整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 从目前来看，2024年全球处方药销售额排名前七的公司分别为：强生（Johnson & Johnson，557亿美元）、艾伯维（AbbVie，545亿美 元）、默沙东（Merck，543亿美元）、罗氏（Roche，525亿美元）、辉瑞（Pfizer，520亿美元）、阿斯利康（AstraZeneca，509亿美 元）以及诺华（Novartis，502亿美元）。Evaluate预计，礼来和诺和诺德将在2030年前迅速超越上述公司。 根据Evaluate Pharma的数据，受益于糖尿病和肥胖治疗药物销售的持续增长，礼来（Eli Lilly）有望在2030年成为全球处方药销售额最 高的生物制药公司，预计届时销售收入将达到1130亿美元，远超排名第二的诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk），后者预计为840亿美元。 在其发布的《2025年全球前瞻》报告中，Evaluate指出，糖尿病与肥胖药物将继续主导市场，预计2024年至2030年间年均增长率将达到 20%。其中，礼来将从这一增长中获益更多，其2024年处方药销售额为410亿美元，而诺和诺德则为420亿美元，预计至2030年二者均 ...

Core Insights - AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) are prominent players in the biopharmaceutical industry, each with diverse portfolios and global reach [1][2] - Both companies have established strong positions in their respective therapeutic areas, making it challenging to choose between them based on fundamentals, growth prospects, and valuations [3] AbbVie Overview - AbbVie's flagship drug, Humira, has lost patent protection, leading to significant sales erosion due to biosimilar competition, particularly in 2024 and expected to worsen in 2025 [4] - The acquisition of Allergan for $63 billion has diversified AbbVie's product offerings and reduced reliance on Humira [4] - AbbVie's immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, are performing well, particularly in treating inflammatory bowel diseases, helping to offset Humira's declining sales [5] - AbbVie has a robust oncology portfolio with drugs like Imbruvica and Venclexta, with recent label expansions increasing the patient population for Venclexta [6] - The approval of Vyalev for advanced Parkinson's disease in October 2024 further enhances AbbVie's portfolio [6] - AbbVie is pursuing promising R&D initiatives, including next-generation immunology approaches and innovative therapies for neuropsychiatric disorders, alongside active M&A strategies [7] - As of March 31, 2025, AbbVie reported $64.5 billion in long-term debt and $5.4 billion in short-term obligations, with cash and equivalents around $5.2 billion [8] Bristol Myers Squibb Overview - BMY's Growth Portfolio, including drugs like Reblozyl and Opdualag, has stabilized revenue amid generic competition for legacy drugs [9][10] - Reblozyl has shown strong performance since its approval, contributing significantly to revenue growth [10] - Opdivo continues to gain momentum with consistent label expansions, and recent FDA approvals for new drugs like Cobenfy broaden BMY's portfolio [11][12] - Despite new drug launches, BMY faces revenue pressure from legacy drugs, which saw a 20% decline in the first quarter due to generic competition [13] - BMY's long-term debt stood at $46.1 billion as of March 31, 2025, with cash and equivalents of $12.1 billion [14] Financial Estimates and Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie's 2025 sales indicates a 6.6% year-over-year increase, with EPS expected to improve by 20.65, although recent estimates have declined [15] - For BMY, the 2025 sales estimate suggests a 4.13% decrease, while EPS is projected to increase by 487.83%, influenced by low EPS figures in 2024 [17] - Year-to-date, ABBV shares have gained 11.8%, while BMY shares have decreased by 11.2%, compared to a 1.6% gain in the large-cap pharma industry [18] - In terms of valuation, ABBV trades at 14.76X forward earnings, slightly higher than BMY's 7.60X, while the industry average is 15.16X [19] - BMY offers a higher dividend yield of 5.20% compared to ABBV's 3.4%, which is attractive for investors [22] Investment Outlook - Both companies are considered safe investments in the biopharma sector, but selecting one over the other is complex due to their current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [23] - AbbVie's diverse portfolio and strong performance from its immunology drugs position it favorably despite challenges from declining Humira sales [24] - BMY's efforts to counteract revenue declines from legacy drugs through new approvals and acquisitions are commendable, but challenges remain for 2025 [25]

Core Viewpoint - ECARX Holdings Inc. has entered into a global strategic partnership with Samsung Group to enhance the commercialization of automotive intelligence technologies and create a sustainable open technology ecosystem [1][2] Group 1: Partnership Details - The partnership aims to leverage the complementary strengths of both companies in technological innovation and engineering [2] - Focus areas include the integration of Samsung's advanced technologies, such as next-generation displays and high-speed memory, into ECARX's product offerings [2] - The collaboration will develop intelligent solutions for vehicles, smartphones, wearables, robots, and other connected devices, diversifying ECARX's applications beyond automotive intelligence [2] Group 2: Achievements and Innovations - ECARX and Samsung have successfully integrated Samsung's display products into multiple intelligent cockpit systems for automotive clients [3] - The companies have pioneered the integration of automotive-grade LPDDR5 memory in ECARX's Antora® computing platform and Skyland® intelligent driving solution, which are deployed in various vehicles globally [3] Group 3: Strategic Vision - Ziyu Shen, Chairman and CEO of ECARX, emphasized that deepening the partnership with Samsung is a significant milestone in the company's global strategy, providing opportunities for new growth drivers [4] - The strategy aims to enhance the product matrix of integrated, cost-effective solutions for the automotive market while also tapping into robotics and AI applications [4] Group 4: Company Overview - ECARX is a global automotive technology provider specializing in turnkey solutions for next-generation smart vehicles, including system on a chip (SoC) and central computing platforms [5] - Founded in 2017 and listed on Nasdaq in 2022, ECARX has over 1,800 employees across 12 major locations and its products are present in over 8.7 million vehicles worldwide [6]

Core Viewpoint - The healthcare industry, with annual expenditures of $4.9 trillion in the U.S., presents significant opportunities for dividend investing through quality companies that exhibit consistent growth and strong financial health [1][4]. Group 1: Medtronic - Medtronic is a leading healthcare technology company with a focus on cardiovascular, diabetes, medical-surgical, and neuroscience products, conducting over 190 active clinical trials and holding 43,000 active patents [4][6]. - The company has a history of 47 consecutive annual dividend increases and is on track to become a Dividend King upon its 50th increase, currently yielding 3.2% [5][6]. - Analysts project Medtronic's earnings to grow by 6% to 7% annually over the next three to five years, supported by strategic moves such as spinning off its diabetes business [6][5]. Group 2: AbbVie - AbbVie is a pharmaceutical giant known for its successful drug Humira and has effectively transitioned post-patent expiration, with new drugs Rinvoq and Skyrizi showing promise [8][10]. - The company has achieved 53 consecutive dividend increases since its 2013 spin-off from Abbott Laboratories, currently yielding 3.5% and averaging a 7.7% increase in dividends over the past five years [9][10]. - Analysts expect AbbVie to generate nearly $60 billion in revenue this year, with long-term earnings growth projected at 13% annually, highlighting its strong product development capabilities [10][9]. Group 3: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson is a highly recognized healthcare company that spun off its consumer segment in 2023 to focus on pharmaceuticals and medical devices [11][12]. - The company boasts an AAA credit rating and has maintained 62 consecutive years of dividend payments and increases [12][13]. - Analysts forecast earnings growth of just over 6% annually for the next three to five years, with a dividend payout ratio of only 50% of estimated earnings for 2025, starting with a yield of 3.3% [13][12].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between the Hong Kong Civil Aviation Department and Thales has successfully deployed an innovative approach spacing tool (AST) that optimizes aircraft approach intervals, leading to more efficient and sustainable air traffic management [1][3]. Group 1: Benefits of the Approach Spacing Tool - The AST is expected to reduce fuel consumption by over 16,500 tons and carbon dioxide emissions by 52,000 tons annually [4]. - The tool enhances airport capacity by increasing runway throughput, improves safety through precise arrival sequencing, and reduces environmental impact by optimizing approach trajectories [3][4]. - The deployment of the AST has been recognized with the CANSO 2023 Air Traffic Management Award in the "Green Sky" category, highlighting its contribution to sustainable aviation [4]. Group 2: Integration and Functionality - The AST has been fully integrated with Thales' TopSky-ATC air traffic control solution, supporting air navigation service providers globally [3]. - It calculates optimal intervals for aircraft during the descent phase based on real-time factors such as weather conditions, aircraft performance, and runway capacity [3]. - The graphical interface provided by the tool allows air traffic controllers to monitor each aircraft's position relative to its ideal flight path, ensuring accuracy and efficiency in flight sequencing [3]. Group 3: Commitment to Sustainability - The Hong Kong Civil Aviation Department emphasizes environmental protection in all aspects of aviation services and operations, aiming to build a safe, efficient, and sustainable air transport system [4]. - Thales is committed to redefining the future of aviation by developing technologies that enhance safety, efficiency, and sustainability in air travel [5][6].

Core Insights - Delta Air Lines reported strong Q2 results, exceeding EPS expectations and announcing a dividend increase, positively impacting investor sentiment [1][2][4] Financial Performance - Delta's Q2 EPS was $2.10, surpassing expectations of $2.04 by nearly 3%, although it declined from $2.36 in the previous year [2] - Q2 operating revenue reached $16.64 billion, exceeding estimates by approximately 3% but slightly down from $16.65 billion a year ago [2] - The company achieved an operating margin of 12.6% during Q2 [12] Revenue Streams - Revenue from premium cabin sales increased by 5%, while loyalty program revenue surged by 8% [3] - Delta received $2 billion from its partnership with American Express, which serves as the exclusive credit card issuer for Delta SkyMiles [3] Dividend Announcement - Delta increased its quarterly dividend by over 25%, raising it from $0.15 to approximately $0.19 per share, with the first payment scheduled for August 21 [4] Guidance and Market Position - Delta reaffirmed its full-year guidance for fiscal 2025 EPS at $5.25-$6.25, above the Zacks Consensus of $5.11, and free cash flow expectations of $3-$4 billion [7] - Despite a 7% decline year-to-date, Delta's stock has increased by 95% over the last three years, outperforming American Airlines [8][9] Valuation Metrics - Delta's stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 9.9X, significantly below the benchmark's 24.2X and the industry average of 13.9X [10] - The stock also trades at 0.5X forward sales, in line with the industry average, compared to the S&P 500's 5.4X [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a pretax income of $1.8 billion, with earnings of $2.1 per share and an operating margin of 13.2% [7][27] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $700 million, bringing year-to-date free cash flow to $2 billion [7][27] - A 25% increase in the quarterly dividend was announced, reflecting strong cash generation [7][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - June revenue increased approximately 1% year-over-year to $15.5 billion, with premium revenue growing 5% [18][19] - Loyalty revenue grew 8%, with significant engagement from millennial and Gen Z segments [19][20] - Cargo revenue increased by 7% year-over-year, while MRO revenue accelerated to 29% growth [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall demand for air travel remains stable compared to last year, with softness primarily in the main cabin during off-peak periods [9][22] - Corporate revenue improved modestly year-over-year, with Delta's share premium at historic highs [21] - International margins have structurally improved, reflecting the success of strategic investments [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on elevating its airline status, expanding its global footprint, and investing in technology [13][16] - New partnerships, such as the equity stake in WestJet and collaboration with Indigo, are aimed at enhancing international growth potential [15] - The company is adjusting capacity to match demand and managing costs to deliver strong earnings and free cash flow [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the stability of the U.S. economy and anticipated improvements in consumer and corporate confidence [10][12] - The company expects earnings per share for the full year to be between $5.25 and $6.25, with free cash flow projected at $3 billion to $4 billion [12][31] - Management noted that while business travel has returned, there is still potential for growth as the economy stabilizes [47][68] Other Important Information - The company is leveraging AI for revenue optimization through partnerships with technology firms [16][60] - The operational performance has been strong despite challenges from severe weather, with a focus on efficiency across operations [27][91] - The company has a fully funded pension and significant unencumbered assets, enhancing its financial stability [28][101] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on industry capacity in 3Q and 4Q? - Management noted a significant reduction in industry capacity, with domestic industry seats down close to 1% by September, indicating a positive adjustment to restore profitability [35][36] Question: How is cabin segmentation being received? - Management confirmed that there is strong demand for premium cabins, and they are focused on providing more choices and pricing options to customers [37][42] Question: What is the outlook for corporate demand post-Labor Day? - Management indicated that most sectors are expected to maintain or increase spending, with banking and technology showing favorable trends [62] Question: How do tariffs impact aircraft deliveries? - Management stated they do not plan on paying tariffs for aircraft deliveries and are encouraged by ongoing discussions in Washington [54] Question: What is the status of AI and revenue management solutions? - The company is currently testing AI solutions on about 3% of its domestic network, aiming for 20% by year-end, and is optimistic about the results [60] Question: How is the booking curve changing? - Management observed that advanced bookings are improving, with the highest cash sales day recorded in July, indicating a positive trend [69][70]

2.【Hugging Face开源小参数模型SmolLM3】北京时间7月9日凌晨，Hugging Face首席执行官克莱门特·德朗 格（Clement Delangue）宣布，Hugging Face发布并开源小参数模型SmolLM3。拥有128k上下文窗口；支持 英语、法语、西班牙语、德语等6种语言；支持深度思考和非思考双推理模式。（财联社） 3.【浙江大学发布高精准基因组设计AI模型】浙江大学郭国骥教授团队开发出一款用于基因组预测设计的深度学 习AI模型"女娲CE"，能够以超过90%的准确率预测基因组调控区域发生突变之后带来的表型变化，并结合疾病 表型设计出相应的治疗位点。相关成果已发表于国际学术期刊《细胞》。 （财联社） 4.【Hugging Face 桌面机器人 Reachy Mini 开订：长相呆萌，支持超 170 万个 AI 模型】据外媒TechCrunch 报道，Hugging Face旗下最新桌面机器人Reachy Mini的订单现已正式开放，开发者现在已可动手组装与测试。 Reachy Mini将推出两个版本。无线版名为Reachy Mini Wireless，内置Raspberry 5 微 ...

Group 1: Veo 3 Upgrade - The Google Veo 3 upgrade allows audio and video generation from a single image, maintaining high consistency across multiple angles [1] - The new feature is implemented through the Flow platform's "Frames to Video" option, enhancing camera movement capabilities, although the Gemini Veo3 entry is currently unavailable [1] - User tests indicate natural expressions and effective performances, marking a significant breakthrough in AI storytelling applicable in advertising and animation [1] Group 2: Hugging Face 3B Model - Hugging Face has released the open-source 3B parameter model SmolLM3, outperforming Llama-3.2-3B and Qwen2.5-3B, supporting a 128K context window and six languages [2] - The model features a dual-mode system allowing users to switch between deep thinking and non-thinking modes [2] - It employs a three-stage mixed training strategy, trained on 11.2 trillion tokens, with all technical details, including architecture and data mixing methods, made available [2] Group 3: Kunlun Wanwei Skywork-R1V 3.0 - Kunlun Wanwei has open-sourced the Skywork-R1V 3.0 multimodal model, achieving a score of 142 in high school mathematics and 76 in MMMU evaluation, surpassing some closed-source models [3] - The model utilizes a reinforcement learning strategy (GRPO) and key entropy-driven mechanisms, achieving high performance with only 12,000 supervised samples and 13,000 reinforcement learning samples [3] - It excels in physical reasoning, logical reasoning, and mathematical problem-solving, setting a new performance benchmark for open-source models and demonstrating cross-disciplinary generalization capabilities [3] Group 4: Vidu Q1 Video Creation - Vidu Q1's multi-reference video feature allows users to upload up to seven reference images, enabling strong character consistency and zero storyboard video generation [4] - Users can combine multiple subjects with simple prompts, with clarity upgraded to 1080P, and support for character material storage for repeated use [5] - Test results show it is suitable for creating multi-character animation trailers, supporting frame extraction and quality enhancement, reducing video production costs to less than 0.9 yuan per video [5] Group 5: VIVO BlueLM-2.5-3B Model - VIVO has launched the BlueLM-2.5-3B edge multimodal model, which excels in over 20 evaluations and supports GUI interface understanding [6] - The model allows flexible switching between long and short thinking modes, introducing a thinking budget control mechanism to optimize reasoning depth and computational cost [6] - It employs a sophisticated structure (ViT+Adapter+LLM) and a four-stage pre-training strategy, enhancing efficiency and mitigating the text capability forgetting issue in multimodal models [6] Group 6: DeepSeek-R1 System - The X-Masters system, developed by Shanghai Jiao Tong University and DeepMind Technology, has achieved a score of 32.1 in the "Human Last Exam" (HLE), surpassing OpenAI and Google [7] - The system is built on the DeepSeek-R1 model, enabling smooth transitions between internal reasoning and external tool usage, using code as an interactive language [7] - X-Masters employs a decentralized-stacked multi-agent workflow, enhancing reasoning breadth and depth through collaboration among solvers, critics, rewriters, and selectors, with the solution fully open-sourced [7] Group 7: Zhihui Jun's Acquisition - Zhihui Jun's Zhiyuan Robot has acquired control of the listed company Shuangwei New Materials for 2.1 billion yuan, aiming for a 63.62%-66.99% stake [8] - Following the acquisition, Shuangwei New Materials' stock resumed trading with a limit-up, reaching a market value of 3.77 billion yuan, with the actual controller changing to Zhiyuan CEO Deng Taihua and core team members including "Zhihui Jun" Peng Zhihui [8] - This acquisition, conducted through "agreement transfer + active invitation," is seen as a landmark case for new productivity enterprises in A-shares following the implementation of national policies [8] Group 8: AI Model Usage Trends - In the first half of 2025, the Gemini series models captured nearly half of the large model API market, with Google leading at 43.1%, followed by DeepSeek and Anthropic at 19.6% and 18.4% respectively [9] - DeepSeek V3 has maintained a high user retention rate since its launch, ranking among the top five in usage, while OpenAI's model usage has fluctuated significantly [9] - The competitive landscape shows differentiation: Claude-Sonnet-4 leads in programming (44.5%), Gemini-2.0-Flash excels in translation, GPT-4o leads in marketing (32.5%), and role-playing remains highly fragmented [9] Group 9: AI User Trends - A report by Menlo Ventures indicates that there are 1.8 billion AI users globally, with a low paid user rate of only 3%, and a high student usage rate of 85%, while parents are becoming heavy users [10] - AI is primarily used for email writing (19%), researching topics of interest (18%), and managing to-do lists (18%), with no single task dependency exceeding one-fifth [10] - The next 18-24 months are expected to see six major trends in AI: rise of vertical tools, complete process automation, multi-person collaboration, explosion of voice AI, physical AI in households, and diversification of business models [10]

Core Insights - The 2025 International Low Altitude Economy Expo will take place from July 23 to 26 in Shanghai, featuring an exhibition area of 60,000 square meters and nearly 300 exhibitors, with an expected attendance of over 50,000 visitors [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The expo will showcase over 19 global product launches and 25 domestic product launches, focusing on cutting-edge products in the low altitude economy sector, including drones and eVTOLs [3]. - Key products include the world's first 7-seat, 3-ton eVTOL flying car platform, large fixed-wing drones, hydrogen drones, and various aviation systems [3][5]. Group 2: Featured Products - The Vector5 eVTOL, developed by Weixin Aerospace Technology, will be globally launched at the expo, designed for medical rescue and search scenarios with advanced safety features [5]. - The AI-101, a large fixed-wing intelligent drone, boasts a takeoff distance of approximately 40 meters and a cruising speed of 180 km/h, suitable for short-distance logistics and agricultural applications [7][9]. - The RC-3 Seabee amphibious aircraft, known for its reliability and versatility, will also be showcased, highlighting its applications in regional aviation and emergency rescue [9][11]. Group 3: Innovations and Technologies - The expo will feature the M1 eVTOL, which aims to reduce urban commuting time to 15-30 minutes, and the Skylar-VE25-100 aircraft for various low altitude applications [11]. - New technologies such as a 100KW aviation range extender and the H100 hydrogen drone, capable of operating in extreme temperatures, will be presented, addressing current limitations in electric propulsion systems [11][13]. - Infrastructure developments, including a vertical takeoff and landing platform and a flight simulator utilizing VR/XR technology for pilot training, will also be highlighted [13]. Group 4: Industry Participation - Major companies such as DJI, Postal Express, and various traditional aviation industry leaders will participate in the expo, showcasing their contributions to the low altitude economy [13].