Core Insights - The altcoin market is currently underperforming, but analysts at Wintermute believe it could recover if certain conditions are met [1][3] - The primary issue is that new investments are primarily flowing into custodial vehicles like ETFs, limiting liquidity and reducing altcoin rally durations by 66% compared to previous years [2] - A potential altcoin recovery hinges on the expansion of ETF and Digital Asset Treasury mandates to include more altcoins [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Altcoins have not met traders' expectations in recent years, with Bitcoin typically leading rallies, but this pattern has not occurred despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $126,000 [3] - Institutional investors are increasingly dominating crypto trading, focusing on long-term investments and being less reactive to short-term price changes, which has hindered altcoin rotations [4] Group 2: Potential Catalysts for Recovery - A new Bitcoin rally could create a wealth effect that benefits altcoins, especially following the passing of the Clarity Act, which aims to regulate the $3.1 trillion crypto industry [5] - The least likely catalyst for an altcoin upswing is the return of retail investors to the crypto market, as they are now more attracted to investments in public companies involved in cutting-edge technologies like AI, which offer similar risk and return profiles [6]

Core Insights - Analysts predict that 2026 could be a breakout year for digital assets, driven by a crypto-friendly environment and institutional adoption, despite Bitcoin experiencing its first annual decline since 2022 [1] - Jesse Eckel, a crypto YouTuber, believes that 2026 will be the anticipated bull run and alt season that was expected in 2025 [2] Market Predictions - Eckel acknowledges his previous predictions for 2025 were incorrect, particularly regarding an expected alt season, which did not materialize due to market turmoil [2] - He suggests that the 2025 rally was not driven by liquidity but rather by narrative and institutional flows, differing from past cycles [3] - By summer 2026, Eckel expects a significant market reversal as the recognition of the four-year cycle's demise leads to a pricing in of previously ignored positive news [3] Price Targets - Bitcoin's cycle peak forecast has been raised to a range of $170,000 to $250,000, while Ethereum's target remains at $10,000 to $20,000 [4] Catalysts for 2026 Bull Market - The growth of stablecoins is expected to surpass that of 2025, with Wall Street recognizing them as a major success story in crypto [5] - AI-related crypto projects are predicted to lead alt season gains, with at least one project expected to exceed a $100 billion market cap [5] - Regulatory clarity from a market structure bill is anticipated to benefit altcoins more than Bitcoin, opening the door for ICOs and token launches [5] - Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows are expected to double in 2026, following suppressed flows in 2025 [5] - An altcoin ETF breakthrough is anticipated, with at least one altcoin ETF gaining traction and sparking speculation [5] - Eckel predicts at least three rate cuts in 2026, following three cuts in late 2025 [5] - A stimulus push from the administration is expected as midterms approach, potentially including stimulus checks [5]

Group 1 - Coinbase reports a significant increase in global liquidity as December begins, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut rising to 92% by December 4, which may support a rebound in risk assets [1] - The custom global M2 money supply index from Coinbase indicates a recovery trend extending into late 2025, suggesting that a softer dollar environment could enhance broader market momentum [1][3] - The report highlights that Bitcoin fell more than three standard deviations below its 90-day trend in November, while US equities remained closer to their norms, indicating potential undervaluation of Bitcoin [3][4] Group 2 - Long-term holders of Bitcoin exhibited a rare period of coin distribution, and digital asset products traded below net asset value for the first time this year, signaling a potential recovery in December [4] - Analyst Ted Pillows notes that the US 10-year bond yield is poised for its largest weekly gain since June 2025, with yields above 4%, which may not bode well for risk-on assets despite anticipated Fed rate cuts [4] - Data from Altcoin Vector indicates a divergence between stablecoin dominance and altcoin performance, with signs of stablecoin strength fatigue and altcoins holding firm, suggesting a possible market shift back to higher-risk assets once Bitcoin stabilizes [5][6]

Market Overview - The crypto market is experiencing "extreme fear" following a sell-off, with Bitcoin trading around $87,000, down from a high of $92,350 last week, indicating a lack of recovery and eroded investor confidence [1] - The altcoin market is also struggling, with several tokens, particularly privacy coins, posting losses of over 5% in the last 24 hours [2] Performance Metrics - Bitcoin has retraced almost the entire rally from November 21-28, underperforming U.S. equities, which saw the Nasdaq Composite Index rise by 6.6% during the same period [2] - Open interest in futures tied to Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP has declined by as much as 6% in the past 24 hours, reflecting diminished investor confidence [5] Volatility and Derivatives - Bitcoin's 90-day annualized basis has collapsed to cycle lows of around 4%-5%, while Ether's basis is nearing 3%-4%, indicating a significant drop in futures versus spot prices [5] - The 30-day implied volatility index for Bitcoin is rising relative to Wall Street's VIX index, suggesting heightened uncertainty in the crypto market [5] Altcoin Performance - The altcoin market continues to lag, with Ether and XRP each sliding by approximately 0.6% in 24 hours, while Bitcoin posted a slight gain of 0.75% [5] - Privacy coins, particularly Zcash (ZEC), have been severely impacted, with an 8% decline in the last 24 hours and a total drop of 33% over the past week [5] DeFi Interest - The "altcoin season" indicator remains stagnant at 24/100, indicating a preference for Bitcoin and select DeFi tokens despite the overall market decline [5] - SKY, formerly MKR, saw a 6.7% increase after announcing token buybacks, while the USDS token's market cap grew from $7.6 billion to $9.5 billion in two months, attracting DeFi interest [5]

Market Outlook - The altcoin and Bitcoin bull market is still expected [1] - The market is likely to move upwards in the future [1] Promotional Offer - OKX offers a promotion to earn up to €1,000 in $BTC before December 12th [1] - The €1,000 in $BTC could increase significantly in value [1] Actionable Steps - Join @OKXDutch before December 12th to participate [1]

随着对美国政府亲加密立场的热情消退和市场避险情绪加剧，比特币正面临严峻考验，整个加密货币市场的熊市似乎正在深化。 作为市值最高的加密货币，比特币价格于周日跌破93714美元，完全回吐今年以来的所有涨幅。这一价格水平已低于其2024年底的收盘价，意味着 今年早些时候一度超过30%的年度涨幅已被"全部抹去"。 近期科技股的回调也导致了市场整体风险偏好的下降。Nansen的高级研究分析师Jake Kennis表示，此次抛售是"长期持有者获利了结、机构资金外 流、宏观不确定性以及杠杆多头被清算的合流"。他补充说，在经历了一段长时间的盘整后，市场已暂时选择了下行方向。 山寨币跌幅更甚 市场普遍的悲观情绪正在加剧抛售。Matthew Hougan表示，"加密货币散户的情绪相当负面"，许多人为了避免再次经历50%的大幅回调而选择提 前离场。这种悲观情绪在波动性更高的小型代币（即"山寨币"）市场中表现得更为淋漓尽致。 据报道，一个追踪前100大数字资产中后50名的MarketVector指数今年已下跌约60%。专注于去中心化金融的公司Ergonia的研究总监Chris Newhouse也观察到，市场普遍对"资本部署持怀疑态度 ...

Core Insights - The anticipated altcoin season is unlikely to materialize in 2025 or 2026, indicating a significant shift in crypto market sentiment [1][2] - Liquidity and institutional focus have shifted away from altcoins, leading to weaker price action and limited investor attention [1][5] Market Conditions - The "Black Swan" event on October 11 severely impacted the altcoin market, exacerbating an already fragile environment with declining VC funding for early-stage Web3 projects [2] - Weekly trading volume across centralized exchanges has decreased by 20–40%, reflecting a broader market caution and risk aversion among large capital [3] Current Market Sentiment - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 30, indicating a prevailing sense of doubt in the market cycle [3] - The market requires time to recover, and traders are advised to proceed with discipline [4] Investment Opportunities - Only a few projects with real-world use cases, such as stablecoins and payment infrastructure, may still be viable, although many are unlikely to issue tokens [4] - Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by approximately $800 billion in this cycle, leaving retail investors at a disadvantage [5] Shift in Investor Behavior - Korean retail traders, previously known for driving altcoin speculation, are now focusing on crypto-related equities, which have outperformed Bitcoin this year [5][6]

Core Insights - October typically brings optimism for the crypto market, but current indicators suggest a shift towards Bitcoin season, with Bitcoin trading slightly above $105,000 after a 13% decline in a week [1] Market Performance - BNB is trading at approximately $1,067, down 10% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $7.1 billion, which is up 33% [2] - Sui is priced around $2.38, down 11%, with a volume of $2.35 billion, reflecting an 80% increase [2] - Solana is trading near $179, down 7%, with a volume of $12 billion, which is up 30% [2] Trading Dynamics - BNB's price decline alongside increased volume indicates larger orders being executed into existing demand, with negative funding and basis compression suggesting forced positioning rather than steady accumulation [2] - Sui's significant volume increase of 80% indicates rapid repositioning from short-term traders after a period of crowded long positions [4] - Solana's price drop, despite higher trading volume, points to risk rotation rather than renewed interest, as recent activity is attributed to traders unwinding leveraged positions [6][7] Market Behavior - Intraday trading ranges widened and then narrowed, indicating early attempts at market absorption, with a focus on patience near previous lows [5] - The current market phase is characterized by flow-driven sessions, with large transfers between spot and derivatives venues indicating rebalancing rather than new accumulation [7] - A practical approach suggests starting with liquidity and identifying depth clusters for entry points, rather than making predictions [8]

Event Overview - BNB Smart Chain Altcoin Trading Festival offers two promotions [1] - Total prize pool of 250,000 USDC in token vouchers is available [1] Promotion Details - The promotion encourages trading of altcoins on the BNB Smart Chain [1]

Market Overview - The crypto market saw a boost with Bitcoin (BTC) rising by 2.9% and Ether (ETH) by 3.1%, while altcoins experienced double-digit gains, indicating a potential "altcoin season" [1] - ZEC reached its highest level since May 2022, and several DeFi tokens also showed upward movement [1] - The market uptick coincided with a U.S. government shutdown, which has led to record high gold prices and a sell-off in the dollar [2] Derivatives Positioning - The BTC futures market shows a bullish bias with open interest at approximately $31.69 billion, indicating strong trader engagement, particularly on Binance with $13.19 billion [3] - The 3-month annualized basis remains between 6% and 7%, suggesting robust yield from basis trades [3] - The BTC options market presents a mixed sentiment; while the 25 Delta Skew for short-term options is low, indicating hedging against downside risk, the Put/Call Volume shows 63.54% of total volume in calls, reflecting bullish speculation [3] - Positive funding rates are observed across major exchanges, with Deribit seeing an annualized funding rate of 17%, indicating strong demand for leveraged long positions [3] - Coinglass data reports $644 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a split of 38% longs and 62% shorts, highlighting significant market activity [3]