Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Aier Eye Hospital with a 12-month target price of Rmb14, indicating a potential upside of 12.9% from the current price of Rmb12.4 [10][8]. Core Insights - Aier Eye Hospital is experiencing improvements in refractive surgery pricing due to new technologies, with a forecast of double-digit revenue growth for 2025 [2][7]. - The company anticipates a recovery in cataract surgery revenue growth to double digits in the second half of 2025, following price cuts of approximately 8-10% since the second half of 2024 [9][7]. - The overall ophthalmology market in China is expected to grow at a 12% CAGR from 2020 to 2030, driven by increased service upgrades and market penetration [7]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - Growth in refractive surgeries slowed in April and May after a busy first quarter, but June showed improvement due to an increase in average selling prices (ASP) from new technologies [3]. - Cataract surgeries faced volume declines due to tightening reimbursement policies, while optometry performance remained moderate [3]. Refractive Surgery Pricing - New technologies such as SMILE 4.0 and SMILE pro have been launched, with SMILE 4.0 contributing 12% of refractive surgery revenue in Q1 2025 [3][6]. - The ASP for SMILE 4.0 is around Rmb18,800, with approximately 100 installations [3]. Cataract Surgery Outlook - The company expects cataract surgery revenue growth to recover to double digits in H2 2025, as the lower prices from H2 2024 are now reflected [9]. - Premium cataract surgeries accounted for 45%-50% of total cataract surgeries as of Q1 2025, with 15% of revenue coming from femtosecond laser-assisted surgeries [9]. Optometry Services - Recent pricing pressure on OK lenses was noted, particularly after public hospitals in Beijing reduced prices by 50% [9]. - The annualized cost for OK lenses is around Rmb10,000, while defocal lenses cost only Rmb2,000 to Rmb3,000 [9]. Overseas Expansion - Aier Eye Hospital is focusing on expanding its presence in South America [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aier Eye Hospital Group is Underweight [5][68]. Core Views - The industry view is considered Attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5][68]. - Aier Eye Hospital Group has experienced solid year-to-date growth in the refractory segment, with over 20% growth driven by improved average selling prices (ASP) and volume [3][8]. - The company plans to upgrade more SMILE 4.0 and Wavelight Plus equipment and launch ICL V5 to enhance its technology lead and drive ASP growth [3][8]. Summary by Sections Refractory Segment - The refractory segment has shown significant growth, with a 20%+ increase in 1Q25, attributed to ASP improvements and a recovery in end-demand [3][8]. - ICL procedures have also reversed the declining trend seen in 2024, contributing positively to year-over-year growth [3]. Cataract Segment - The cataract segment experienced single-digit percentage growth in 1Q25, with volume growth higher year-over-year, although blended prices continued to decline due to value-based pricing (VBP) expansion for intraocular lenses (IOLs) [4][8]. - Multi-focal lenses, which are fully paid out-of-pocket, have shown faster year-over-year growth compared to bifocal lenses, which are under VBP [4]. Financial Metrics - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, the estimated revenue is Rmb22,963 million, with an EPS of Rmb0.45 [5]. - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 29.1 and a return on equity (ROE) of 20.2% for the same period [5]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Aier Eye Hospital Group is Rmb122,575 million, with an average daily trading value of Rmb1,168 million [5]. - The stock price as of May 7, 2025, is Rmb13.14, with a price target set at Rmb11.50, indicating a potential downside of 12% [5].