA sites has expanded inventory access and reduced vehicle transport distances, despite requiring upfront investments [2][9] - Logistics improvements have led to a reduction in average miles traveled per vehicle, supporting long-term growth while maintaining efficiency [3][9] - Market operations are enhancing delivery speeds and building capacity ahead of demand, utilizing large data sets to fuel AI models for better customer communication and cost reduction [4][9] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) and Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) are expanding their geographical footprints to boost sales, although they have not set ambitious annual vehicle sales goals [5] - Group 1 has made several acquisitions in 2025, including dealerships in the UK and Florida, projected to contribute approximately $640 million in annualized revenues [6] - Lithia has also expanded its presence with acquisitions expected to generate around $400 million in annualized revenues [7] Financial Performance - Carvana has outperformed the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry year to date, with shares gaining 75.9% compared to the industry's 13% growth [8] - The company appears overvalued based on its price/sales ratio, trading at a forward sales multiple of 3.47, higher than the industry's 2.29 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 EPS has increased by 3 cents and 41 cents, respectively, in the past 30 days [11]