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Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-29 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 5% from $19.25 in the prior quarter to $20.21 as of December 31, 2025 [23] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) rose by $0.01 to $0.74, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [24] - Economic return for Q4 was 8.6%, bringing the full-year economic return to 20.2% [23][24] - Economic leverage decreased to 5.6 turns, down from the previous quarter [8][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio ended 2025 at $93 billion, an increase of nearly $6 billion quarter-over-quarter and $22 billion year-over-year, representing 62% of the firm's capital [9] - The residential credit portfolio reached $8 billion, up $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter, representing approximately 19% of the firm's capital [13] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio ended at $3.8 billion, a $280 million increase quarter-over-quarter and a 15% increase year-over-year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fixed income markets showed strong performance, with the U.S. aggregate bond index registering the highest total return since 2020 [7] - The yield curve steepened during the quarter as short-term yields fell while long-term yields rose modestly [7] - The agency market experienced significant spread tightening following GSE's MBS purchase announcements [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase capital allocation to residential credit and MSR, targeting a long-term equity allocation of 50% Agency MBS, 30% RESI, and 20% MSR [78][79] - The diversified housing finance model is expected to continue performing well for shareholders, with a focus on maintaining market leadership across various strategies [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains solid, with the labor market showing signs of softness but limited layoffs [5][6] - Management expressed confidence in the durability of the swaps market as a hedge and the overall stability of the agency market [31][32] - The company anticipates continued growth in the non-agency market and is well-positioned to benefit from increased liquidity in the non-QM market [20][21] Other Important Information - The company raised $560 million of common equity in Q4, bringing total equity raised in 2025 to $2.9 billion [9] - The efficiency ratio improved to 1.31% for Q4, with a full-year ratio of 1.42% [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on mark-to-market book values - Management reported a 4% increase in book value, inclusive of dividend accrual [30] Question: Portfolio returns and comfort level with dividend in 2026 - Management expressed confidence in achieving mid-teens returns and stated the dividend is safe [31][32] Question: Insights on MSR portfolio and current coupon MSR - Management discussed the infrastructure set up for active participation in the MSR market and the potential for increased origination [36][40] Question: Impact of G-fee cuts on prepayment environment - Management indicated that a G-fee cut on purchase loans could be beneficial, but broad cuts might negatively impact the MBS market [46] Question: Risks that could change the low-risk environment - Management identified global fiscal risks and asset market euphoria as potential concerns [60][61] Question: Attractiveness of buying lower-coupon MBS - Management noted that valuations on low-coupon MBS are tight, and better ways to manage risk exist [68] Question: Likelihood of GSE portfolio caps being increased - Management stated uncertainty regarding the increase of caps but noted the GSEs have significant capacity [84]
Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Presentation
2026-01-29 14:00
Fourth Quarter 2025 Investor Presentation January 28, 2026 Important Notices This presentation is issued by Annaly Capital Management, Inc. ("Annaly"), an internally-managed, publicly traded company that has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes, and is being furnished in connection with Annaly's Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings release. This presentation is provided for investors in Annaly for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicita ...
Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-23 14:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 and 11.5% year-to-date [20][21] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [22] - The average yield improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with total growth of $7.8 billion [9][10] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with significant contributions from securitization and loan purchases [11][12] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and low delinquency rates [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, despite elevated inflation near 3% [5][6] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate [7] - Interest rate volatility declined, benefiting the company's portfolio by lowering convexity costs [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, generating a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [19] - The investment strategies are positioned for the balance of the year, with expectations of declining macro volatility and additional Fed cuts [18] - The company aims to increase its residential credit and MSR weightings to a combined 40% [27][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a positive outlook for the agency sector, citing improved demand dynamics and expectations for regulatory reform [17][18] - The company remains cautious about taking on additional rate risk, preferring to maintain a stable duration profile amid market uncertainties [56][59] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining high credit quality in the residential credit portfolio, especially in light of softer housing market conditions [15] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program [8] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased modestly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management noted that despite tighter spreads, the agency sector remains attractive due to improved fundamentals and technicals [26] Question: Bulk supply and pricing for MSR - The bulk supply has increased from large participants, with stable pricing encouraging future bulk supply [29] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with low realized volatility aiding hedging costs [33] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - Non-QM issuance is expected to grow, with the market penetration of non-QM loans increasing significantly [47][49] Question: Duration risk and portfolio management - The company is currently maintaining a close-to-zero duration gap due to market uncertainties, with a cautious approach to taking on additional rate risk [56][59]
Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-24 14:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per share decreased by 3% from the prior quarter to $18.45, while earnings available for distribution per share increased by $0.01 to $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [20][21] - The economic return for Q2 was 0.7%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of positive economic returns, with a year-to-date economic return of 3.7% and total shareholder return exceeding 10% [9][20] - The investment portfolio yield increased to 5.41% from 5.23% in the prior quarter, while average repo rates decreased to 4.53% [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency portfolio's market value rose to nearly $80 billion, a 6% increase quarter-over-quarter, with a $4.5 billion growth in notional terms [10][11] - The residential credit portfolio remained stable at $6.6 billion in market value, with Onslow Bay achieving record securitization activity of $3.6 billion across seven transactions [13][14] - The Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) portfolio ended the quarter unchanged at $3.3 billion, with solid performance metrics including a three-month CPR of 4.6% and serious delinquencies unchanged at 50 basis points [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at around 1% annualized for the first half of the year, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [6][8] - Inflation is expected to run at the slowest level in the past three quarters, with the Fed anticipated to deliver two interest rate cuts in 2025 [7][8] - Agency MBS spreads widened by 5 to 10 basis points during the quarter, despite improvements in market sentiment [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong focus on the agency sector while strategically growing its residential credit and MSR portfolios [18] - The management is optimistic about the agency sector fundamentals and potential catalysts for improvement, including GSE reform [12][18] - The company has diversified its funding sources significantly, enhancing liquidity and operational flexibility [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to cover and potentially out-earn the dividend for the remainder of the year, citing a conducive environment for achieving close to the dividend yield [28][29] - The company is well-positioned to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties, with a focus on managing rate risk and maintaining low leverage [34][40] - The outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued strong risk-adjusted returns in the current environment [18][19] Other Important Information - The company raised over $750 million of accretive capital in Q2, predominantly deployed in the agency sector, leading to a modest increase in leverage to 5.8 turns [9][10] - The MSR portfolio's valuation improved modestly due to a steepening yield curve and lower implied volatility [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on book value quarter to date - The pre-dividend accrual book was up about 0.5%, indicating a 1.5% economic return [27] Question: Comfort level with the dividend - Management expressed confidence in covering the dividend, with expectations to out-earn it for the remainder of the year [28] Question: Managing the portfolio through volatility - The company maintained a good liquidity position and managed exposure carefully, allowing leverage to drift higher while focusing on rate risk [33][34] Question: Expectations for GSE reform - Management expects GSE reform to be prioritized, which could create opportunities for the company in the origination space [56] Question: Demand for Agency MBS - Demand from fixed income funds has been strong, with expectations for MBS spreads to tighten even without additional demand from banks [75][76] Question: Outlook for residential credit issuance - The company anticipates robust issuance in the second half of the year, tracking to be the highest since 2021 [81] Question: Impact of tariffs on inflation - Management acknowledged that inflation will pass through due to tariffs, but they remain optimistic about achieving the expected Fed cuts [92][96]
Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-24 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per share decreased by 3% from the prior quarter to $18.45, while earnings available for distribution per share increased by $0.01 to $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [19][20] - The economic return for Q2 was 0.7%, bringing the year-to-date economic return to 3.7% [7][20] - The net interest spread excluding PAA increased to 1.47% in Q2 compared to 1.24% a year ago, and the net interest margin excluding PAA was 1.71% in Q2 compared to 1.58% in Q2 2024 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency portfolio ended the quarter at nearly $80 billion in market value, up 6% quarter over quarter, with a growth of approximately $4.5 billion in notional terms [9][10] - The residential credit portfolio remained relatively unchanged at $6.6 billion in market value, with Onslow Bay achieving its highest quarterly securitization activity to date, closing $3.6 billion across seven transactions [12][13] - The MSR portfolio ended the quarter unchanged at $3.3 billion in market value, with solid fundamental performance and a three-month CPR of 4.6% [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy is expected to grow around 1% annualized for the first half of the year, with an unemployment rate marginally lowered to 4.1% [5][6] - Inflation is likely to have run at the slowest level in the past three quarters, with the Fed expected to deliver two interest rate cuts in 2025 [6][7] - Agency MBS spreads widened by 5 to 10 basis points on the quarter, despite a positive reversal in sentiment towards risk assets [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains optimistic about the agency sector, citing sound fundamentals and potential catalysts for improvement in Agency MBS technicals [11] - The focus is on further building out flow servicing relationships and expanding subservicing and recapture partnerships to capitalize on MSR opportunities [17] - The company plans to strategically grow its residential credit and MSR portfolios while maintaining a flexible investment approach with low leverage and ample liquidity [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macroeconomic environment has shown resilience, with a balanced labor market and muted layoffs, affirming the Fed's wait-and-see stance [5][6] - The company expects to be overweight in agency investments due to historically attractive spread levels, while also anticipating growth in residential credit and MSR portfolios [17] - Management expressed confidence in covering and potentially out-earning the dividend for the remainder of the year, given the current economic return [27][28] Other Important Information - The company raised over $750 million of accretive capital in Q2, predominantly deployed in the agency sector, with leverage increasing modestly to 5.8 turns [8] - The company has diversified its funding sources significantly, with non-mark-to-market capacity growing from $150 million to $1.9 billion [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on book value quarter to date - The book value was up about 0.5% pre-dividend accrual, indicating a 1.5% economic return [26] Question: Comfort level with the dividend - Management expressed confidence in covering the dividend, expecting to out-earn it for the remainder of the year [27][28] Question: Managing the portfolio through volatility - Management was comfortable allowing leverage to rise due to a strong liquidity position and focused on managing rate exposure [32][34] Question: Dynamics of the credit portfolio - The quality of the credit portfolio is high, with proactive measures taken to tighten credit standards [45][46] Question: Expectations for GSE reform - Management expects GSE reform to be prioritized now that the tax bill is completed, which could create opportunities for the company [56] Question: Demand for Agency MBS - Demand from fixed income funds has been strong, and the company expects MBS spreads to tighten even without additional demand from banks [76][77]
Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-01 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The economic return for Q1 2025 was 3%, consistent with the previous quarter, with earnings available for distribution per share at $0.72 [18][19] - Book value per share slightly declined to $19.02, a decrease of less than 1% quarter over quarter [19][22] - The common stock dividend was increased from $0.65 to $0.70 per share, reflecting earnings momentum [7][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency portfolio saw a notional growth of $3.5 billion, driven by purchases of intermediate coupon TBAs [10][11] - The Residential Credit portfolio decreased by $340 million quarter over quarter, ending at $6.6 billion in market value [12][13] - The Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) portfolio remained relatively unchanged at $3.3 billion in market value [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Economic leverage increased modestly to 5.7 turns, remaining at the low end of the historical range [9][19] - The housing market showed signs of regional disparity, with home price appreciation slowing down due to increased inventory and affordability issues [13][60] - Inventory levels increased by 18% year over year, impacting existing home sales, which were at their lowest since February [57][58] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a conservative leverage approach amidst market volatility while focusing on agency investments due to attractive returns [17][37] - The strategic alignment with industry-leading sub-servicing partners is expected to create competitive advantages in the MSR business [15][16] - The company is optimistic about the potential for regulatory reforms that could positively impact the market dynamics [32][71] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with volatility expected to persist [9][17] - The outlook for the housing market is stable in the long term, supported by low delinquencies and tight underwriting standards, despite short-term pullbacks [60][61] - The company is prepared for potential market fluctuations with a diversified and actively managed portfolio [17][22] Other Important Information - The company has approximately $7.5 billion in assets available for financing, reflecting a $600 million increase compared to the previous quarter [22] - The weighted average repo days extended to 50 days, indicating a strategic shift in financing [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on book value quarter to date - The book value was off roughly 3.5% as of the latest update, improving from a 4.5% decline post-Easter [25] Question: Outlook for spreads and regulatory impacts - Swap spreads have tightened due to volatility, and regulatory reforms are anticipated to positively influence market conditions [26][32] Question: Thoughts on leverage amidst spread widening - The company is balancing the opportunity to increase leverage against the risks posed by high volatility [36][37] Question: Housing price moderation and systemic risks - Housing price increases are regional, with some areas experiencing declines, but overall, the market remains stable due to strong borrower equity [60][61] Question: Agency portfolio supply-demand dynamics - Demand from fixed income funds was strong before recent volatility, with banks and REITs also showing reasonable demand [85] Question: Impact of rate and spread volatility on loan acquisitions - The company is adopting a more defensive posture in response to increased spreads, but lock volumes remain stable [90]
Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-01 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings available for distribution per share of $0.72, consistent with the prior quarter, driven by lower average repo rates of 4.56% compared to 4.93% in the previous quarter [18] - The book value per share was $19.02, reflecting a modest decline of less than 1% quarter over quarter [18] - The economic return for Q1 was 3%, with individual business segments contributing positively despite a challenging macro environment [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency portfolio saw a notional growth of $3.5 billion, driven by purchases of intermediate coupon TBAs [9] - The Residential Credit portfolio ended the quarter at $6.6 billion in market value, with a decrease of $340 million quarter over quarter due to opportunistic sales and increased securitizations [11] - The Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) portfolio remained relatively unchanged at $3.3 billion in market value, with $28 billion in principal balance settled during Q1 [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Economic leverage increased modestly to 5.7 turns, remaining at the low end of the historical range [6] - The housing market is showing signs of increased regional disparity, with some areas experiencing a modest reversal in home price appreciation trends [12] - Inventory levels have increased, with a year-over-year rise of 18%, impacting the spring selling season [58] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a conservative leverage approach amidst market volatility, balancing the opportunity to increase leverage with the risks associated with high volatility [38] - The focus remains on agency investments as spreads have cheapened, while also continuing to grow the OBX platform for loan acquisition and securitization [76] - The company is strategically aligned with industry-leading sub-servicing partners to enhance efficiency and technological investment in the mortgage industry [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the impact of U.S. trade policy on consumer and business confidence, which may affect economic growth [7] - Despite the uncertain outlook, the company believes its diversified and actively managed portfolio positions it well to perform across various economic scenarios [17] - The management remains optimistic about the housing market's long-term stability due to low delinquencies and tight underwriting standards, despite short-term pullbacks in certain regions [62] Other Important Information - The company increased its common stock dividend to $0.70 per share, underscoring earnings momentum [6] - The total assets available for financing increased to approximately $7.5 billion, reflecting enhanced liquidity [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on book value quarter to date - The book value was off roughly 3.5% as of Tuesday evening, improving from a 4.5% decline post-Easter [26] Question: Outlook for spreads and regulatory impacts - Swap spreads have tightened due to volatility, and regulatory reforms are anticipated to positively impact market conditions in the future [27][33] Question: Thoughts on leverage given current market conditions - The company is maintaining a conservative leverage approach due to high volatility, despite wider spreads suggesting a potential increase in risk [37][39] Question: Supply-demand dynamics in the agency portfolio - There was strong demand from fixed income funds and banks, but foreign demand, particularly from Asian accounts, remains limited [87][88] Question: Impact of housing price moderation on the market - Housing prices have increased significantly since 2019, but recent inventory increases may lead to short-term pullbacks in certain regions [58][62]