Global Research ab 19 December 2025 China Solar Industry China solar biweekly: New round of self- discipline to impact supply Polysilicon price flat at Rmb52/kg According to PV InfoLink, the price of monograde polysilicon was unchanged WoW at Rmb52/kg in the week starting 15 December. The quotation price was lifted to above Rmb65/kg, but with a limited number of transactions. Even though the inventory was largely flat WoW at 25kt, polysilicon makers' decision to raise prices at this time seems to be primari ...

Summary of China Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Solar Industry - **Current Situation**: Demand remains sluggish in December 2025, with various components of the solar supply chain showing mixed performance Key Points Polysilicon Market - **Price Stability**: The price of monograde polysilicon remained flat at Rmb52/kg as of December 1, 2025, with a 4% increase in inventory levels to 29.1kt week-over-week [2][3] - **Production Forecast**: Monthly polysilicon production is expected to increase by 4% month-over-month to below 120kt (52GW) in December due to mild production resumption [2] Wafer Market - **Price Decline**: N-type wafer prices fell by 1.7% to Rmb1.18/pc for M10 and 3.2% to Rmb1.50/pc for G12 week-over-week [3] - **Cell Prices**: TOPcon cell prices remained unchanged at Rmb0.285/W for both M10 and G12 [3] - **Module Prices**: Module prices also remained stable at Rmb0.69/W for TOPcon and Rmb0.76/W for back contact [3] - **Production Outlook**: December module production is projected to decline by 15% month-over-month to 43GW [3] Solar Glass Market - **Price Decrease**: Solar glass prices decreased by 2.0% for 2.0mm and 1.3% for 3.2mm week-over-week, now at Rmb12.25/sqm and Rmb19.25/sqm respectively [4] - **Inventory Increase**: Inventory levels increased by 5.9% week-over-week to 31.07 days [4] Installation and Export Data - **Installation Growth**: As of October 2025, total solar installation reached 252.9GW, marking a 39% year-over-year increase. However, October installations were down 38% year-over-year to 12.6GW despite a 30% month-over-month increase [5] - **Export Performance**: Solar cell and module exports totaled US$2.3 billion in October, up 4% year-over-year but down 19% month-over-month. The implied shipment volume was 23.6GW, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase but a 20% month-over-month decline [5] - **Inverter Exports**: Solar inverter export value reached US$0.7 billion in October, up 3% year-over-year but down 5% month-over-month, with a significant drop in monthly export volume of 35% year-over-year and 16% month-over-month [5] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: - Slower-than-expected growth in installed domestic renewable energy capacity - Larger-than-expected tariff cuts for renewable energy projects - Increased competition from other power resources due to future power reforms [22] - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected growth in installed domestic renewable energy capacity - Smaller-than-expected tariff cuts for renewable energy projects - Market share gains for solar energy compared to other power resources under future reforms [23] Conclusion The China solar industry is currently facing challenges with sluggish demand and price stability across various components. However, there are potential growth opportunities if domestic capacity increases and tariffs remain favorable. The market dynamics suggest a cautious outlook for the near term, with significant attention needed on production and export trends.

Core Insights - ReNew Energy Global Plc reported an 84% year-over-year increase in net profit for the first half of fiscal year 2026, with total income reaching INR 79,715 million (US$ 898 million) compared to INR 54,713 million (US$ 616 million) in the same period last year [1][5]. Financial Performance - Total income for Q2 FY26 was INR 38,557 million (US$ 434 million), up from INR 29,887 million (US$ 337 million) in Q2 FY25 [5]. - Net profit for Q2 FY26 was INR 4,675 million (US$ 53 million), slightly down from INR 4,939 million (US$ 56 million) in Q2 FY25 [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA for H1 FY26 was INR 53,459 million (US$ 602 million), compared to INR 43,188 million (US$ 486 million) for H1 FY25 [5]. - Revenue from power sales for H1 FY26 was INR 51,548 million (US$ 581 million), compared to INR 48,342 million (US$ 545 million) for H1 FY25 [5]. Operational Highlights - The company's portfolio consisted of approximately 18.5 GW (+1.1 GW BESS) as of September 30, 2025, an increase from ~15.6 GW a year earlier [5]. - Commissioned capacity increased by 12.8% year-over-year to ~11.4 GW (+150 MWh BESS) as of September 30, 2025, with an additional 212 MW commissioned in October 2025 [5]. - The company expects to complete the construction of 1.6 to 2.4 GW by the end of fiscal year 2026 [4]. Manufacturing and Sales - External sales from solar module and cell manufacturing contributed INR 23,351 million (US$ 263 million) to total income for H1 FY26 [5]. - The company anticipates that external sales from solar module and cell manufacturing will contribute INR 10-12 billion to Adjusted EBITDA for FY26 [4]. Future Outlook - The company continues to expect net gains in asset sales as part of its capital recycling strategy, including INR 1-2 billion related to asset sales in the Adjusted EBITDA guidance [4].

Summary of Jinko Solar Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinko Solar (688223.SS) - **Industry**: Solar Energy Key Points Earnings Improvement - Jinko Solar upgraded from Sell to Buy due to reduced losses and improved cash flow in 3Q25, with a net loss narrowing by 33.4% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) to Rmb1,012 million [1][2] - Operating cash inflow increased to Rmb2,471 million in 3Q25, up from Rmb1,255 million in 3Q24, indicating a positive trend in cash flow management [2][14] Module Sales and Pricing - Jinko expects further earnings improvement from module sales in 2026E, driven by anti-involution measures and a rising sales mix of high-efficiency products at premium prices [1][4] - Average unit module sales price rose by 8.8% qoq to Rmb0.77/W in 3Q25, despite module shipments declining by 15.9% year-over-year (yoy) to 20.1GW [4][13] High-Efficiency Products - The company began delivering high-efficiency modules (640W or above) in 3Q25, priced at US$1-2 cents/W higher than mainstream products, with a target to increase the sales mix of these products from 5% in 2025 to 60% in 2026E [3][4] Energy Storage Systems (ESS) - Jinko achieved ESS shipments of 3.3GWh in 9M25, with plans to increase shipments to 6GWh in 2025E, up from 1GWh in 2024 [5][16] - The company aims for profit breakeven from ESS sales in 4Q25E and expects to generate profits in 2026E due to economies of scale and a higher overseas sales mix [5][16] Financial Projections - Jinko's net loss for 2026E was cut by 45%, and net profits for 2027E were lifted by 4% based on higher module price assumptions [1][19] - The DCF target price was raised by 50% to Rmb7.50/share, indicating a potential upside for investors [1][19] Market Outlook - Management predicts a 2-3% decline in global solar installations in 2026E, primarily due to a decrease in China, but expects demand growth of 5% from Europe, 10-15% from the Middle East and Latin America, and 30-40% from Southeast Asia [4][19] Cost Management - Jinko plans to reduce unit cell production costs by Rmb0.02-0.04/W in 2026E by using more copper instead of silver in busbars [3][4] - SG&A expenses decreased, contributing to the narrowing of operating losses [13] Financial Summary - Revenue for 3Q25 was Rmb16,155 million, down 34.1% yoy, with gross profit of Rmb607 million and a gross profit margin of 3.8% [12][13] - The company recorded a significant decline in net profit margins, with a forecasted net profit of -Rmb1,143 million for 2026E and a projected recovery to Rmb2,401 million in 2027E [6][21] Other Notable Information - Jinko's module shipments in 9M25 totaled 61.85GW, reflecting a strategic decision to lower capacity utilization to mitigate oversupply pressure [15] - The company has a strong order backlog for ESS, with 80% of orders coming from overseas markets [5][16] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from Jinko Solar's recent conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Solar Industry - **Key Focus**: Development of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and polysilicon pricing trends Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Polysilicon Price Trends**: - The monograde polysilicon price increased by 4.2% week-over-week (WoW) to Rmb50/kg as of September 8, with current inventory at 31,000 tons, up 3% WoW [1][2] - Monthly polysilicon production is forecasted to rise by 2% month-over-month (MoM) to 128,000 tons (equivalent to 55GW) in September [1] 2. **Wafer and Cell Prices**: - N-type wafer prices for M10/G12 rose by 4.0% and 3.1% WoW to Rmb1.30 and Rmb1.65 per piece, respectively [2] - TOPcon cell prices for M10/G12 increased by 3.3% and 1.7% WoW to Rmb0.31 and Rmb0.30 per watt [2] - Module prices remained stable at Rmb0.69 and Rmb0.76 per watt for TOPcon and back contact modules, respectively [2] 3. **Module Production and Demand**: - Module production slightly declined MoM to 50GW in September, with demand primarily driven by overseas customers stockpiling due to anticipated price increases [2] 4. **Solar Glass Inventory**: - Solar glass prices remained unchanged at Rmb13.00 and Rmb20.00 per square meter for 2.0mm and 3.2mm thicknesses, respectively [3] - Inventory of solar glass decreased by 12.1% WoW to 16.13 days [3] 5. **BESS Development Action Plan**: - On September 12, China announced a BESS development action plan targeting a cumulative capacity of 180GW by 2027 [4] - The plan includes incentives for market transactions involving "renewables+BESS" projects and aims to improve the pricing mechanism for BESS [4] - As of the end of H1 2025, China's cumulative BESS capacity reached 95GW/222GWh, indicating significant growth potential in the next two years [4] 6. **Provincial Pricing Mechanism**: - Shandong province announced a mechanism price for solar projects at Rmb0.225/kWh, which is lower than the wind mechanism price of Rmb0.319/kWh [5] - For eligible solar projects, 80% of total power generation can be priced at the mechanism price, while the remainder will be priced through market transactions [5] Additional Important Insights 1. **Risks to the Solar Industry**: - Major downside risks include slower-than-expected growth in installed renewable energy capacity, larger-than-expected tariff cuts, and competition from other power resources [23] - Upside risks involve faster-than-expected capacity growth, smaller-than-expected tariff cuts, and market share gains for solar energy [24] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The current market dynamics suggest a potential for increased demand for BESS due to improved transaction mechanisms and pricing strategies [4] This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call regarding the China solar industry, focusing on pricing trends, production forecasts, and strategic initiatives in the BESS sector.

Summary of China Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Solar Industry - **Date**: 15 August 2025 Key Points Polysilicon Prices and Production - Polysilicon price remained stable at Rmb44/kg as of the week starting 11 August 2025, with a current inventory of 24.2kt, reflecting a 4% week-over-week increase [1] - Monthly polysilicon production is projected to rise by 16% month-over-month to 125kt (equivalent to 54GW) in August [1] Wafer and Cell Prices - N-type wafer prices for M10/G12 remained unchanged at Rmb1.20/1.55 per piece week-over-week [2] - Utilization rates for tier-1 wafer manufacturers were stable at 50% and 46%, while vertical integrators operated at 50-80% [2] - TOPcon cell prices for M10/G12 also remained flat at Rmb0.29 per watt [2] - Module prices held steady at Rmb0.68 for TOPcon and Rmb0.76 for Back Contact modules, with module production flat at 52GW in August [2] Solar Glass Inventory and Pricing - Solar glass prices remained unchanged at Rmb10.75 for 2.0mm and Rmb18.75 for 3.2mm [3] - Soda ash prices were stable at Rmb1,350 per tonne [3] - Solar glass inventory decreased to 25.32 days, indicating a potential price increase in the coming weeks [3] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: - Slower-than-expected growth in installed domestic renewable energy capacity [21] - Larger-than-expected tariff cuts for renewable energy projects [21] - Increased competition from other power resources due to future power reforms [21] - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected growth in installed domestic renewable energy capacity [22] - Smaller-than-expected tariff cuts for renewable energy projects [22] - Market share gains for solar energy compared to other power resources under future reforms [22] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the stability in pricing across the solar supply chain, which may indicate a balanced market environment [1][2][3] - The increase in polysilicon production suggests a positive outlook for the solar industry, potentially leading to greater capacity and efficiency in solar energy generation [1] - The decline in solar glass inventory could signal upcoming price adjustments, which may impact overall project costs in the solar sector [3]