Semi design services and IP solutions
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芯原股份_ 2025 年四季度新订单环比增长 57%;AI 与数据处理项目扩张;买入评级-VeriSilicon (.SS)_ New orders at +57% QoQ in 4Q25; AI and data processing projects in expansion; Buy
2025-12-31 16:02
Summary of VeriSilicon Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: VeriSilicon (688521.SS) - **Industry**: Semiconductor and IP solutions Key Points New Orders and Revenue Growth - New orders in 4Q25 reached a historical high of Rmb2.5 billion, representing a **57% increase QoQ** and **130% YoY** growth, driven by strong demand in AI and data processing projects [1][2] - In 3Q25, new orders grew **35% QoQ** to Rmb1.6 billion, with revenues growing **119% QoQ** [1] AI and Data Processing Contribution - Contribution from AI computing projects increased to **84%** in 4Q25, up from **65%** in 3Q25 [2] - Data processing projects contributed **76%** in 4Q25, with cloud projects remaining the major contributor [2] Earnings Revision - Earnings for 2026E-2030E revised down by **8% to 14%** due to lower revenue contributions from higher-margin semi design services and IP solutions [3] - Gross margin (GM) is expected to decrease by **0.3 to 1.9 percentage points** in the same period due to product mix changes [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025E revised to Rmb3.56 billion, down from Rmb3.57 billion, and for 2026E to Rmb4.94 billion, down from Rmb5.27 billion [7] - Net income projections for 2026E revised down to Rmb722 million from Rmb788 million, reflecting an **8% decrease** [7] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month target price is revised down to Rmb243 from Rmb284, implying an **upside of 80%** based on a **60x P/E** multiple for 2029E earnings [11][15] - The target price reflects robust growth potential driven by generative AI demand [11] Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected technology development, higher talent acquisition costs, and weaker customer spending on IP and new chipset projects [12] Market Position - VeriSilicon is positioned as a leading semi IP and turnkey solution provider, benefiting from the generative AI trend [1][2] Conclusion - The company maintains a **Buy** rating, supported by strong order momentum and growth opportunities in AI and data processing sectors [1][11]