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国泰海通|产业:论AI生态开源:以Red Hat为例研判Deep Seek开源大模型的商业战略
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-18 15:21
Core Viewpoint - The open-source strategy of the phenomenon-level model DeepSeek is causing multi-faceted disruption, with potential commercial models comparable to the mature experiences of the open-source software industry [1] Group 1: Open-Source Strategy - DeepSeek is restructuring the global AI competitive landscape with performance comparable to GPT-4, innovative architecture, and a low-cost open-source strategy [1] - Unlike previous closed-source models, DeepSeek publishes core technologies and adopts a permissive MIT license to support free commercial use and secondary development, accelerating industry technology upgrades and expanding AI application scenarios [1] - The open-source model demonstrates strong externalities and positions "open-source" as a significant direction for global AI industry development [1] Group 2: Comparison with Red Hat - DeepSeek shares similarities with Red Hat in their open-source strategy and the early-stage industry development phase, with a focus on service as a sustainable revenue increment [2] - Both companies emphasize technology openness to drive industry development, which accelerates enterprise deployment and builds an ecosystem based on operating systems/AI models [2] - The commercial model of DeepSeek can draw from Red Hat's approach, focusing on addressing enterprise application pain points for sustainable revenue growth [2] Group 3: Market Adoption and Ecosystem Building - In the early stages of commercialization, the open-source model will attract widespread enterprise deployment of DeepSeek, helping to build a scalable ecological barrier [3] - Within 20 days of the official release of DeepSeek-R1, over 160 enterprises have connected, forming a multi-field cooperative ecosystem in the AI industry chain [3] - The open-source model lowers technical barriers and costs, accelerating technology accessibility and attracting various enterprises, including small and medium-sized businesses and government entities [3] Group 4: Revenue Model - In the mid-to-late stage, DeepSeek can achieve a commercial closure through "API call-based basic income + enterprise service subscription value-added income" [4] - The basic income will utilize a low-cost API call charging strategy, which is expected to reduce hardware investment costs through increased call frequency as the ecosystem expands [4] - Value-added income can be generated by providing technical subscription services to address the engineering deployment needs of enterprises using the model, transforming complex engineering issues into standardized service modules [4]