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Can StoneCo's Software Divestment Unlock MSMB-Focused Growth?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-24 17:06
Core Insights - StoneCo Ltd. is strategically divesting a significant portion of its software segment, which accounts for 79% of its software segment revenues in 2024, to focus on core financial services and micro, small, and medium businesses (MSMB) [1][9] Group 1: Strategic Moves - The proposed sale of Linx and related software assets to TOTVS for R$3.41 billion has been agreed upon, alongside the sale of SimplesVet to PetLove for R$140 million [2] - This divestiture is expected to enhance operating efficiency and profit margins as StoneCo aims to become Brazil's leading platform for MSMBs [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, StoneCo's MSMB total payment volume (TPV) increased by 17% year over year to R$119.5 billion, driven by effective repricing efforts and expanding product adoption [3][9] - The client base for MSMBs grew by 17% to 4.3 million active clients [3] Group 3: Growth Strategies - The bundling strategy has proven successful, with clients using three or more products increasing to 38%, up from 26% a year ago, indicating effective cross-selling of integrated payments, credit, and banking services [4] - The banking segment is also expanding rapidly, with total retail deposits rising by 38% to R$8.3 billion [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The PIX instant payment system has become a significant monetization lever, with transaction volumes increasing by 95% year over year, enhancing client deposits and engagement [5] - StoneCo projects MSMB TPV to exceed R$670 billion by 2027, reflecting a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 levels [5] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - PagSeguro Digital Ltd. reported that MSMB TPV grew by 11.2% year over year to R$95.2 billion, with a focus on higher-value MSMBs [6] - MercadoLibre's Mercado Pago saw TPV rise by 43% year over year to $58.3 billion, with a 30%+ increase in monthly fintech users [7] Group 6: Stock Performance and Valuation - StoneCo's shares have surged by 76.5% year to date, outperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS suggests a year-over-year growth of 10.4%, while the estimate for 2026 indicates a 16.1% increase [10] - StoneCo's shares are currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 8.66X, significantly below the industry average of 40.07X, indicating a potentially undervalued position [12]